mc79hockey.com - bullshit concepts that dont elucidate or create an “ALL SEEING EYE” like baseball BULLSHIT in the chaos of hockey » Scoring Chances: G30 Oilers at Panthers, Dec 7th

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Scoring Chances: G30 Oilers at Panthers, Dec 7th

By Dennis

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20434

Team	Period	Time	Note	EDM						Opponent
EDM	1	15:11	89	5	27	38	67	71	89	2	9	16	27	29	44	5v5
EDM	1	14:56	89	5	27	38	67	71	89	2	9	16	27	29	44	5v5
FLA	1	12:33	post	10	19	22	24	38	44	4	9	16	27	29	43	5v5
FLA	1	10:56	PP	16	18	24	38	43		2	9	16	24	27	29	4v5
FLA	1	10:05	PP	10	27	38	44	77		4	19	29	43	67	85	4v5
FLA	1	10:04	PP	10	27	38	44	77		4	19	29	43	67	85	4v5
EDM	1	6:37	PP 19 post	10	12	16	19	38	71	2	28	29	44	85		5v4
EDM	1	5:37	18	13	18	24	38	43	46	9	16	24	27	29	43	5v5
FLA	1	5:26		5	13	18	24	38	46	9	16	24	27	29	43	5v5
EDM	1	4:58	67	5	27	38	67	71	89	4	5	11	14	22	29	5v5
FLA	1	4:20		5	27	38	67	77	89	2	19	29	44	67	85	5v5
FLA	1	4:18		5	27	38	67	77	89	2	19	29	44	67	85	5v5
FLA	1	1:12		27	38	44	67	77	89	2	19	29	44	67	85	5v5
FLA	1	1:08		27	38	44	67	77	89	2	19	29	44	67	85	5v5
FLA	1	0:28		10	19	24	27	38	43	2	11	14	28	29	44	5v5
EDM	2	19:44	19	5	10	19	22	38	71	5	11	14	24	27	29	5v5
FLA	2	18:01		24	27	38	43	67	89	2	19	28	29	44	85	5v5
FLA	2	17:30	SH	10	12	16	19	38	71	4	5	19	28	29		5v4
EDM	2	16:31	Goal PP 10	10	12	16	19	38	71	2	19	28	29	44		5v4
FLA	2	13:53	Goal	10	19	22	38	44	77	4	5	19	28	29	85	5v5
EDM	2	12:21	PP 89	27	38	44	67	77	89	2	19	28	29	44		5v4
EDM	2	11:48	PP 27	27	38	44	67	77	89	2	11	14	29	44		5v4
EDM	2	10:29	10	10	12	16	19	38	71	4	5	9	16	24	29	5v5
EDM	2	10:27	12	10	12	16	19	38	71	4	5	9	16	24	29	5v5
FLA	2	5:08	PP	5	16	18	38	44		2	9	16	24	29	67	4v5
FLA	2	3:02		5	13	16	18	38	44	4	9	16	29	43	67	5v5
FLA	2	1:07	PP	16	18	38	44	77		4	14	19	27	29	43	4v5
FLA	2	0:35		5	10	12	19	38	71	5	11	28	29	44	85	5v5
FLA	3	18:35	Goal PP	10	24	27	38	43		14	19	24	27	29	43	4v5
EDM	3	15:27	Goal 71	5	27	38	67	71	89	2	19	27	29	44	65	5v5
EDM	3	15:10	13	5	13	16	18	38	71	4	14	19	27	29	43	5v5
FLA	3	13:07		10	19	22	24	38	43	4	28	29	43	68	85	5v5
FLA	3	12:27		5	10	27	38	67	71	2	14	19	27	29	44	5v5
EDM	3	10:37	46	5	12	32	38	46	71	4	28	29	43	68	85	5v5
EDM	3	10:17	32	5	12	32	38	46	71	4	27	29	44	68	85	5v5
FLA	3	5:16		10	12	19	24	38	43	4	14	19	27	29	43	5v5
FLA	3	2:04		13	16	18	24	38	43	4	5	9	14	29	67	5v5
FLA	3	1:51		13	16	18	24	38	43	4	5	9	14	29	67	5v5
EDM	4	3:48	44	27	38	44	77	89		2	16	27	29	44		4v4
EDM	4	3:29	27	27	38	44	77	89		2	16	27	29	44		4v4
EDM	4	3:23	27	27	38	44	77	89		2	16	27	29	44		4v4
EDM	4	0:33	16	12	16	38	71	77		2	9	16	24	29		4v4

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	L. SMID	18:55	8	6	0:00	0	0	1:30	0	1
10	S. HORCOFF	16:04	3	7	5:07	2	1	3:12	0	3
12	R. NILSSON	11:02	5	2	4:03	2	1	0:00	0	0
13	A. COGLIANO	11:48	2	4	0:06	0	0	0:00	0	0
16	R. POTULNY	9:57	4	3	3:36	2	1	5:02	0	3
18	E. MOREAU	12:26	2	4	0:04	0	0	4:50	0	3
19	P. O’SULLIVAN	15:06	3	6	3:00	2	1	1:07	0	0
22	J. JACQUES	9:37	1	3	0:00	0	0	0:18	0	0
24	S. STAIOS	15:54	1	8	0:03	0	0	3:34	0	2
27	D. PENNER	14:16	7	7	3:44	2	0	3:27	0	3
32	R. STONE	6:52	2	0	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
38	J. DESLAURIERS	48:33	15	16	7:26	4	1	8:58	0	6
43	J. STRUDWICK	14:48	1	6	0:00	0	0	3:45	0	2
44	S. SOURAY	15:40	3	5	4:05	2	0	4:51	0	4
46	Z. STORTINI	8:18	3	1	0:03	0	0	0:00	0	0
67	G. BRULE	13:19	4	6	1:48	2	0	0:00	0	0
71	L. VISNOVSKY	17:35	11	2	3:51	2	1	0:18	0	0
77	T. GILBERT	14:02	4	5	2:23	2	0	3:58	0	3
89	S. GAGNER	14:24	7	5	3:17	2	0	0:00	0	0

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	5	10	4	7	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0
2	6	7	3	4	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	0
3	4	6	4	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
4	4	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	19	23	15	16	4	1	0	0	0	6	0	0

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Dennis says:

December 7th, 2009 at

Lines and defense pairings:

22-10-19
27-89-67
18-16-13
32-46-12

5-71
44-77
43-24

Forwards: 10 had a PPG and scored the SO goal but it was another game where the timbre of his linemates caught up to him and they were outchanced.

The Oilers got outchanced again tonight and only somewhat bridged that gap with a 4-0 performance during the four-on-four play of OT (which isn’t indicative of normal play) so there’s really not a whole lot more positive things I can say about the forwards. The only other good thing I can manage is only good things seem to happen when our new fourth line is on the ice and that if 12 worked as hard in 67% of games as he did tonight then his contract wouldn’t be a problem.

D: 37 is on the trip with the big club and we know from the aftermath of last year’s incident with the Habs Tomas Plekanec that our young Russian rearguard is a fast healer. This is superlative news because the 43/24 tandem are weapons grade bad when it comes to the scoring chance metric and for those that watch the games I don’t believe they’d consider this to be a coincidence.

The real story from tonight’s game would be the play of Lubomir Vishnovsky. Now never let it be said that I’m one who ignores quality of competition but this guy is absolutely tearing it up and the latest goal and assist offering leaves him with 8-22-28 - that’s my own personal stat line of goals, points and games played. It is also worth nothing that besides marking on the scoresheet he also finished 11/2 in terms of chances for/against.

Tonight also marked the 80th game of his Oilers career and in that time he is 67/46 in terms of real plus minus - that is plus minus that doesn’t include ENGF or ENGA.

I really don’t know who’s running the forwards or defense on this club and the most inventive the man running the forwards appears to be is that he subs in 12 for 22 in the last 10 min of the third period. The Oilers game against the Kings next Monday is the start of a four game homestand and a chance for the club to have last change. The only thing 71 can do at this point is put up these numbers against top quality competition and who’s willing to bet against him at this point.

Will says:

11/2 for 71. That alone is impressive but when compared to 24 & 43’s numbers… wow. I’d normally ask whether he was out against the softer competition, but doesn’t Quinn just roll the D? And I noticed he was bobbling the puck a little even - must’ve been the Florida ice. We need a new ice plant at Rexall just to take advantage of 71’s skating out of the zone if anything else.

The 89/27/67 trio continue to outchance, but have you noticed a fall-off in their play Dennis? By my eye, 27 hasn’t looked nearly as dominant lately, 67 skates hard but is high event, and 89 has been making some poor decisions lately (drop pass to Penner was not good).

Has anyone else noticed the D being activated more in recent games, especially during this win streak? Seems to have been working decently well, but damn, 24 gets caught pinching more than everyone else combined.

Stone: 2/0. Could use some more of his good “low-eventness”. I counted at least 2 times for 89 and one time for 13 where they had the chance to clear the zone but didn’t and led to scoring chances against.

12 looked good again and was even made a really nice backcheck (!) to prevent a SC. This kinda Nilsson I could stand to have on my team, but wonder if he’s going to get the pump & dump. If we go forward with this team, we really need 13/89/12 to develop some consistency to their game.

Hmm, not sure if BTN agrees with Quinn just rolling D. It looked like 37/77 were getting fed the hardest competition (0.016 & 0.067) with some of the poorest linemates (-0.32 & -0.145), so not a wonder they were getting killed earlier. Wonder if that was on purpose or if it just defaulted that way with the injuries to 44, 24, and 71. I’d like to think the bench boss was matching his D (and all his players) to maximize to their strengths, but by the way he rolls out 24/43 with wild abandon at critical times, I’m not so sure…

Will: right now I believe 27 is playing the same kind of game that he did in ‘09 and that was a game I liked but it wasn’t one that was worth his contract and it wasn’t one that made you look forward to his shifts like we were earlier in this season.

The biggest difference to me is he’s no longer lugging the puck through the neutral zone and he’s no longer trying to take guys one-on-one; he tried it in OT but he didn’t try it before. It looks like his conditioning isn’t as impressive as it was earlier in the year so I wonder if he’s nursing an injury or if he’s just having a little lag but no I don’t think he’s the player he was earlier in the season and I’ve been saying it the last few games.

Jay says:

December 8th, 2009 at

Dennis, I thought Visnovsky scored too, but the Oilers website is crediting the goal to Dustin Penner. Either way, 11/2 is pretty impressive.

Will, I also noticed that the Oilers have really activated the d too. They have been caught pinching quite often–especially 24, but also Souray.

I think Penner looking less dominant probably has something to do with who’s on his line–to my eye, they don’t seem to spend much time in the offensive zone with the puck.

How would Crosby or Malkin do against tough comp if they were saddled with Brule/Gagner?

That aside, he’s also missing chances that he seemed to finish earlier. Overall, I don’t think that he’s handling the puck well or carrying it through the neutral zone as Dennis observed. He doesn’t seem as quick either.

This metric liked him just as much last year as it does this year so I don’t think 27’s playing poorly but his play has dropped off, IMO.

Lately I dare say it’s because we’ve seen a few road games in a row and because Quinn and/or Co. doesn’t appear interested in trying to disrupt the other coaches plan then we’ve seen them able to hard match 89’s line.

I’m looking forward to seeing what the match plan is come Tues night when the Oilers have the last change but the last home game the plan was for the 22-10-19 line to take on the toughs and let the 89 line tiptoe through the tulips. If that remains the approach in a week’s time then you’ll probably see his numbers soar again.

Bruce says:

It’s not impossible that Penner is missing Hemsky more than a little bit. The team OTOH seems to be doing alright without him … by my math the EV scoring chances are 105-87 Oil in the 5 games since Ales went down. Which is almost as impressive as it is surprising.

David Staples says:

December 10th, 2009 at

Hemksy is missed,but of course he’s just one player. If other guys have picked it up, such as the Cogs line, and the Wam Bam Thank You Mam Line, or whatever it’s called, they team will have a better scoring chances +/-, right?

Penner has missed Hemsky, no doubt about it. They were working well together.