I’ve talked a little bit about how I’m following the 5v5 Corsi% that the Oilers put up pretty closely in the early going because I’ve got an idea that if the Oilers are going to make a big move this year, it’s going to involve a posting a much better Corsi% than last year’s abysmal 44.6%. It’s going to have to be so much better that we should see signs of this early – the Oilers consistently putting up performances that surpass or are near the best performances that they put up last year.
I went through every three game stretch that the Oilers played last year and calculated the Corsi%. So games 1-3, 2-4 etc. That gives me 46 stretches. Then I counted how many times they had a three game stretch between 36% and 37%, 37% and 38% etc. That produces this graph.
You can see that the three game stretches are clustered around the mean of 44.6%. 32 of their 46 three game stretches saw them post a 5v5 Corsi% of between 42% and 47%. So about 69.5% of the time, they were within 2.5 points of where they ended up over their previous three games.
Through the first three games of this year, the Oilers have posted a 50% Corsi%. It’s certainly possible that they caught a hot streak – they’ve played two home games – but the circumstances don’t suggest one to me. They’ve played two teams that are historically good teams in terms Corsi% and they’ve done it without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (for one game) and Sam Gagner for three. Yes, they’re 1-2-0 but the shape of things is different than last year. It’s very early but putting up a 50% Corsi% over three games is so far removed from what they did last year that it’s a pretty promising sign.
Promising signs.Email Tyler Dellow at firstname.lastname@example.org