mc79hockey.com - bullshit concepts that dont elucidate or create an “ALL SEEING EYE” like baseball BULLSHIT in the chaos of hockey » Scoring chances G19: Oilers at Sabres, Nov 11th

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Scoring chances G19: Oilers at Sabres, Nov 11th

By Dennis

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20247

Team	Period	Time	Note	EDM						Opponent
BUF	1	17:51		13	18	24	35	37	46	4	9	29	30	41	44	5v5
EDM	1	14:59	PP 19	19	27	35	71	83	91	19	28	30	34	52		5v4
BUF	1	13:40		27	35	43	67	77	83	4	19	26	30	41	44	5v5
BUF	1	13:39		27	35	43	67	77	83	4	19	26	30	41	44	5v5
EDM	1	10:49	67	5	35	67	71	83	91	10	19	21	26	30	57	5v5
EDM	1	8:47	67	24	35	37	67	83	91	4	19	21	30	44	55	5v5
BUF	1	8:26		24	35	37	67	83	91	10	19	21	26	30	57	5v5
BUF	1	7:18		16	34	35	43	77	85	9	29	30	34	41	52	5v5
BUF	1	6:29		19	24	27	35	37	89	4	9	28	30	37	44	5v5
BUF	1	5:58		5	19	27	35	71	89	4	28	30	36	44	55	5v5
EDM	1	5:27	18	5	13	18	35	46	71	10	13	25	30	55	57	5v5
BUF	1	4:29	Goal	16	34	35	43	77	85	19	21	26	30	34	52	5v5
BUF	1	0:05		5	18	24	27	35	89	4	13	25	30	44	55	5v5
BUF	2	17:02		35	43	67	77	83	91	4	13	30	36	44	55	5v5
EDM	2	14:10	46	13	18	24	35	37	46	10	13	25	30	55	57	5v5
EDM	2	13:20	27	5	19	24	27	35	89	10	28	30	36	37	57	5v5
BUF	2	12:26	Goal	5	16	24	34	35	85	4	19	21	26	30	44	5v5
EDM	2	11:00	PP 16	13	16	35	37	77	89	25	28	30	34	52		5v4
EDM	2	10:41	PP 89	13	16	35	37	77	89	25	28	30	34	52		5v4
EDM	2	7:59	19 post	5	19	35	71	83		19	21	30	34	52		4v4
EDM	2	6:13	PP 19	19	27	35	71	89	91	25	30	34	52	55		5v4
EDM	2	6:11	PP 89	19	27	35	71	89	91	25	30	34	52	55		5v4
EDM	2	2:21	PP 71	19	27	35	71	83	91	10	19	30	57			5v3
EDM	2	2:11	Goal PP 19	19	27	35	71	83	91	10	19	30	57			5v3
BUF	3	19:43		19	24	27	35	37	89	9	10	29	30	41	57	5v5
EDM	3	17:41	83	24	35	37	67	83	91	4	13	30	36	44	55	5v5
BUF	3	16:20		19	24	27	35	37	89	9	29	30	34	41	52	5v5
BUF	3	14:25	PP	19	27	35	43	77		9	26	30	41	52	57	4v5
EDM	3	13:11	PP 27	19	27	35	71	83	91	29	30	34	52	55		5v4
EDM	3	12:14	27	13	27	35	37	77	89	19	28	30	34	52		5v4
EDM	3	12:07	27	13	27	35	37	77	89	19	26	28	30	34	52	5v5
BUF	3	10:13	PP	19	27	35	43	77		19	21	28	29	30	34	4v5
BUF	3	7:01	PP	5	19	24	27	35		19	21	28	29	30	34	4v5
BUF	3	6:47	PP	34	35	37	43	85		9	21	28	29	30	34	4v5
EDM	3	3:58	PP 77	16	35	37	77	83	91	9	29	30	34	52		5v4
EDM	3	2:46	PP 89	13	19	27	35	71	89	19	30	34	52	55		5v4
EDM	3	1:57	PP 19 post	19	35	67	71	83	91	9	10	29	30	57		5v4

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	L. SMID	11:29	4	3	0:04	0	0	2:38	0	1
13	A. COGLIANO	7:01	3	1	6:38	4	0	0:00	0	0
16	R. POTULNY	7:44	0	3	4:01	3	0	1:28	0	0
18	E. MOREAU	7:43	2	2	0:00	0	0	1:29	0	0
19	P. O’SULLIVAN	11:32	2	4	7:51	6	0	3:22	0	3
24	S. STAIOS	14:55	4	7	0:17	0	0	2:35	0	1
27	D. PENNER	13:36	2	7	6:55	6	0	2:41	0	3
34	F. PISANI	8:15	0	3	0:20	0	0	3:00	0	1
35	N. KHABIBULIN	36:51	8	13	13:37	10	0	7:23	0	4
37	D. GREBESHKOV	14:12	4	5	5:35	4	0	2:20	0	1
43	J. STRUDWICK	11:27	0	5	0:07	0	0	3:43	0	3
46	Z. STORTINI	6:28	2	1	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
67	G. BRULE	9:52	3	4	1:51	1	0	0:07	0	0
71	L. VISNOVSKY	12:24	3	1	7:41	6	0	0:00	0	0
77	T. GILBERT	10:37	1	5	6:12	4	0	3:36	0	2
83	A. HEMSKY	10:57	4	4	5:33	4	0	0:22	0	0
85	L. REDDOX	7:42	0	3	0:20	0	0	2:26	0	1
89	S. GAGNER	12:29	2	5	8:33	6	0	0:00	0	0
91	M. COMRIE	8:54	3	2	7:01	6	0	0:00	0	0

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	4	9	3	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	9	2	3	2	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
3	7	6	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	4	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	20	17	8	13	10	0	2	0	0	4	0	0

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Vic Ferrari says:

November 14th, 2009 at

Just have to give props, Dennis. Terrific stuff as always.

I have gotten lazy in tracking chances, knowing that you were doing this well. I counted them for the Habs game early in the year though, you and me and Olivier were a mile apart over the first bit of the game … and nearly spot on afterwards.

Goes to show, you walk away and you lose your form. I had so many chances counted in the first few minutes that there would have been a hundred on the night. Remembering that Neilson thought there should be around 35 on average, I started marking harder to compensate. Tthis before I realized it was just the way shit went in this game early. By then it’s half way through the first period. There you go.

If you look at a big enough chunk of games, or at the players themselves … corsi% tracks spot on with scoring chance%.

Get closer to the trees, though, look at a game by game basis … corsi (or any of the shots metrics) has bugger all to do with scoring chances as you recorded them. Fascinating stuff.

So far this year: Corsi% to scoring chance%, by Oiler player (cutoff of Staios by icetime) = .93. Bonkers.

On a game by game basis you’d expect the team corsi% and team scoring chance% to mesh exactly, way above .93, near 1.0 … but they don’t. r=0.58. Even worse last year (granted a sharper bench coach last season) And it won’t get much better with time, in fact if Quinn has a heart attack and Renney takes over the bench … all the smart money will say that it drops a whack. That big picture player corsi/scoring-chance realtionship will stay the same though.

We’re figuring this shit out, Dennis.