mc79hockey.com - bullshit concepts that dont elucidate or create an “ALL SEEING EYE” like baseball BULLSHIT in the chaos of hockey » Scoring Chances: G14 Oilers at Bruins, Oct 31st

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Scoring Chances: G14 Oilers at Bruins, Oct 31st

By Dennis

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20180

Team	Period	Time	Note	EDM						Opponent
EDM	1	14:51	89	5	12	13	35	37	89	21	22	27	40	48	61	5v5
BOS	1	10:42		18	34	35	43	46	49	6	20	26	40	48	60	5v5
EDM	1	8:41	49	19	22	35	43	49	67	16	21	28	40	45	46	5v5
BOS	1	8:06		12	13	35	43	49	67	6	22	27	28	40	48	5v5
BOS	1	2:46		10	27	35	41	77	83	33	37	40	53	63	73	5v5
BOS	1	1:22		19	22	35	43	49	67	16	21	28	40	46	48	5v5
EDM	2	18:02	12	12	13	35	43	49	89	6	16	28	40	46	48	5v5
BOS	2	16:29	PP	19	22	35	41	77		16	33	37	40	53	73	4v5
BOS	2	15:36	PP	5	13	18	35	37		6	21	26	28	40	46	4v5
BOS	2	14:58		5	13	18	35	37	49	22	27	33	40	53	61	5v5
BOS	2	12:53		5	12	13	35	37	89	21	37	40	48	63	73	5v5
BOS	2	12:02		18	34	35	41	46	77	16	21	28	40	45	46	5v5
BOS	2	10:53		10	27	35	43	49	83	22	27	33	40	53	61	5v5
BOS	2	10:40		10	27	35	43	49	83	22	27	33	40	53	61	5v5
BOS	2	7:14		10	27	35	43	49	83	20	21	26	33	40	60	5v5
BOS	2	6:30		5	10	27	35	37	83	33	37	40	53	63	73	5v5
BOS	2	5:56		5	10	27	35	37	83	33	37	40	53	63	73	5v5
BOS	2	5:09		19	22	35	41	67	77	6	16	28	40	46	48	5v5
EDM	2	5:00	19	19	22	35	41	67	77	6	16	28	40	46	48	5v5
EDM	2	4:32	89	12	13	35	43	49	89	16	21	27	28	40	45	5v5
EDM	2	2:01	77	13	19	35	41	67	77	21	37	40	48	63	73	5v5
EDM	2	1:08	83 post	5	10	27	35	37	83	27	33	37	40	53	61	5v5
BOS	2	0:08		5	19	27	35	37	67	6	20	21	26	40	60	5v5
BOS	2	0:02		5	19	27	35	37	67	6	20	21	26	40	60	5v5
BOS	3	18:24		19	22	35	41	67	77	6	16	28	40	46	48	5v5
BOS	3	17:13	Goal	18	34	35	43	46	49	20	21	26	40	45	60	5v5
EDM	3	16:20	10	10	22	35	41	77	83	6	22	27	40	48	61	5v5
EDM	3	15:51	22	10	22	35	41	77	83	21	37	40	45	63	73	5v5
BOS	3	14:00		12	13	35	41	77	89	6	22	26	27	40	48	5v5
BOS	3	12:58	Goal	5	10	22	35	37	83	20	21	26	40	45	60	5v5
BOS	3	11:54		5	12	13	35	37	89	6	28	37	40	48	63	5v5
BOS	3	10:44		5	18	34	35	37	46	21	22	27	40	48	61	5v5
BOS	3	1:53		5	19	35	43	89		16	33	37	40	53	73	4v5
EDM	3	1:32	27	10	12	27	35	37	77	16	21	33	37	40	73	5v5
EDM	3	0:49	67	10	27	37	67	77	83	27	33	37	40	46	53	5v5

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	L. SMID	19:41	2	9	0:00	0	0	2:29	0	2
10	S. HORCOFF	16:11	5	7	2:22	0	0	0:25	0	0
12	R. NILSSON	13:23	4	4	0:39	0	0	0:00	0	0
13	A. COGLIANO	14:52	4	5	0:00	0	0	0:50	0	1
18	E. MOREAU	9:19	0	5	0:00	0	0	0:50	0	1
19	P. O’SULLIVAN	15:14	3	5	2:39	0	0	1:54	0	2
22	J. JACQUES	12:51	4	4	0:00	0	0	0:45	0	1
27	D. PENNER	16:42	3	8	2:30	0	0	0:25	0	0
34	F. PISANI	8:08	0	4	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
35	N. KHABIBULIN	52:44	10	21	3:09	0	0	3:09	0	3
37	D. GREBESHKOV	20:34	4	9	2:39	0	0	1:26	0	1
41	T. CHORNEY	18:15	4	5	0:30	0	0	0:45	0	1
43	J. STRUDWICK	14:11	3	7	0:00	0	0	0:58	0	1
46	Z. STORTINI	7:57	0	4	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
49	T. PECKHAM	15:02	3	8	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
67	G. BRULE	18:14	4	6	0:30	0	0	0:00	0	0
77	T. GILBERT	20:04	6	5	0:30	0	0	0:40	0	1
83	A. HEMSKY	15:48	4	7	2:39	0	0	0:00	0	0
89	S. GAGNER	12:11	3	3	0:47	0	0	1:09	0	1

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	2	4	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	5	13	5	11	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
3	4	7	4	6	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	11	24	11	21	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0

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Dennis says:

October 31st, 2009 at

The 18-46 combo are absolute death and one of the reasons I decided to try this exercise was to sniff out the guys who were getting lucky.

Ethan Moreau was one of those guys last year.

Bruce says:

November 1st, 2009 at

Dennis: I’ve been noticing the same thing. I’d bet anything Zorg is one of those under the flu — he stopped hitting about a week ago, for basically the first time in his career — and Moreau has flu in his household. The two have mostly played together, and the results have not been pretty. Who’s been driving those results? You decide.

Corsi vs. DET

Stortini +3/-13 = -10
Moreau +1/-16 = -15

Corsi vs. BOS

Stortini +2/-6 = -4
Moreau +1/-10 = -9

Two-game total

Stortini +5/-19 = -14
Moreau +2/-26 = -24

By those numbers Stortini is still a fourth liner, but Moreau is the Worst player in the league. No offence, no defence.

I’m prepared to let the flu bug run its course before burying any of these guys — possibly literally, who knows with this fucking thing — but my eye and brain tells me thecaptain is pretty much done.

Vic Ferrari says:

November 2nd, 2009 at

Yeah, it’s been fairly ugly so far. If not for the grace of the hockey gods the Oilers would be down near Minnesota in the standings, methinks.

They just aren’t winning enough puck battles. Having a few guys over this early stretch burying their chances like a young Mario, that’s put a pretty mask on an ugly face. Right now it’s rare for the Oilers to have a shift where they sustain any pressure at all in the offensive end of the ice. I think that exaggerates the sense that the Oilers are having trouble breaking the puck out of their own end. It SHOULD be that hard to get the puck out of your own end against good NHL players.

In fairness, they have some important players injured. And as Bruce says, you have to give some leeway for health. When a team has a lot of guys battling the flu the ability to win puck battles takes a kicking (remember the ANA series in ‘06?).

Horcoff is a guy they need to turn his game around. The last time he was this off was probably November of ‘03, and he really turned it around that year. After the fact the Oilers said he’d been playing with a severe hip pointer iirc. So I’m sure he’ll be his old self in time. Can’t come soon enough.

That line did manage to have some good shifts with time in the B’s end in the first half of the game. No small feat against the Bergeron line and Chara D pairing. Especially considering that they started most of their shifts with the Bruins with strong possession. Following the Moreau line was a tough task in this one, and they seemed to have that gig right through the front end of this game. Jesus, every shift ended badly for 18/34/46. Disaster.

On the positive, I thought the kid line played well, especially Gagner. He’s at the point now where he’s figuring out how to win loose pucks (get there first, then be slippery) which is easier said than done. They got the puck into the low slot quite a bit, and if the bounces had been kinder they could have had a couple or a few more scoring chances. There is hope for Nilsson as well, imo. He’s still trying to pass when the shot is there, and nobody is worse at dumping the puck in to a place that the Oilers have a good chance to get it back. But his shifts are ending better, blue line turnovers aren’t the hallmark of his game any more, and he’s battling. Good things will come eventually for him, methinks.

Have you heard Quinn make any comments on scoring chances, Dennis? I’ve been swamped lately, so I haven’t caught much of his banter.

I did hear a play by play guy comment something along the lines of “Quinn says the Oilers need to score on one of every four scoring chances”. During the DET game I think. So either Pat stood up too quickly and thought he was in 1984, or he’s become a much harder marker for scoring chances since his TOR days.

I remember during a TSN game last year (Habs in DET, Pierre McGuire sitting in that little space between the benches, that’s a madass idea btw) Pierre quoted Carbonneau
as saying that the reason they were struggling at the time was because they were only scoring on one in ten scoring chances. Apparently when they were kicking ass earlier they were scoring on one in four. So Carbonneau would be in line with Hitchcock and Neilson in terms of how tough he marks a scoring chance.

Quinn, if I heard it right, and if the announcer got the quote right, is an even harder marker than Vigneault. Not that it matters in the long run, so long as a guy is consistent. And a coach can only screw up so badly if his focus is on scoring chances. Still, it would be nice to get a sense of how hard he marks.

re: “the health thing”, it’s apparent by eye and by scoreboard that these guys don’t have much left for the second half of the game. The cumulative score of the last 5 third periods has been Oilers 0, Bad Guys 8. The Oil have trailed in four of those games and have mounted not much in the way of a rally, whereas the one game they were ahead against DET it was an absolute blitzkrieg in the final 20. Part of that is talent level obviously, but the health thing runs pretty deep right now too.

Vic: Horcoff is struggling for sure, but the dice haven’t been his friend either. Check out PDO #’s for Oiler forwards with 10+ GP:

1.117 Penner
1.066 Brule
1.057 Cogliano
1.057 Hemsky
1.054 Moreau
1.049 Stortini
1.029 Gagner
1.026 O’Sullivan
1.025 Jacques
1.013 Comrie
0.979 Horcoff

Coach PB says:

Vic:

Quinn talks at length about chances. Scott and I talked about it - his parameters for a scoring chance are much more stringent than what Dennis and Scott are using. I think they are seeing 1 in 8 chances buried or something similar. Quinn has mentioned “a couple” of chances for a line or a player on a night when Dennis has them at 5 CF.

Thanks Bruce. A lot of those guys should expect to end the year above 1.0 if they get average EV goaltending behind them, They have shown a historical ability to finish. But not by that much.

I see Dennis noted the Brule and Penner chances near the end of the game. Those were good chances, time to shoot and they could see net … the perfect shot is a goal in both cases, no matter what Rask does (short of guessing).

Earlier in the year those were crossing the goal line. The team, and those two especially, they were burying their chances at a terrific rate.

Vic: Yes, I heard that Quinn line about “one in every four” chances and I shook my head a little as well. I make no bones that my method lends a lot to Corsi as well and I sometimes wonder if NHL guys are only recording chances for SOG.

My idea is guys getting in the right areas or shooting from the right areas.