• A Further Note On Goalies And Bad Four Game Stretches

    by Tyler Dellow • October 15, 2013 • Hockey • 18 Comments

    Neither Colby Cosh nor a commenter going by the name Bank Shot were too impressed with my argument that Devan Dubnyk’s probably going to be ok.

    Cosh (I’m aggregating some tweets here):

    Still think message of McHockey’s table is “A majority of goalies who are THIS bad even briefly are on their way out”

    If the signal were totally meaningless, your filter would have yielded a *random* mix of goalies, including some excellent ones

    (Dubnyk) just… did something that’s overwhelmingly characteristic of the sick, aged, and doomed?

    Bank Shot:

    B) What do you make of the fact that this has only happened to 5 goalies under the age of 30. And 4 of those goalies are not starters? Does this say something about the company Dubnyk is in?

    Why hasn’t it happened to guys like Price, Fleury, or Ward who have played perhaps double the games of most of these goalies in the same time frame?

    The criteria I used for this, comparing goalies to their career norms once they had faced 3,000 shots is kind of problematic, in that it means that my focus on goalies who saw a save percentage at least 80 points below the norm was kind of impacted due to the low save percentages of the immediate post-lockout II period. For a guy like Fleury, who got lit up for a while post-lockout, his career save percentage is lower than someone like Dubnyk’s. This makes it harder for Fleury to have a bad stretch that met my standards, because the save percentage is higher now but he built his career save percentage, in part, in a lower save percentage era.

    One of the things I drew some comfort with in respect of Dubnyk as the season began was how good his numbers have been relative to goalies who’ve played 100 games over the past three years. Here’s a piece of that table:

    Screen Shot 2013-10-15 at 4.37.56 PM

    What if we asked ourselves what the worst four game stretches during the past three seasons from the goalies between .910 and .920 on that list look like? Do they look like what Dubnyk’s struggled through (111 SA, 92 GA, .829 SV%)?

    Screen Shot 2013-10-15 at 4.25.51 PM

    Yep.

    You can draw your own conclusions but I’ve yet to see anyone produce a sensible argument that Dubnyk’s start tells us anything. The point that Cosh and Bank Shot raised was fair but these sorts of things happen, even to good goalies.

    Email Tyler Dellow at mc79hockey@gmail.com

    About Tyler Dellow

    18 Responses to A Further Note On Goalies And Bad Four Game Stretches

    1. Brennan
      October 15, 2013 at

      An awful lot of Brian Elliott in that data, as well as Ilya Bryzgalov. Kind of makes you laugh when you see that, and then you see people saying “they are clear upgrades to what we have”

    2. Robert
      October 15, 2013 at

      You have to be dubnyk’s family member or one of his best buds if your sticking up for him this much. He is horrible. Good major junior player, maybe number one goalie in the AHL at best. Everyone used his stats last year to argue that he is the number one goalie for this team, now let’s use his stats from this year and try to make that argument . Dubnyk is no star calibre goalie, and has no right be the number one goalie of any nhl team at all . He has had his chance, and he has proved himself to be who is today . There is no mystery to who he is as a professional . He has already answered all those question

      • Mark-LW
        October 15, 2013 at

        So the 3615 shots he faced prior to this four game stretch means nothing. The last 111 shots he faced however..

      • Dave
        October 16, 2013 at

        I know, right? You’d have to be in love with Devan Dubnyk to even bother looking at meaningful statistics that these sorts of things happen to every goalie in the league. There is just something objectively inferior about him, but it can only be picked out by armchair GMs who think making a reckless trade 7 games in is a good idea.

        “People use his stats from last year to back him up” – his stats the year before that, and the year before that are remarkably similar. But yeah, as we all know there are never statistical anomalies early in a season (The Colarado Avalanche are going to win the cup, with all-star netminder Varlamov!)

        But you’re right, we should blame Dubnyk. Maybe we can get that Ben Scrivens guy from LA – his stats are even better than Jonathan Quick’s! Guaranteed upgrade!

    3. Mark-LW
      October 15, 2013 at

      I don’t see Ryan Miller’s bad stretch in that table

      • bone
        October 15, 2013 at

        There’s no Reimer, Howard, Lehtonen, or Niemi. So I think he’s saying that they haven’t had a four game stretch worse than .840.

        • Mark-LW
          October 15, 2013 at

          Makes sense

        • Peter
          October 15, 2013 at

          2011 James Reimer 4 game stretch: SA-102, GA-15, SV%-.853
          2010 Jimmy Howard 4 game stretch: SA-83, GA-13, SV%-.843
          2010 Kari Lethonen 4 game stretch: SA-92, GA-14, SV%-.848
          2011 Antti Niemi 4 game stretch: SA-91, GA-14, SV%-.846

      • Peter
        October 15, 2013 at

        2011 Ryan Miller 4 game stretch: SA-101, GA-15, SV%-.851

    4. james
      October 15, 2013 at

      I don’t have the numbers here but Fleury lost his starter job last playoffs due to a bad run but was immediately stated to be the starter going forward and is looking great now. Luongo is notorious for his bad Octobers but usually has red hit runs in Novener to even out his season stats.

      Not saying this will happen but it’s not out of the question for Dubby to have a four game stretch including a couple of shutouts and a total GAA of under 1.00 at some point this season which would average out his stats to at least middling goaltending.

    5. October 16, 2013 at

      What is the combined win/loss record over those four game stretches?

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    8. Sledder
      October 16, 2013 at

      I think you are also forgetting that when Dubynk had his good stretch last year, the Oilers were already out of the post season race! No pressure, No Expectations! Give him ten more games, then go get Theodore for the rest of the season

      • dawgbone
        October 17, 2013 at

        Did you even bother to look this up?

        Dubnyk’s best stretch last year was right near the beginning of the season where over 9 games he put up a .943 sv%.

        When the Oilers were already out of the post season race, Dubnyk only posted a .908 sv%.

    9. D
      October 18, 2013 at

      Good stuff Tyler. First time reading your blog. LT sent us this way.

    10. Bank shot
      October 19, 2013 at

      These numbers make me feel a little better about Dubnyk. At least he’s not lumped in with career backups and over the hills.

      I’m still not sold on him being the answer moving forward. Hopefully he proves his doubters wrong.

    11. Brad
      October 24, 2013 at

      Great stuff. I’m hoping that when MacT read this he noticed your banner and laughed.

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