mc79hockey.com - bullshit concepts that dont elucidate or create an “ALL SEEING EYE” like baseball BULLSHIT in the chaos of hockey » Scoring Chances: G2 Stars at Oilers, Oct 6th

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Scoring Chances: G2 Stars at Oilers, Oct 6th

By Dennis

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20031

Team	Period	Time	Note	EDM						Opponent
EDM	1	16:51	PP 27	19	27	35	37	77	91	3	10	35	37	63		5v4
EDM	1	16:21	Goal PP 91	5	13	19	35	71	91	3	10	35	37	63		5v4
EDM	1	14:31	27	10	22	35	37	77	83	6	10	14	35	37	63	5v5
DAL	1	14:13		10	22	35	37	77	83	2	6	10	14	35	63	5v5
DAL	1	14:12	Goal	10	22	35	37	77	83	2	6	10	14	35	63	5v5
DAL	1	13:05		5	10	22	35	71	83	2	3	23	29	35	96	5v5
EDM	1	11:50	67	5	12	24	27	35	67	5	18	21	35	44	91	5v5
DAL	1	1:56		12	27	35	37	67	77	5	17	23	29	35	44	5v5
DAL	1	1:25		12	27	35	37	67	77	5	17	23	29	44	91	5v5
DAL	1	0:20		5	19	27	35	77		3	18	35	63	91	96	4v5
EDM	2	14:27	PP 27	19	27	35	44	71	91	3	23	35	37	91		5v4
DAL	2	14:03	Goal SH	10	22	35	44	71	83	2	6	17	18	35		5v4
EDM	2	13:25	Goal PP 89	13	35	37	46	77	89	2	6	17	29	35		5v4
DAL	2	10:19		10	19	22	24	35	37	6	23	29	35	37	96	5v5
DAL	2	8:11	PP	19	24	32	35	44		3	10	21	35	63	91	4v5
DAL	2	8:03	Goal PP	19	24	32	35	44		3	10	21	35	63	91	4v5
DAL	2	6:53		10	22	35	37	77	83	2	3	18	21	35	91	5v5
DAL	2	5:58	PP	10	13	35	37	77		5	18	21	29	35	91	4v5
EDM	2	4:15	12	5	12	27	35	67	71	3	23	29	35	37	96	5v5
DAL	2	3:11		10	22	35	37	77	83	2	3	18	21	35	91	5v5
DAL	2	3:09		10	22	35	37	77	83	2	3	18	21	35	91	5v5
EDM	2	1:54	Goal 27	12	27	35	44	71	91	5	14	29	35	44	63	5v5
DAL	2	0:15		10	24	35	44	83		6	18	35	37	91		4v4
DAL	2	0:06		10	24	35	44	83		6	18	35	37	91		4v4
DAL	3	18:55	PP	5	10	35	44			5	18	35	63	91		3v4
DAL	3	18:35	Goal PP	10	35	37	46	77		5	10	20	29	35	63	4v5
EDM	3	13:08	Goal 37	10	22	35	37	77	83	2	6	13	23	29	35	5v5
DAL	3	9:53	PP	10	27	35	37	77		5	10	14	35	63	91	4v5
DAL	3	6:12		12	22	24	35	44	67	2	3	17	23	29	35	5v5
EDM	3	4:48	10	10	22	35	37	77	83	2	3	18	21	35	91	5v5
DAL	4	4:23		10	24	35	44	83		2	3	18	35	91		4v4
EDM	4	3:47	77	5	19	35	77	89		5	6	10	35	63		4v4
EDM	4	1:14	5	5	13	35	71	89		2	3	10	35	63		4v4

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
5	L. SMID	13:47	4	1	0:10	1	0	2:36	0	2
10	S. HORCOFF	13:54	3	10	3:18	0	1	5:05	0	4
12	R. NILSSON	10:02	3	3	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
13	A. COGLIANO	10:38	1	0	0:55	2	0	1:06	0	1
19	P. O’SULLIVAN	11:04	1	1	3:19	3	0	4:29	0	3
22	J. JACQUES	9:56	3	8	3:21	0	1	0:27	0	0
24	S. STAIOS	17:20	1	5	0:59	0	0	5:06	0	2
27	D. PENNER	12:23	3	2	3:21	2	0	4:16	0	2
32	R. STONE	9:32	0	0	0:00	0	0	3:14	0	2
35	N. KHABIBULIN	46:15	8	13	7:37	4	1	10:44	0	7
37	D. GREBESHKOV	16:44	3	8	3:20	2	0	2:56	0	3
44	S. SOURAY	15:54	1	4	2:58	1	1	6:28	0	3
46	Z. STORTINI	9:25	0	0	1:00	1	0	0:10	0	1
67	G. BRULE	10:44	2	3	0:00	0	0	1:18	0	0
71	L. VISNOVSKY	15:16	3	1	4:16	2	1	0:00	0	0
77	T. GILBERT	14:24	4	7	3:31	2	0	4:22	0	4
83	A. HEMSKY	12:42	3	9	3:18	0	1	0:00	0	0
89	S. GAGNER	12:03	2	0	0:57	1	0	0:00	0	0
91	M. COMRIE	12:14	1	0	3:22	3	0	0:00	0	0

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	4	6	2	5	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
2	4	10	2	6	2	1	0	0	0	3	0	0
3	2	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0
4	2	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	12	21	8	13	4	1	0	0	0	7	0	0

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Coach PB says:

October 6th, 2009 at

Dennis - your chance at 4:48 of the third is incorrect. That was 27, not 22, on the ice.

Just double checked on DVR.

Dennis says:

Coach: Hmmm, that would be a problem with the NHL official stats, then. I just punch in the numbers and the site filters them; with the info coming straight from the league’s gear.

The evidence, if you please care.

Doh - I mean “care”, not “please care”.

Bruce says:

Fugly night for 22-10-83. Not only did they allow ~70% of the EV chances against in ~30% of the TOI, they were all three +0/-1 on the PP ferfuxsake. Horcoff played 22:17 and was on the ice for 15 of the 21 Dallas chances, just 3 of the 13 Oiler chances.

Most of the other forwards were pretty low event.

Hard to tell 22 and 27 apart, both big boys, LH shots with very similar numbers. It’d be easy for the scorekeeper to fall asleep and default to the guy who is supposedly on the line.

Scott Reynolds says:

October 7th, 2009 at

Truly abominable night for the first line. I’m not sure if the team is going for one big guy per line or one scrub per line since most of the big guys are also scrubs. I think we’ll find out soon though since Jacques looks fit for a demotion. If he’s replaced with Stone we’ll know it’s a scrub on every line. If it’s Penner, it’s a big guy. It actually looks like, chances-wise, a pretty decent night for the PK and a pretty bad night for the PP though two power play goals for and two power play goals against would seem to paint a different picture.

William says:

Ugh, I truly look forward to the year (far, far in the distance) when the Oilers are a team that outchances the opposition regularly. The past three years it feels like we get lucky whenever we win a game. Not too many games where I walk away feeling like we truly deserved a win.

Dennnis says:

William: Yeah, that’s a fair point. I have to say that I watched last night’s game and I never really expected the Oilers to win and I didn’t get excited when they held a lead or pressured.

In closing, I guess I’m pretty close to being the beaten-down fan who doesn’t expect anything.

Vic Ferrari says:

Yeah, Dennis. I’m not all-in any more either. The first game was good hockey to watch, though. And seeing Laforge wandering around pleading poverty to anyone who will listen … that’s not helping to alleviate my concerns about the Oilers’ culture of douchebaggery.

I just posted on the Oilers scoring chances at evens from last season. They had 47.7% of the total scoring chances and 47.8% of the total shots directed at net. That’s no hell.

To put that in perspective, in 93/94 Roger Neilson and Bobby Clarke built the Panthers from nothing, just the expansion draft and bragain baseent free agents, no prospect piepline. And on a shoestring budget. There isn’t a breakdown of EV and special teams at hockey-reference.com, but they had about the same number of PKs as PPs, so 45% of scoring chances as a best guess.

Neilson and Lindy Ruff cycled through a lot of fringe NHLers that year for sure. It would be cool to see the season splits for them (in terms of goals and shots for/against.)

The next season, the strike shortened 94/95 campaign, saw them hit 49%. Then Bobby went back to Philly and Neilson joined Keenan in St Louis. The next season they were about 51% in terms of shots on net … so our best guess is that they were averaging about 51% of the scoring chances in the games that season. Outchancing in year freaking three. And from nothing.

Then of course they had a good run with the pecentages to boot, esp. vanbiesbrouck (sp?) and especially the playoff run that built the careers of Terry Murray and Doug MacLean. It also built Lindy Ruff’s rep … so at least some good came of it.

My point … it’s not that freaking hard to at least be a ’should make the playoffs’ team, especially when you have a lot of cash to spend. And these guys aren’t just going to suddenly figure it out. Players that outchance, players that outschmance, you’ll never win a fantasy league with that thinking! … Kev and the boys want shiny dimes, dammit.

That ramble is all by my memory btw, probably some of it is a bit off.

Vic: I am hoping that something pulls me back in because it used to be a helluva lot of fun. You need to acknowledge the pain in order to appreciate the pleasure and when the Oilers made the playoffs from some of the years from ‘97-to-04, most of those years were a lot of fun to watch. Fuck, I would be honest-to-goodness depressed for the first two or three days after they were eliminated from the playoffs (I can especially remember being really down after they were knocked out in ‘98 and again in ‘03 because the Stars were on their last legs then and Salo just killed us).

Then, of course, there was that magical year of ‘06 when the Oilers were The Show and the nights of cheering lasted almost into the summer.

But since then it’s started to die for me.

I began to feel it once Pronger was dealt but then I at least cared enough to get angry. Of course, I also felt the same way about dealing Smyth and using the saved money for Souray.

It all begins to fade when you miss the playoffs year-after-year, though. Now I’m watching just for the sake of counting scoring chances trying to prove some hunches or throw some numbers out there for someone to crunch and perhaps add another insight into the pile.

But the days of living-and-dying with it are done.

Though I would gladly welcome them back:)

Yeah, I still hope the Oilers win, but I don’t bat an eye if I miss a game. And the list of things that are more important than going to an Oilers game, or catching one on TV … that’s a long list now. Which is probably for the best. Some playoff hockey might change that, I dunno.

Personally, the scoring chance stuff is keeping me in the internet conversation, for sure. With JLikens, Olivier, Scott and yourself tracking four teams; we’re going to get somewhere. I’m almost certain with some of it, but we’ll see when we see. There is value in this work, Dennis. A fuck of a lot more than the value of winning internet arguments. That’s something that the four of us will talk about before Christmas. None of us are doing God’s work, after all.

Thanks again in advance for the work this year Dennis. If nothing else, I appreciate the insight that is provided by the numbers you and Tyler and Vic crunch. There’s always the error factor and blind damn luck so you have to play the game, but I just can’t see how any management team couldn’t see the value in incorporating this kind of work into their decision-making process. If not in the short-term in a “hmm that’s interesting” basis, then at least in a season-to-season “holy fck, Staios is getting owned with Strudwick” kind of way. Maybe they do run with this stuff in the background, but it sure seems like the Oil make decisions based on shiny dimes and witch hazels sometimes.

It was definitely easier to cheer for the late 90’s version of the Oilers - we probably didn’t deserve to win a lot of games then either, but we survived on what was a lean budget on guys that always skated their nuts off and were easy to cheer for - Weight, Marchant, Grier, Smyth… You never expected anything and those first round wins felt like the Cup. The 05-06 team felt the same way. Now we’re up against the cap with a bunch of small unripe kids and a bunch of overpaid vets that for the most part look like they’d rather be polishing their end irons and management that looks rudderless (at least when we were selling off guys, it hurt but you knew what was going down). Anyone else find the body language of the team (other than Horcoff, Gagner, Cogs, Storts) really depressing?

I stopped living and dying with the Oilers ’round about ‘93. I had season tickets from 1977 and had seen virtually every meaningful home game of the glory years. I knew very early that this was a team of a lifetime and they didn’t disppoint. But by ‘93 they were all gone, the stars and the second tier guys had all been traded off or sold, and replaced with the likes of Shayne Fucking Corson and a whole bunch of other failed first-rounders from all over hell’s half acre. They were hardly “our” team any more, and certainly not “mine”.

I had to give up my season tix around that time but it was less hard than I supposed. I still love to attend live games and go as often as I can (~4-8 games per season) but the primary driver is the love of the game rather than of a particular team. (exception: Team Canada) Sure I’m still an Oilers fan and always will be, but I find at the game I’m (somewhat) more dispassionate and (much) more likely to see and appreciate players on both sides of the puck.

What I like about things like your scoring chance project, Dennis, is how they advance understanding of the game. It’s more of an intellectual exercise, which is a good idea at times when emotional investment is ebbing. By all means it makes sense to do it through the prism of one team rather than league-wide which would be an overwhelming task, but the fact it has caught on to a few observers of other teams is very promising. Didn’t Project Scoresheet start something like that?

Vic: I look forward to your proposal;)

Bruce: I can’t get even get behind Team Canada all that much anymore because of guys like Pierre McGuire and because of networks like TSN. I used to love the World Juniors but I had to stop listening to it because it was just overkill.

Dennis: Yeah, I’m getting the same way about the World Juniors. The World Seniors on the other hand turns my crank every single year.

Bruce: I’m really not caught up At All in who’s gonna fill out the Olys roster so I’m probably gonna be late to that party as well. I know I was super-jacked for ‘02 and a bunch of us took turns hosting at each other’s houses and it was a great time. And I’ll never really be able to explain how silent the streets were in St. John’s that day. I remember a bunch of us watched it at my cousin’s place over on NF Drive and that’s usually an ultra busy area. But there was a lineup for people getting beer at the gas station just down the street and during the three periods you wouldn’t see a car going down the street.

Hard to explain that to someone.

Julian says:

October 8th, 2009 at

I’ve gotten to the point where I figure Team Canada is now my favourite team, in whatever incarnation there might be. I mean, if I had to choose between Canada winning gold in Van City, and the Oilers winning the Cup this year… it’d be hard, but I know which way I’d end up picking.

I do have trouble separating it from the NHL though sometimes… I just ordered a Vancouver TC sweater (through some cheap, underground back-channels….) where I could choose from about 8 names to go on the back. I went with Toews cause I couldn’t put Iginla, Pronger, Getzlaf, Bouwmeester, or Luongo on the back of any jersey I might own.