Irrational Exuberance
by Tyler Dellow • October 24, 2009 • Uncategorized • 9 Comments
From Lowetide’s HFesque 6-2-1 revelry thread:
The team must have a great locker-room right now given a) the wins and b) how well they’re compensating for each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Some stats might be unsustainable, but honestly, those can be compensated for as well.
Me? I look at the last 9 games and rather than seeing unsustainable numbers or a weak schedule I see proof that it’s at least possible for the team to play and/or win at this level. They might fail miserably, or they might take the div/cup, but at this point they’ve at least shown that they *can* hit that top end, and frankly, that’s all I care about.
The Oilers have been outshot 300-226 to date. I’ve had my head buried in other matters, but about all you can take from the results to date is that any team can get results in a short period. You can get a quick and dirty feel for this by just adding up a team’s save percentage and shooting percentage for a given span of games. The Bruins led the league in shooting percentage and save percentage last year; they added up to 103.4%. The Oilers are currently at 107.3%. I haven’t seen enough games to really have any opinions about what’s going on but you don’t make the playoffs like this. The shooting rates will presumably get closer over time; 300-226 is horrific, but it’ll take a lot to make up for the percentages falling back to earth. Gabe Desjardins has a fine post along the same lines here.
The record’s all fine and well and the Oilers are close enough that the bounces are probably going to be the difference between making and missing the playoffs, so this may well prove to be an important stretch, but anyone advancing an argument that this has anything to do with the coaching change is effectively arguing that the coaching change is driving the shooting percentage to a ridiculous level. It just does not work this way. At this stage of the year, the points matter but as far as telling us something about the team, the shots ratio is probably the most relevant indicator and it’s not good.
Whether the Shooting Percentage sustainable or not (and it is not) the points are in the bank and the guys have had a chance to taste success. These are good things, compared to the alternatives.
The puck has no memory chip that causes an equal-amplitude variance below the sustainable line to offset the happy variance above the sustainable line.
So let’s expect average from here forward in terms of statistical performance, and slightly above average for a while in terms of self-confidence, and enjoy the ride.
Where are you in Croatia, MC? I went to Dubrovnik last year and it was awesome.
Didn’t we start 6-2 a couple of years ago.
How did that turn out?
- Mustafa Hirji
They started 1983 7-2-1. That turned out ok. What was your point?
What was your point?
That neither good start proves a thing. You just aided the argument.
Funny, I just looked at this the other day too. 107.3% is a lot.
I dunno, I’m not buying this team yet either but they have kept things reasonably close by the chances so it’s not all magic. At the same time they haven’t smoked anyone yet either and that includes the NSH game.
Shots are one thing, chances are another. They’ve been reasonably close.
Last night’s second period was pretty standard stuff for the Oilers early last season, badly outplayed, sometimes taking a beating, sometimes getting lucky.
I’ve seen most of the games this year, for once, and except for Chicago after about ten minutes and the second yesterday not too much sticks in my mind as an example of this club just being severely outmatched.
They have a ways to go but considering the injuries/flu bug as well I think they have made progress.
>What was your point?
>That neither good start proves a thing. You just aided the argument
That actually is my point. Commenting that the record this year looks like some other year’s record at the same time is meaningless.
The Oilers’ scoring chance ratio is currently 0.84 (169 For, 201 Against).
That’s better than their shot ratio, but not by a lot.