mc79hockey.com - bullshit concepts that dont elucidate or create an “ALL SEEING EYE” like baseball BULLSHIT in the chaos of hockey » Scoring Chances: G25 Kings at Oilers, Nov 25th

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Scoring Chances: G25 Kings at Oilers, Nov 25th

By Dennis

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20350

Team	Period	Time	Note	EDM						Opponent
LAK	1	14:51		5	19	38	46	71	85	3	12	17	26	32	63	5v5
EDM	1	12:40	27	27	38	43	44	83	89	3	11	12	14	32	54	5v5
LAK	1	12:21		10	27	38	43	44	83	2	11	14	32	44	54	5v5
LAK	1	12:20		10	27	38	43	44	83	2	11	14	32	44	54	5v5
LAK	1	11:51		10	27	38	43	44	83	2	11	14	32	44	54	5v5
EDM	1	11:21	89	5	27	38	71	83	89	3	12	23	24	32	48	5v5
LAK	1	10:55		13	16	18	38	43	77	6	8	17	26	32	63	5v5
LAK	1	9:50		19	24	38	44	46	85	2	15	32	41	44	49	5v5
LAK	1	8:29	PP	19	24	38	77	85		3	8	11	14	23	32	4v5
LAK	1	8:13	PP	19	24	38	77	85		3	8	11	14	23	32	4v5
EDM	1	6:47	18	10	13	18	24	38	77	2	15	17	32	44	63	5v5
LAK	1	3:31		19	38	43	46	77	85	2	6	15	32	41	49	5v5
EDM	1	2:32	18	13	16	18	38	44	71	3	6	23	24	32	48	5v5
EDM	1	2:23	Goal 16	13	16	18	24	38	44	3	12	17	26	32	63	5v5
LAK	1	1:07		5	10	22	38	67	71	2	11	14	32	44	54	5v5
EDM	2	17:33	13	13	16	18	24	38	44	2	17	26	32	44	63	5v5
LAK	2	13:22	Goal	13	16	18	24	38	44	2	12	17	26	32	63	5v5
LAK	2	9:20		10	19	24	27	38	77	3	11	12	23	32	49	5v5
LAK	2	8:50		5	13	16	18	38	71	3	12	23	24	32	48	5v5
EDM	2	8:03	67	10	22	24	38	44	67	3	12	17	26	32	63	5v5
EDM	2	7:42	22	10	22	38	44	67	77	3	12	17	26	32	63	5v5
EDM	2	7:41	10	10	22	38	44	67	77	3	12	17	26	32	63	5v5
LAK	2	4:50		13	24	27	38	44	89	2	11	14	24	32	44	5v5
LAK	2	4:32		10	22	38	43	67	77	6	8	23	24	32	48	5v5
EDM	2	1:11	SH 10	10	24	27	38	44		3	12	24	26	32	54	4v5
LAK	2	0:40	PP	5	16	18	38	43		8	11	12	14	23	32	4v5
EDM	3	19:31	27 PP	24	27	38	67	71	89	2	6	11	23	32		5v4
EDM	3	16:09	27	5	19	27	38	71	89	3	11	12	14	32	54	5v5
LAK	3	13:39		5	16	38	46	71	85	3	12	23	24	32	48	5v5
EDM	3	13:26	89 post	5	19	27	38	71	89	3	12	23	24	32	48	5v5
LAK	3	6:34		10	19	24	27	38	77	3	12	15	17	26	32	5v5
EDM	3	5:10	10	10	22	24	38	44	67	8	11	14	32	44	54	5v5
LAK	3	4:28	Goal	5	19	27	38	71	89	2	6	17	26	32	63	5v5
LAK	3	3:31		10	22	38	67	71	77	3	12	15	23	24	32	5v5
EDM	3	3:08	77	19	27	38	71	77	89	3	12	15	23	24	32	5v5
EDM	3	3:05	89	19	27	38	71	77	89	3	12	15	23	24	32	5v5
LAK	3	1:34		10	13	18	38	71	77	3	12	17	26	32	63	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	L. SMID	16:24	3	5	0:16	0	0	1:53	0	1
10	S. HORCOFF	18:38	5	9	2:15	0	0	1:33	1	0
13	A. COGLIANO	13:41	4	5	1:40	0	0	0:00	0	0
16	R. POTULNY	12:00	3	4	1:54	0	0	1:36	0	1
18	E. MOREAU	13:02	4	4	1:20	0	0	1:36	0	1
19	P. O’SULLIVAN	13:30	4	6	1:12	0	0	1:02	0	2
22	J. JACQUES	12:16	4	3	0:00	0	0	0:20	0	0
24	S. STAIOS	18:11	5	5	2:44	1	0	2:18	1	2
27	D. PENNER	14:59	6	7	4:26	1	0	1:13	1	0
38	J. DESLAURIERS	49:01	14	18	6:11	1	0	4:11	1	3
43	J. STRUDWICK	13:18	1	6	0:00	0	0	1:53	0	1
44	S. SOURAY	20:27	8	6	3:04	0	0	1:16	1	0
46	Z. STORTINI	6:37	0	4	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
67	G. BRULE	13:35	4	3	1:51	1	0	0:00	0	0
71	L. VISNOVSKY	16:53	6	7	4:15	1	0	0:00	0	0
77	T. GILBERT	14:29	5	7	2:03	0	0	1:02	0	2
83	A. HEMSKY	7:28	2	3	0:24	0	0	0:00	0	0
85	L. REDDOX	7:18	0	4	0:00	0	0	1:02	0	2
89	S. GAGNER	12:12	6	2	3:31	1	0	0:00	0	0

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	5	10	5	8	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
2	5	6	4	5	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0
3	6	5	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	16	21	14	18	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0

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Dennis says:

November 26th, 2009 at

The lines - at least until 83 got hurt - were the same as last game:

22-67-10
27-89-83
18-16-13
85-19-46

Matt says:

So is this one of those “Always darkest before the dawn” things? Seems pretty dark.

Vic Ferrari says:

Looked like there was some matching of the forwards at least. Though Jacques-Brule-Horcoff were never a good bet to outplay the Kopitar line, even if 10 was healthy and playing centre that would be a doomed experiment. Then again, looking down the roster … I suppose it was the lesser of the evils.

http://timeonice.com/H2H0910.html?GameNumber=20350&submit=Go

Though the D matchups ended up completely random, according to the head to head ice times
at least. I didn’t notice during the game.

And at EV, Visnovsky on the ice for 10 D zone draws and zero offensive zone draws. Damn, that’s a strange use of an elite offensive defender.

At this point I think we’ve all embraced the fact that the Oilers aren’t going to go on one of those tears where they outchance the bad guys in 8 of 10 games, like they did in a few times in 03/04 and 05/06. They aren’t going to suddenly start outplaying teams on a regular basis.

They need a very lucky streak to get back into playoff position, and continued luck to make the playoffs. You agree, Dennis?

And if they do go on a COL style tear, I have a sinking feeling that Tambellini will make his future decisions based on who was hot during that streak. So I’m at the point where I hope they get the results that they deserve. Hell, maybe even worse, at least there’s a high draft pick in that scenario.

Dennis, do you still have the game recorded? If so, can you se who was stanfing behind the forwards and who was standing behind the D in this one? I think I saw Fleming behind the forwards when they panned the bench. That was just after the Hemsky injury though iirc, so it might have just been for the PP.

Bruce says:

Strange indeed, Vic, to the point that I looked it up. There were just 16 faceoffs in LA’s end the whole game (26 in Oilers’ end), with 4 of the 16 following LA penalties and 4 more during said penalties, meaning the Oil forced all of 8 O-Zone draws at EV the entire game. The play-by-play shows at least 4 of those were forced by Visnovsky’s unit which then went off on a change. Of the others, 2 occurred relatively early in somebody else’s shift so they stayed out, and 2 were situations where Vis could have come out but didn’t. ) One was early in the first (1:52), when for some reason Oilers sent out 24-44 for their second shift before 5-71 even had one. The other was after a TV timeout deep into the third (14:26). LA sent out Kopitar and Quinn responded with Staios and Souray who weren’t exactly hard-matched but were the pairing of choice against the Kopitar unit, as your linked stats indicate.

So there wasn’t much chance to use Visnovsky in offensive situations cuz there weren’t many offensive situations. Typically he started his shifts with the Oilers back on their heels, which isn’t that much of a surprise all things considered.

Speaking of Vic’s stats, the shots data for the last 3 games show that Liam Reddox has been on the ice for 7 attempted shots by the Oilers and 46 by the bad guys. All that in a shade over 31 minutes, for a Corsi/60 of -75.1. Small sample size I know, but that is beyond terrible.

Vic: No, that game is gone, thankfully:)

And, yes, I agree with you that the season is over for all intensive purposes. I started this exercise just to see how much of a factor luck plays and who’s under and overrated and once you go game after game where a team gets outchanced, then reality kicks in.

Fuck, Quinn basically admitted as much in last night’s presser.

Anyway, even if we had our best players available, I’m not sure we could make the playoffs but now with 83 perhaps being out for a long haul and with 10 playing so banged up that he can’t even take a draw, well, we’ll knackered

One was early in the first (1:52), when for some reason Oilers sent out 24-44 for their second shift before 5-71 even had one.

My mistake, I was going off the play-by-play which of course is event-based. Looked up TOI and confirmed that 5-71 had an event-free shift (on and off on the fly with nothing of consequence in between times) and that 24-44 were simply starting the second rotation in normal sequence on that occasion.

Reddox sent down, O’Marra and MacDonald up. I guess they saw what I saw. Lots of things to like about Reddox, unfortunately “results” aren’t among them.

Yeah, Dennis. It’s a good thing that there is a huge slice of luck in the outcome of any game, otherwise the Oilers would be in much deeper trouble.

Surprising to me how scoring chances track along with territorial advantage a lot better at the player level than at the team level. Both this yearand last. A correlation of corsi% to SC% of about r=.9 for the Oilers so far, drawing the line at the 15 skaters with the most ice time. That’s a bit higher than last year at this point, probably coincidence.

MTL and COL at about r=.8 last I checked.

I think a lot of the reason that scoring chances don’t track along with corsi at the team level is playing-to-the-score effects. Also the tempo of the game. It effects all skaters about the same, so it washes out at that level.

And at the player level they really are the harbinger of things to come (with common sense factored in, of course … injury and linemates especially, faceoff zones and qualcomp too). There’s just no getting away from. Folks can build a case for a guy like Brule, and if they’re clever they can probably construct an intuitively convincing argument. But the scoring chance arrow is big, and it’s pointed the wrong way. And really, that’s all a guy needs to know. Same goes for O’Sullivan (and I like him), Cogliano, Reddox, Jacques, Nilsson, etc.

Last year Schremp put up good counting numbers in his brief stint, but his scoring chance +/- was MacIntyrish. The writing was on the wall.

mc79hockey says:

Though Jacques-Brule-Horcoff were never a good bet to outplay the Kopitar line, even if 10 was healthy and playing centre that would be a doomed experiment. Then again, looking down the roster … I suppose it was the lesser of the evils.

I’ve got a post cooking that deals with this. The Oilers look to have about four guys right now who can play up front - Hemsky, Horcoff, Penner and Gagner. After that it’s just a complete fiasco. The 83/10/22 combo was 19/29 in chances earlier this year; 83/10/27 is 42/29.

There is simply not enough talent here. Quinn has been saying as much - oddly, I can’t get his postgame comments from last night to work.

The worst part is, we’ve gone through this for four years now and they’re really no further ahead. The net from the Pronger trade at the moment is what, a 2nd/3rd pairing D with no offensive game and Patrick O’Sullivan? Smyth brought back Alex Plante in terms of guys who might have some value. Penner helped the Oilers avoid getting some higher picks the last few years. Souray too. It’s an organization that has just spun its wheels, with no reason to believe it will go anywhere else.

It’s one thing to suck. It’s another thing to suck in circumstances in which no reasonable person would have hope.

Folks can build a case for a guy like Brule, and if they’re clever they can probably construct an intuitively convincing argument. But the scoring chance arrow is big, and it’s pointed the wrong way. And really, that’s all a guy needs to know. Same goes for O’Sullivan (and I like him), Cogliano, Reddox, Jacques, Nilsson, etc.

It’s funny though, it shows up in other stuff. Brule has a gaudy EVP/60 number at the moment, but he’s had points on 94% of the goals he’s been on the ice for (norm for forwards is ~70%) and the on-ice shooting percentage is huge. We know it’s going to come down. Horcoff and Gagner have been getting hammered to a certain extent, with points on around 55% of goals, although the shooting percentage is there.

Basically, everyone below 83/10/27/89 should be moved down the batting order. I don’t know how you can do that.

Tyler:

I was just about to ask Dennis to give us the goods on Quinn’s post game presser. I can’t get the podcast to play either.

And obviously I’m feeling the same frustration with Oiler management.

For fuck sakes, Katz could have canned management, then hired some random foreigner who had never seen a hockey game, but had experience in negotiating and had tested well on a critical thinking test. If Katz had instructed this guy/girl to not watch any games, and base all decisions on Dennis’ scoring chance numbers from last year …
we’d probably be looking at a playoff team this year. And we’d have some reasons to believe in the future. Seriously.

For Christmas sakes, the Scoring Chance % correlation from last season to this is already r=.84, (for all players who’ve been on the ice for a total of 100 chances in both seasons) and that’s before a number of common sense corrections for context and injury. If we lupulsmid through the linemates alone it’s going to be well north of r=.9. The odds of that happening by coincidence alone are staggering.

This isn’t rocket science. Regardless of recent counting numbers … the good players are still good and the bad players are still bad. And there are too many of the latter.

Bruce:

Thanks for the info on Visnovsky. When there are that few offensive draws, and you’ve been the guy who was on the ice when half of thm were created … stands to reason that you will be starting in your own end of the rink pretty much all of the time.

Do you have the game recorded, Bruce?

Dennis:

More fun with numbers. If we weed out Nilsson and Cogliano (who we know MacTavish was sheltering last year) and Smid and Grebs (Vis-bump effect in huge play there) … the correlation from last year to this (not including last night) is already r=.957

Plot that out and it’s just like a bunch of ants marching from the bottom left corner of the page to the top right. And we haven’t even started to make systematic corrections to the data.

The chances of a positive correlation happening like that by coincidence alone is about 6.7 million to one. Oiler fans that ignore scoring chance +/- do so at their own peril. I’m always surprised to read Lowetide and see EV/60 quoted after 15 games (which is mostly luck at that point) and SC+/- ignored.

The much bigger crime is the obliviousness of Tambellini and his cohorts. They might get lucky with a deal here and there (Lowe told Tencer that Vis was a powerplay specialist when he acquired him, yeesh). But they probably won’t get any smarter.

Buckle up, Dennis. Rock bottom is a ways away yet, but we’re dropping fast.

Vic: Didn’t record the game; watched it live on RSW and reviewed some of the “game in an hour” replay while writing a post-game review, but that was enough for me w.r.t. this stinker. I do, however, have access to it on-line through the archives of hockeystreams.com, which is my way of accessing PPV on the cheap but has lots of additional stuff. Are you just trying to get a sense of where the coaches were?

I’m always surprised to read Lowetide and see EV/60 quoted after 15 games (which is mostly luck at that point) and SC+/- ignored.

That was me who posted the top 3 in EV/60 the other day, in direct response to a comment about “where is our third scorer going to come from”. I was in a rush so just threw up the present top 3 (Brule, Penner, Hemsky) without comment, on the pretext that just maybe that third scorer is under our noses.

I returned to the thread after it was played out and read your reply about EV scoring after a quarter of the season being 75% luck. Not sure I agree with the number but certainly agree with your larger point. If I had commented at the time (I was really in a hurry) I would have said I think Brule’s early production is a bit of a mirage, as indeed Tyler’s 94% P/G and Dennis’s scoring chances both attest. But for now at least he’s put some actual numbers on the board, which at least superficially puts him ahead of a lot of guys who are firing blanks. He’s got issues but is not without promise.

You can put me in the camp of people who highly value Dennis’s SC stuff. I comment on them frequently here and often cite them elsewhere.

Yeah, Bruce. Just curious if Quinn was running the forwards. I’m not sure who else was back there, but either Fleming or Buchy has aged terribly.

Speaking of scoring chances, Dennis has Reddox at +1/-17 at EV the past 3 games, which pretty much backs up the Corsi data, doesn’t it?

Vic: Quinn’s presser was very short and man oh man did it ever take a long time for him to get to the podium; I don’t know if it was because they were all fretting over 83’s injury or they were all rotted once again over the result.

Anyway, the three noteworthy things he said, at least to my ear, were as follows:

- he said the team was dry offensively and outside of 10-27, no one was getting things done on a consistent basis. I thought that was a slap to 10 who’d been getting it done lately and who’s not playing with guys who Christ himself couldn’t make “go.”

- when someone asked him if the team was in a funk, Quinn sniffed and basically said, “maybe we are what we are.” I thought that was all at once conceding defeat while dancing adroitly with reality.

- at the end he said, “hemsky sure went and got himself hurt this time” which I’m sure didn’t mean it was 83’s fault but probably meant this was going to be a long haul on the OR as opposed to the other thing’s he’s been able to play through.

Regarding why my SC metric hasn’t gotten a bigger foothold, I’m sorta surprised but then again some people really don’t want to consider that there are different ways to look at things. There’s also the other thing where I’ve never really explained my MO in counting the stats but everytime I think of doing that, I think one of the old Justice Potter Stewart quote about pornography

Anyway, I think my instincts are true and I think the numbers check out; and when you put them alongside QualComp, I think we pretty much have the picture.