Man, there’s nothing I love more than when the Oilers make a trade and proceed to do that thing where they offer credulous reporters off the record quotes that cast the organization in a good light. I was surprised by Tychkowski’s suggestion yesterday that the Oilers weren’t willing to qualify Denis Grebeshkov but Joanne Ireland has something a little more solid on that point today:
The 26-year-old defenceman will be a restricted free agent at season’s end. In order to retain his rights, the Predators will have to qualify his $3.15-million US contract, something the Oilers were not prepared to do.
I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again today: I can’t think of a single example of a player who has proven enough to get the deal that Grebeshkov got from Tambellini last summer not being qualified. (After I wrote this, Earl Sleek pointed out Paul Kariya not getting qualified at $10MM in 2003 by the Ducks, but that strikes me as being a little different.) I’m not saying that this is right, I’m only saying that it seems to me that such an unusual claim from the Oilers calls for a little clarification. Does Tambellini think he made a gross error in signing Grebeshkov to this deal last summer? Would Grebeshkov not have been qualified in order to clear up some salary cap room because they have so much dead money tied up in guys? If so, what happened to the green light to send guys to the minors?
There’s another meme that’s popping up in the local rags that bears some pointing out before tomorrow’s trade deadline. Matheson:
Obviously, Ethan Moreau, Steve Staios and Fernando Pisani are most likely to go if there are takers, with the Oilers likely having to take back a contract for the first two veterans.
The Oilers captain, defenceman Steve Staios, and forwards like Robert Nilsson, Patrick O’Sullivan, Fernando Pisani and Marc Pouliot are all being shopped. Tambellini is at the bottom of a rebuilding curve, and would take very little in exchange for most of these guys.
If those players don’t move — and unless the Oilers take a bad contract back, it is likely many won’t — that will paint a clear picture of the value of those players league-wide.
Matheson and Spector have both been around for a long time and have some sources. I find it a little interesting that they’ve both made a point of saying that the Oilers might have to take money back in order to move those players. I’ve been very skeptical of the ability of the Oilers to find takers for them but that’s been premised on the assumption that the Oilers wouldn’t be willing to take on someone else’s problem - what’s the point of just swapping headaches when the owner has gone on the radio and said that Tambellini has the green light to bury players in the AHL or buy them out?
Tomorrow’s going to be the last interesting Oilers day between now and the draft lottery in April. The thought of Steve Tambellini competing in an arbitrage contest with other general managers is not exactly confidence inspiring.
again - obviously, not qualifying grebeshkov doesn’t make any sense, but in Rand McNally where no one’s at all interested in grebeshkov for anything beyond a token return (and hamburgers eat people), had they reached july 1 with him still on the reserve list, they wouldn’t've qualified him.
Tambellini will know better than I whether any of his players would have been claimed on waivers, but I’d have used the Olympic break to gauge the rough value of Staios, Moreau, Nilsson, maybe even O’Sullivan. If they have trade value, trade them prior to the deadline and if they maybe have interest but nothing solid as far as trade value, I’d have waived them all yesterday or today, hoping that some team would pick them up instead of trading a draft pick for a similar player.
Oh boy. This team is just a mess. I guess we are going to see how badly Tambellini can foul this up. I suppose I’ve been in denial.
The best thing I can say about the Grebs deal is that it’s largely inconsequential. Unless of course you thought that the Oilers could turn into a playoff club next year, I suppose this deal hurts that. But they needed to add 4-6 players that were all improvements at lower cap hits. To be polite, that was always a pipe dream especially with this management.
Incidentally, you stated a few posts back that you liked the Oilers’ top six forwards. I can only count four.
JP Dumont is another guy who had his arbitration award walked away from.
I guess it’s important to note that under club-elected arbitration the very lowest award possible is 85% of this year’s salary. So I guess if you’re Tambellini and you know that your absolute best case is 2.67 million, do you know that you’d walk away from arbitration no matter what?
If that’s the case, better to get something for him. But if you could make the case for $2.67 million then he’s probably going to cover the bet.
These are all great points, but do you really think Tambellini actually has taken these factors into account? This is reasoning that’s likely far beyond his grasp.
The fact that we are even discussing the plausibility of the Oilers not qualifying Grebeshkov this summer means that Ireland et al. have successfully passed on the spin.
Prior to the trade the thought had not been discussed at all, mostly because it is understood that Grebeshkov’s contact is not unreasonable. Now, as Tyler so aptly points out, thanks to a few off the record quotes we’re questioning 35’s monetary value.
“The way it is in Edmonton, it’s like communism here, its their way only”.
Incidentally, you stated a few posts back that you liked the Oilers’ top six forwards. I can only count four.
Yeah, I guess I figure that they could find a couple of cheap pieces to slot into the top six this summer. Probably a pipe dream. There probably is too much to be done here for a single summer, particularly when you consider that I’m approaching this trade deadline like a NASCAR fan and waiting to be entertained by the accidents.
I remember thinking last summer that there was a possibility he wouldn’t cover the bet ($3.15M always seemed high to me) and that the Oilers wouldn’t want to qualify him. Of course, I also didn’t realize he was an RFA, and figured he’d either go for nothing to another NHL team or go for nothing to a KHL team, rather than there being the possibility that he would go for something (more than a second rounder) to an NHL team, so there’s a gaping hole in that analysis, and suddenly this move makes a ton less sense.