It starts at about the 8:45 mark. To clarify a few points:
a) It’s a damned shame that CBC didn’t get my entire Twitter backdrop up, which is as follows:

b) I wasn’t really commenting pro/con on Kelly Hrudey’s hair - although he may well be the most notable hair guy in the NHL in the post-helmet era, what with the head band and now this - so much as I was commenting on how amazing it looked in HD. You can see every individual strand of hair. Amazing work by the CBC hair people.
c) Much as I’d like to take the credit for Dustin Penner, I think Ron’s confusing me with Derek Zona - I limited my praise of him last year to “He’s probably a better option when you’re down one late in the game than Ethan Moreau” which is a universal truth, like “All men are created equal” or “Signing Nikolai Khabibulin for four years was a bad idea.
* * *
You can always tell when you’re dealing with an old pro. It’s a timing thing. I wrote a post offering a little snark about Robin Brownlee’s proclamation of JDD as “a competent NHL starter” a few days back. Since I wrote that, JDD has cruised along at a .906 save percentage, which sucks. Small sample, to be sure, but nothing to suggest that he’s a competent NHL starter. He’s let in a ton of just crap goals along the way - Giordano for Calgary and then all of the goals last night.
Brownlee though, he’s an old pro - so old he doesn’t know how to hyperlink. So when does he post his detailed attack on my logic? Immediately after JDD led the Oilers past the mighty Maple Leafs - currently a point ahead of the Oilers despite playing what is basically an AHL schedule and holds them in against the Flames in Calgary. I’m a young guy (although from a different generation than Elliotte) and know how to hyperlink, so here’s Robin’s piece.
Not long ago, I praised Deslauriers for, in my estimation, proving his many critics wrong during a 10-game stretch. That prompted some numbers nerds at another website to take shots at me for doing it — a 10-game sample size, that’s absurd, they sniffed. Not surprising to me, really. I’ve made it known I don’t put much faith in their numbers and they, in return, enjoy making it clear they don’t put much weight in my words. Fine. Good. Whatever.
To be clear: I think that Robin is a fine writer and good journalist. I just think he’s lousy at analysis.
I said it before, I said it in that piece last week and I’ll say it again after watching him stiff the Flames on a night the Oilers should have lost by a half-dozen goals: Deslauriers is an NHL starter. I’m not basing that on 10 games, I’m basing that opinion on eight years of watching him stop pucks — something I maybe didn’t make clear enough in the item that had the geeks scoffing at my take.
Now, in all fairness to me, here’s what Brownlee wrote that set off the initial piece: “I don’t know about you, but from where I sit Jeff Deslauriers has pretty much shoved it up the backsides of his critics once and for all as to his ability to be a competent NHL starter during the 10 straight games he’s played since Nik Khabibulin’s back gave out because of wallet strain.” So, even if Brownlee wasn’t basing his opinion of JDD on ten games, he was basically saying that everyone else should. The initial criticism - ten games isn’t anywhere near enough for JDD to prove anything to anyone - is still entirely valid.
But let’s take a look at Brownlee’s other statement - “I’m basing that opinion on eight years of watching him stop pucks.” How much JDD has Brownlee actually seen? Well, Robin’s been to training camp every year. So he would have seen JDD there. I don’t think he was covering the QMJHL so I doubt he saw him there. He covered the Roadrunners in 2004-05, if I recall correctly. JDD played 22 games there. After that, JDD was out of Edmonton, and I’d guess that Brownlee didn’t see him outside of training camp until he returned to Edmonton to stay. When Brownlee says that he’s basing his opinion “on eight years of watching him stop pucks”, he hasn’t actually seen anything like that. He’s seen the guy play maybe 50 games - getting hammered all the while. As Jonathan Willis pointed out (another hyperlink!), JDD seems like a good quote and has a tendency to acknowledge when he’s played poorly, which the reporters probably appreciate. I’d imagine that doesn’t hurt him in Brownlee’s eyes either.
What Oilers fans are seeing in this stretch with Nikolai Khabibulin out is Deslauriers emerging as a guy who can be the No. 1 puck-stopper for this franchise for years to come.What I’m seeing now is a continuation of what I’ve seen over those eight years, not just the 22 games he’s played this season. Deslauriers numbers, as an aside, are 9-11-2 with a 2.81 goals-against average and saves percentage of .908 . That’s better in my books than just OK on a 15th-place team that can barely get out of its own way on many nights.
I don’t see this particular edition of the Oilers as being markedly worse than its recent predecessors. The 07-08 team in particular was horrific through the first 40 or 50 games. JDD’s .908 (now .906) would be the worst save percentage by an Oiler starting goalie since Jussi Markannen’s .880 in 2005-06. As others have noted, he was riding an unsustainable PK save percentage - that recently collapsed and we’re left with a guy who is barely above replacement level.
This is an interesting debate in part because I’ve never seen a beat writer so publicly marry himself to a hockey player. I don’t think JDD is an NHL level starting goalie - it would surprise me more if he was an NHL starter in two years than it would if he was out of the league although anything can happen - I just think that there isn’t enough there to support an argument that he’ll be a starter. For Brownlee to refer to him as “…a guy who can be the No. 1 puck-stopper for this franchise for years to come…”, well, that’s pretty strong stuff. If JDD doesn’t pan out, Brownlee’s pretty much guaranteed he’ll hear “Shame that they let JDD go” whenever he has anything to say about the Oilers goaltending for the next 15 years. It’ll be interesting.
Tyler, If you ever want a video to start at a particular time, add one of these to the end:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRPAsMJ7CUs#t=8m45s
I gotta say: Dellow->Desjardins->Corsi has a nice ring to it.
Was that your first mention on HNIC?
Third, I think.
I noticed your Twitter background a few weeks ago. Def. one of the best I’ve seen. What’s the story?
Way to go De L’eau. Hrudey does have a nice head of hair, though my interpretation was that you were commenting on your new tv’s picture. If you watched football you could have commented about the grass and avoided this whole debacle.
Congrats, Tyler.
I don’t know about the long-term ramifications of Brownlee’s statement, thoguh. Remember back in Mathieu Garon, Yr. I where everybody (myself included) was saying ’sign him now for 3MM per season’? You were dead-set against it, IIRC, and you were right.
Which, btw, is when I really started to pay attention to what you were saying about goaltenders.
Anyhow, the point is that (most) people forget all about this sort of thing.
@JW: Trust me. Someone’s going to remember.
Brownlee Is a good writer but he’s got a whole tonne of opinions that are out to lunch on a Rockerfeller’s credit card.
Much as I’d like to take the credit for Dustin Penner, I think Ron’s confusing me with Derek Zona.
Who does that complement?
@eyebleaf: Just a pic I found, courtesy of Radley Balko, I think. Cosh’ is my favourite one that I’ve seen:
You finally get credit for all the material you provide the hotstove and HNIC afterhours and it’s for perhaps your most asinine contribution.
And I mean that in a good way!
Hearing your name on the air is like hearing a buddy get props, and I’ve never met your soory ass.
Long time coming to say the least, Tyler.
I have to add that my favourite line from MacLean was how you borrowed most of your shit from Gabe Dejardins, when it was the likes of Vic and yourself who were providing in depth stats before behind the net was ever born.
Mass love to Gabe for everything he’s provided since then.
It would of been more accurate if that dude with the frodted tips sitting in the bubble in
Toronto had said something along the lines of: “credit to Ron MacLean, who gets all his shit from Tyler Dellow on www.mc79hockey.com”.\
But whatecer. “Corsi” was actually stated on the Canadian airwaves… every bartender I’ve been arguing with that have boldly stated Doughty is better than Bouwmeester can suck MY dick.
We’re almost there.
“every bartender I’ve been arguing with that have boldly stated Doughty is better than Bouwmeester can suck MY dick.”
Yeah, the exclusion of Bouwmeester is a head scratcher. I could see them wanting two good RH shooting PP guys for the San Jose PP unit. Thornton specifically asked SJ for two RH PP pointmen a summer or two ago. But surely the left side PP role will fall to Weber, he has a terrific one timer. Maybe the best in the league.
I’ve read a few places that Lowe was scouting the D, and in any case it makes sense that it is an area that he would have a lot of input. Since this makes about exactly as much sense as including Eric Brewer on the 2002 Olympic squad … I’m going to guess that Lowe took the opportunity to snub a division rival.
Burke looks to have done the same thing with Gomez and Connelly. I can’t think of any other reason for that call either. Check out Gomez’s scoring chance numbers courtesy of Olivier … at EV, PP and PK. Crazy good compared to his teammates. Just off the hook.
And to be fair, you’ll hear about it when JDD does pan out . . .
“you’ll hear about it when JDD does pan out”
I’m not sure the Oilers think he will {nor DD].
If they did, they should’ve signed Roloson for 2, or Biron for 1, not The Wall forever.
Fantastic pictures, Tyler.
And as a Leafs fan, it hurt to lose to JDD. And the Oilers in general. The worst of our many humiliations.
Can we define “panning out” as it pertains to JDD?
It’s like I said over at ON, it’s been awhile since we’ve seen an Oilers kid goalie grow up on the job - and I guess we haven’t really seen one since Fuhr and I certainly wasn’t old enough to see that - so I don’t know how it looks but I don’t know if I believe that JDD is going to be an above average starter.
And Fuhr was a lot better to start off with considering he unofficially led all NHL starters in save percentage as a rookie and was the runner up for the Vezina.
On Bouwmeester … I take it all back. Just checked behindthenet and he looks to be off the rails. Damn! Corsi when the score is close, but still bad. The scoring chances after 20 games were poor too.
And on JDD, he’s doing better than any of us expected. The fact that the Oilers have been pretty good about not taking penalties helps his save% for sure. He looks like he covers all the bottom of the net when he goes down, still, it’s an awkward style. Someone else pointed this out, but sometimes it does look like he’s being run by a mad puppeteer. If anyone spots John Malkovich in the rafters of Rexall … be sure to let me know.
Plus he’s never stopped pucks as a pro at a level that inspires confidence. There are a lot of excuses for that, but no compelling ones.
If Brownlee is willing to bet money that JDD will have an above average save% over any timeframe, esp EVsave% (or just level the field for goalies who see a bigger share of PP shots) … take it, Tyler. And Robin would be well advised to invent a new standard for goalie evaluation, something vague and foolish and nearly impossible to pin down. Because, rolling forward, it strikes me as damn unlikely that the facts are going to be his friend.
Vic: Re: Gomez
He is a very interesting player. Gets an absolute assload of Offensive Zone faceoffs (55% at ES per Desjardins vs 45% for Pleks, 43% Metropolit and 46% for Lapierre), and generally plays some pretty darn good wingers (except a rough patch in december where he had to carry Sergeï Kostitsyn and Matt D’Agostini along). So you could say he is fed the finest food.
But he does eat massive amounts of ice time without ever running out of gas and, against the toughest comp amongst the habs centers (why is Pleks listed as a LW on BtheN?), he can be relied upon to turn those valuable assets (Zone Starts and Linemates) into a significant amount of scoring chances. Take that big oaf, Pouliot: dude couldn’t crack the Wild’s 3rd line, and now he actually got 7SC against the Sabres.
I mean, Chris Drury, really?
Vic: On Bouwmeester … I take it all back. Just checked behindthenet and he looks to be off the rails. Damn! Corsi when the score is close, but still bad. The scoring chances after 20 games were poor too.
We noticed that, the funny thing is though that we all saw him real good in the early games. And I don’t think we’re a starry-eyed crowd at Kent’s blog. Bouwmeester wasn’t impressive in a Phaneuf-gains-the-zone way but more like a poor-man’s-Lidstrom way.
I do know that he had probably the roughest ride on the Calgary blue. Consistently starting in the D-zone more than anyone else, and for the first 15 or so games he was the man assigned to play behind Iginla and Jokinen against the opposition’s best. And the Iggy/Jokinen duo, when together, has been a black hole for the Flames all season long.
(For the record I think it’s Jokinen’s fault, he just doesn’t do the things a centre ought to. But Iggy’s probably lost a step as well, he just doesn’t win as many puck battles as he once did).
Over the last little while (15-20 games I believe) Regehr and Phaneuf have gotten more (but not all) of the tough assignments, and Bouwmeester’s scoring chance numbers at EV have turned around. Kent did an overview at his blog that illustrated this.
But can’t even Corsi, etc. flatter a player over a short period of time?
Who here or anywhere would rate Doughty over Bouwmeester?
Honestly, aren’t we looking at the biggr picture?
re: Gomez and team USA - I don’t think that has anything to do with division rivals. Gomez has a unique game that I’m not sure would translate well to international play. And if Gomez is generating scoring chances for himself, well, he has terrible hands (one of the lowest s%’s this side of jason blake).
Burke challenged Gomez after US training camp that he’ll have to do certain things to make the team. While Gomez can generate scoring chances, he turns the puck over at both bluelines a fair amount and isn’t always the strongest player on the backcheck.
Connolly’s exclusion, I don’t understand. I guess Burke figures that team USA may as well just have 12 forwards who shoot the puck too much.
And to be fair, you’ll hear about it when JDD does pan out . . .
I’m sure I will, although I’m not sure why. Here’s the thing: I see a spectrum of potential outcomes for JDD. I’m making up numbers but say it looks like this:
80% - Fringe NHLer/career minor leaguer
15% - Glenn Healey type career as backup
5% - Career as an NHL starter
I don’t claim to have any ability to tell you which of these outcomes will occur; I only know that guys with JDD’s record of performance are overwhelmingly more likely to not have NHL careers of any substance. I acknowledge it’s possible he might be one of the guys who is able to overcome this; I guess I wonder why if he’s so strong and mentally tough it hasn’t shown up in his performance to date.
What surprises me is that you’re so certain that he’s going to be a legitimate number one starting goalie. I don’t think anyone can predict things with any degree of certainty; you can only talk about the probability of certain outcomes. Time won’t tell us whether the certainty was warranted, although it will tell us whether you avoid hearing about JDD forever.
As far as what panning out means, it seems to me that it should mean a combination of a) a team electing to use JDD as a starter for two years (as opposed to having that decision made for them, as has happened this year) and b) JDD actually being useful.
Olivier - Plekanec used to be a LW. I downloaded the positions from the NHL site three years ago and I’ve been too lazy to change them.
Btw, I have no idea when that was that Plekanec was a LW.
Gabriel: They used him on the LW in his first year; that’s when he ate Pierre Dagenais’s lunch.
Then he ate Mkie Ribeiro’s lunch.
Lastly, don’t tell anybody, but I suspect he, and not Gomez, ate Koivu’s lunch last summer.
Dude has been perennially sold short and has made a nice career up to now of making us all look like fool. He keeps drawing aces on a contract year and I say good for him.
Good to know. I got a new list and fixed about 50 guys or so. Positions are a lot more fluid than I ever thought.
As far as goaltending evaluation goes, I’m reminded of the ‘GAA under 3.00′ line we heard when the Oilers brought in Khabibulin.
I’m more optimistic than you, Tyler. I’d say 5% starter, 45% career backup, 50% Scott Clemmensen.
What’s the chance Mike Comrie sleeps with his wife and we trade him for Tom Gilbert?
Thanks R O.
That makes things look better, probably Calgary’s best defender with that considered. Still, you expect a guy like that to be rising above the field despite the difficult circumstances of his icetime.
Pronger was about even in +/- at 5v5 as an Oiler, worse than JayBo relative to his teammates. But his underlying numbers were the best on team (on-ice shots +/-, didn’t have blocked and missed shot data then), edging out Smyth and Horcoff. And he played tough minutes, crazily so down the final stretch of the season. MacTavish was even shorting him on PP time late in the season, so as to get him out for the ever important first shift after a PK (like you see with Lidstrom under Babcock).
Neidermayer isn’t rocking the world anymore either. Context considered, I’m sure that Earl Sleek could show us that he’s the Ducks’ best defender, and I’m sure he’d be right. Still, he’s not driving the results.
Look at a guy like Visnovsky … they play him with a terrible D partner (Smid) and he doesn’t sink, in fact he makes Smid look good. Without microanalyzing his game, the ice just tilts the right way when he’s out there. When he’s on the ice, since he became an Oiler, the Oiler are a mile better than when he’s on the bench. If that’s a coincidence, it’s a fucking belter.
Team Canada has a LOT of famous defencemen, but not a whole hell of a lot of guys that are driving the results on their teams. Beyond Keith, you could swap out the rest for other guys without affecting the fortunes of the team, methinks.
Bouwmeester has been an interesting case thus far. For example, his scoring chance differential seemed to be outperforming his corsi rate. That might be an artifact of sample size, but it’s something to watch.