mc79hockey.com - bullshit concepts that dont elucidate or create an “ALL SEEING EYE” like baseball BULLSHIT in the chaos of hockey » Scoring Chances: G36 Blues vs Oilers, Dec 21st

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Scoring Chances: G36 Blues vs Oilers, Dec 21st

By Dennis

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20540

Team	Period	Time	Note	EDM						Opponent
EDM	1	18:15	67	24	32	37	40	67	89	15	18	20	28	43	50	5v5
EDM	1	14:26	32 SH	19	32	40	44	77		9	20	28	42	50	74	4v5
STL	1	12:56	Goal	5	22	40	46	71	89	5	21	26	46	50	57	5v5
STL	1	10:30		13	24	32	37	40	89	7	10	22	44	46	50	5v5
EDM	1	10:21	13	13	24	32	37	40	89	6	7	10	22	28	50	5v5
EDM	1	10:20	Goal 89	13	24	32	37	40	89	6	7	10	22	28	50	5v5
EDM	1	6:35	32	13	24	32	37	40	89	6	18	20	44	50	57	5v5
EDM	1	5:03	19	19	22	40	44	46	77	6	7	10	22	44	50	5v5
EDM	2	19:27	27	10	12	27	40	44	77	5	7	10	22	46	50	5v5
EDM	2	19:21	12	10	12	27	40	44	77	5	7	10	22	46	50	5v5
EDM	2	18:08	89	13	24	32	37	40	89	15	18	20	28	43	50	5v5
EDM	2	17:26	27	10	12	27	40	44	77	5	7	10	22	46	50	5v5
STL	2	17:08	Goal	10	12	27	40	44	77	5	7	10	22	46	50	5v5
EDM	2	16:19	67	5	16	18	40	67	71	6	20	21	44	50	57	5v5
EDM	2	14:42	Goal 27	5	10	12	27	40	77	5	7	10	22	46	50	5v5
STL	2	6:31	PP Goal	5	10	24	27	40		7	10	20	22	28	50	4v5
STL	2	5:42		12	27	37	40	71	89	5	21	26	46	50	57	5v5
STL	2	5:40		12	27	37	40	71	89	5	21	26	46	50	57	5v5
STL	2	3:57	PP	5	10	24	27	40		6	9	21	42	50	74	4v5
STL	2	3:31	PP Goal	5	10	24	27	40		6	9	21	42	50	74	4v5
STL	2	2:53	Goal	13	32	40	44	77	89	18	20	43	44	50	57	5v5
EDM	2	0:18	PP 37	10	12	19	37	40	71	18	44	46	50	74		5v4
STL	3	17:59	Goal PP	5	16	18	24	40		7	10	20	22	28	50	4v5
EDM	3	16:52	46	5	19	22	40	46	71	15	18	20	28	43	50	5v5
STL	3	14:48		5	10	12	27	40	71	5	9	42	46	50	74	5v5
EDM	3	11:20	27	12	16	27	40	44	77	6	7	10	22	44	50	5v5
EDM	3	4:22	19 SH	19	24	32	37	40		6	15	18	20	28	50	4v5
STL	3	3:59	Goal PP	19	32	40	44	77		5	15	20	21	44	50	4v5
EDM	3	3:36	13	5	13	32	40	71	89	21	26	28	43	50	57	5v5
EDM	2	2:36	10	5	10	12	27	40	71	5	21	26	46	50	57	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	L. SMID	16:01	5	2	0:00	0	0	3:10	0	4
10	S. HORCOFF	13:23	5	2	2:31	1	0	2:04	0	3
12	R. NILSSON	14:05	6	4	2:31	1	0	0:00	0	0
13	A. COGLIANO	9:52	5	2	1:20	0	0	0:35	0	0
16	R. POTULNY	11:18	2	0	0:59	0	0	2:19	0	1
18	E. MOREAU	12:49	1	0	1:07	0	0	1:53	0	1
19	P. O’SULLIVAN	10:08	2	0	2:00	1	0	1:31	2	1
22	J. JACQUES	9:08	2	1	0:51	0	0	0:00	0	0
24	S. STAIOS	15:45	5	1	0:00	0	0	3:55	1	4
27	D. PENNER	14:09	6	4	2:13	0	0	2:01	0	3
32	R. STONE	11:16	6	2	1:01	0	0	1:29	2	1
37	D. GREBESHKOV	16:44	5	3	2:44	1	0	0:42	1	0
40	D. DUBNYK	48:02	15	7	5:48	1	0	6:00	2	5
44	S. SOURAY	15:17	5	2	3:04	0	0	2:08	1	1
46	Z. STORTINI	10:04	2	1	0:51	0	0	0:00	0	0
67	G. BRULE	13:25	2	0	1:06	0	0	0:00	0	0
71	L. VISNOVSKY	17:22	4	4	2:44	1	0	0:01	0	0
77	T. GILBERT	14:55	6	2	3:04	0	0	2:04	1	1
89	S. GAGNER	14:17	6	5	0:54	0	0	0:09	0	0

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	6	2	5	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
2	8	7	7	4	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0
3	4	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	18	12	15	7	1	0	0	0	2	5	0	0

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Dennis says:

December 22nd, 2009 at

Lines and D pairings:

27-10-12
32-89-13
18-16-67
22-46-19

5-71
44-77
37-24

Dustin Penner’s goal with 14:42 remaining in the second period tied the game at 2-2 and at that point the Oilers had registered 12 of the game’s first 15 chances and only one of them had come from their special teams unit: that was a first period shorthanded chance from Ryan Stone. The Blues had managed to garner two goals from their first three shots because of an over-pursuit by 5 on one of the goals along with 27 failing to cover his check all the way to the net; of course the left defenseman was 44 and he was nowhere near the goal but he’s not up for criticism so I’ll stick to blaming Penner.

5 finished off his comedy of errors with a beautiful own-goal tip past Devon Dubnyk while killing a penalty and then the floodgates opened and as far as I know the Blues are still scoring goals even though the game ended over 30 minutes ago.

Changing up the lines did lead to the Oilers posting an EV outchancing number of 15/7 - despite being outscored 3-2 - but if that wasn’t enough to dishearten a person then the Blues scoring four PP goals on just five opportunities would certainly do the trick.

Instead of listing which goals were the kid’s fault - there were a couple - or proclaiming that he didn’t make one big save - he clearly didn’t, BTW - I’ll instead point out what I believe to the biggest contradiction to the way the Oilers are handling this season’s gameplan.

The brass seems loathe to rebuild or even dare allude to it given the fact that Katz wants good PR in his bid for public money for his new moneymaker and that’s a already a tough sell when your club’s missed the playoffs for four straight seasons. Add in a potential fifth year when it looks like you tanked on purpose and perhaps the public-money-road becomes even harder to navigate. Maybe this isn’t a factor but let’s just assume that it is and thus allow me to take this somewhere.

So, OK, MGMT isn’t trading off any of the big pieces so it looks like they’re betting on a Blues-in-a-’09-run in order to make their way to the playoffs. If this is indeed true, do they really think they can do it with A: a tandem consisting of a fragile Khabby plus a mercurial JDD B: a kid tandem of JDD plus the even greener Dubnyk.

I’m not saying the club should give up on this season or that they should make some trades in order to try and stimulate a playoff run but I will say this. The Oilers right now are carrying just 21 skaters so there’s room for two more. So if they did pick up another vet goalie just in case Khabby’s done and then had to carry him, JDD and Khabby on the perhaps off-chance that Khabby turns out to be healthy, they would have the room to do it.

I don’t believe that anyone can believe they’re serious about making the playoffs if all they’re depending on in net are these two kids and a possibly broken-down Khabby and every day they don’t improve this situation is a day that tells us everything we need to know.

12-3

kinger says:

I think it’s important to view the chances in the context of the opponent (the Blues were last in the West before last night win in Vancouver) and the fact that they were playing the second game of a back to back.

Still pretty cool though, I’ll have to update my blogs EV chances running tally to 9-24-3.

An interesting note to add to this season’s horrible play is that it could be much worse if the Oilers weren’t one of the league’s most disciplined teams.

The last time I looked they were the seventh most disciplined team in the league so I am guessing they are still top 10 in this catergory.

I imagine that the PK’s poor performance hasn’t gotten as much ink as usual because of all the injuries and flu outbreaks and because the team isn’t really shorthanded enough to the point where it’s lack of execution is obvious. We know that 10’s shoulder injury hurt it’s effectiveness and it would also help if we had that secondary tough min centre - the Pahlsson or Madden type - to round out the unit.

Oh well, yet another thing for Tambellini and Mr. Breakfast - Kevin Lowe - to address.

December 23rd, 2009 at

DB: I’ll post this in LT’s forum as well just in hopes that you’ll catch it somewhere but I won’t see the next three games so you can score them if you have the stomach for it:)

My email’s dtking27@hotmail.com if you need to drop me a line for some reason regarding the chances:)

Quain says:

The one thing that I thought would change after MacTavish’s ousting (aside from Moreau getting more fourth line minutes) was the penalty kill. It just seemed like there had to be systemic issues… nope, these fuckers just can’t get it done. Off the top of my head, Horc/Penner are something like -35 in scoring chance differential per 60 and lead the team (I’m not sure what a good average SCD/60 would look like, but if you lead the team I’ll give you a pass). Andrew Cogliano is -55 (Moreau at about 48, so it’s not him doing it all). If the kid isn’t going to pot SHG, he needs to be taken off the PK for anyone else.

Now that I actually have access to my file:

PLAYER………………………SCD/60
13 - C - COGLIANO, ANDREW……..(59.12)
18 - L - MOREAU, ETHAN………..(44.78)
19 - C - O’SULLIVAN, PATRICK…..(41.28)
16 - C - POTULNY, RYAN………..(37.71)
27 - R - PENNER, DUSTIN……….(37.20)
10 - C - HORCOFF, SHAWN……….(32.54)

Horcoff seems really low (I also don’t believe this includes 3 on 5s), and Cogliano is worse than I remember. I don’t know what replacement level for a penalty killer is, but I’m pretty sure it’s better than 59 net chances against per sixty.

dawgbone says:

Quain, it can’t be good… because we know a couple of things:

1. JDD has a pretty damn good SH sv%

2. The Oilers haven’t taken a lot of penalties

3. The Oilers have given up a lot of PP goals.

You’d figure one or two of these would be correct… but they all are.

Colby Cosh says:

December 24th, 2009 at

Post-enema JDD clawed his way back to an .881 Sv% tonight, by the way. Anybody else think there should be a widget or a scoreboard for this with Brownlee’s face on it?