This is a list of goalies who’ve played in at least 100 games since 2010-11, sorted by save percentage.
See where Devan Dubnyk is? Right in the middle? Three years on a brutal team with people who seemed to be actively trying to light defensive zone fires and he’s right in the middle. Does he let in some goals that look bad at times? Absolutely. Here’s the thing though: as a guy who’s been doing this stats stuff for a decade or so, I’ve learned a few things. Here’s two of them: 1) All goals count the same on the scoreboard. Picassos or that guy who paints pictures of Jesus out of poop, it doesn’t matter. 2) Two games tells you nothing about a goalie.
Let me say this clearly: if you think Dubnyk’s a crappy goaltender based on the last three years, you are wrong. He stops pucks at a pretty league average rate for starting goalies. That is the job – it’s nothing to do with style points. He’s done that behind a poor defensive team – I’m not a believer in big score effects but I do believe they can be worth a few points of save percentage either way. He hasn’t had one of the league’s easy jobs.
By eye, a bunch of the crappy goals Dubnyk’s let in through the first have been tipped or had screens. There are times when a team fails because an honest to goodness weakness manifests itself. There are other times when teams fail because players are having a rough couple of games. Based on the last three years with Dubnyk, this is the latter, not the former.Email Tyler Dellow at firstname.lastname@example.org