Two points before the main one: 1) Colin Hay is a pretty fantastic songwriter and he’s aged better than most. 2) Everyone bagging on Tom Gilbert and the second assists should ease up. At ES, he’s got a normal split of first/second assists. He only really piles up the second assists on the PP, which everyone on the Oilers whose name isn’t with Ales Hemsky does.
To my main point. Dany Heatley’s Wheel of My Next Team (the NHL stores it beside Colin Campbell’s Wheel of Justice) is slowing slightly and the only logos on the board seem to belong to the Oilers. Per Brownlee at OilersNation:
A discussion I had today, plus the circumstances of this situation, lead me to believe the deal can be done and the spin will begin.
I’m in favour of this trade, although I can’t be bothered to do a full explanation of my reasoning until and if it actually happens. It boils down to making the best use of your resources - fifth defencemen, soft wingers with respectable hands and centres who can’t win faceoffs are a hell of a lot easier to find than guys who can score like Dany Heatley.
The current complaint seems to be about Heatley’s backchecking. Lowetide’s thread is rife with discussion of it. I don’t watch enough Senators games to have a firm opinion either way but, when you’re talking about a guy like Heatley, it almost doesn’t matter.
I’ve posted previously on Heatley’s ES scoring rates and how dominant he is. He’s averaged 2.68 ESP/60 over the past four years, with 1.27 ESG/60 and 1.41 ESA/60. Guys like that routinely post monster plusses at ES. I have the 05-06, 06-07 and 08-09 data at my fingertips, so I’m going to use that. Here are the key ES numbers for all of the guys who posted at least 2.50 ESP/60 in those seasons:
It might be a little tough to read (let me know if it is in the comments and I’ll try to post the data somewhere else), so I’ll just provide an explicit statement of the point: 90 guys in those seasons managed to post 2.5 ESP/60 or better (Heatley has better that three times). They average +1.15 ESGD/60. The only minuses on the list are Cory Stillman and Eric Staal. At some point, if you’re that good offensively and that good at finishing your chances, the other guys can’t keep up, even if you dog it back to the defensive zone from time to time. Pair him with Horcoff and forget about it.
1100 minutes of Heatley in this territory and you can arguably expect a top line that comes up with a +15 to +20 at ES. That’s the kind of team where you can imagine Sam Gagner and Patrick O’Sullivan growing into a second scoring line that makes some noise and, if they get the bottom of the roster sorted, a group that doesn’t give too much of it back. You can see how this team plus Heatley can become a contender, although the Khabibulin contract is still a drag.
Teams like the Oilers don’t get a lot of opportunities to attract a talent like Dany Heatley. It’s worth ignoring whatever warts there might be and doing whatever’s necessary to get him on board.
Well said.
I can’t see how anyone thinks he’s not a helluva player. He is.
But I’ll believe him as an Oiler only when I see it. I see him as San Jose Shark and sitting out until he gets his way.
Cheechoo, a depth defenceman and a 1st pick going the other way.
Thornton and Heatley would be a hell of a combination. SJ has some cap problems though and Cheechoo ain’t what he once was.
David Staples:
Penner, Cogliano, Smid >> Cheechoo, low 1st, depth defenseman
It doesn’t matter how much Heatley wants another option if Murray doesn’t like the deal.
And I agree with you on Heatley, Tyler - warts aside, the proposed trade is clearly a win for Edmonton, and whatever Cogliano and Smid end up being it seems highly unlikely that they end up being Heatley.
For the record, my issue with the deal is with regard to Cogliano. The “centre who can’t win faceoffs” isn’t helping win hockey games currently but he’s building a nice foundation for a quality career.
jmo.
Sure LT but at what cost? I mean, I would assume you agree that Cogliano, if he pans out like we hope, won’t be a difference maker on Heatley’s level. He’ll cost more money as he gets older. If you could kick him forward seven years into the future now, possibly by way of a time machine that lets you get future Cogs from 2016, wouldn’t you do it? What if you could get something better?
The fatal flaw in these deals is when you’re getting something that isn’t truly elite now. Like moving picks for Dustin Penner. Dany Heatley…that’s something you move some future for.
But we’re doing it too soon, Tyler. And we’re sending away someone who we don’t know about. I swear, it’s been happening for years. Habs keep Guy Lafleur even though he’s running in place and the Habs fans boo him, but Pollock just gets more and more stubborn. Meanwhile the Oakland Seals send out Charlie Simmer for a pack of lightbulbs and an Eat-More.
Word tonight Columbus wouldn’t touch this deal. Why? Aren’t they farther along than the Oilers? I don’t think they are.
The Oilers are in this damn middle ground and its galling. It’s where the Canucks and Jets used to be. Sometimes I wish they’d hire George Burnett again.
That should read “I think they are” in regard to Columbus.
(a)How convinced, if at all, are you that trading for Heatley at the rumored trade cost is a better option than simply signing Tanguay and shifting a couple other guys around to make the cap work? Or is it simply a case of, in your opinion, Tanguay not being an option - either because the Oilers won’t sign him or he won’t sign in EDM? What sort of price point on Tanguay, more or less, makes you indifferent?
(b) How much credence do you give to the idea that the Heatley EDM is trading for is not likely to be the same player he has been over the past 4 seasons, due to the historical aging patterns of a player’s goalscoring? Or do you think the aging concern is real, but even at a theoretically reduced production level Heatley would still prove worth it?
In fairness, I should mention the aging thing clearly applies to Tanguay as well, given they are the same age (more or less).
for (a), the last sentence should finish “… indifferent between the two options?”
I think you’re being a hair loose with “elite”… There has to be some concern about (A) how much of his success is owed to some seriously quality linemates, and (B) that all that success came in the Quadruple-A conference.
Notwithstanding health, I don’t see Heatley as being in, say, Marian Gaborik’s league as a player. He’s the tier below.
…And we’re sending away someone who we don’t know about. I swear, it’s been happening for years. Habs keep Guy Lafleur even though he’s running in place and the Habs fans boo him, but Pollock just gets more and more stubborn. Meanwhile the Oakland Seals send out Charlie Simmer for a pack of lightbulbs and an Eat-More.
I think we agree that Dany Heatley isn’t a pack of lightbulbs and an Eat-More. With respect to LaFleur, while the risk is there, I don’t think any of us really think that Cogliano is the next LaFleur. He might be, there’s risk, but that’s at the extremes of probability.
There’s also the fact that Pollock owned LaFleur’s soul, whereas the Oilers are just renting Cogliano’s rights for the next five years, as long as he deigns to play here.
Word tonight Columbus wouldn’t touch this deal. Why? Aren’t they farther along than the Oilers? I don’t think they are.
Columbus has different problems than the Oilers. Fewer fat deals eating up cap room, and less money to spend.
@Speeds: I think that shifting around contracts is going to be harder than you’d think. I also think Heatley’s a level beyond Tanguay. With respect to Heatley’s aging pattern, it’s a concern, no doubt, but 28-32 is still generally part of the meat of a player’s career.
I’m a big fan of going for a gradual rebuild through the draft, adding support players via free agency (the Sauers, Pahlssons, etc.) and generally making solid, patient progress. Tanguay probably falls in this plan somewhere.
The Oilers aren’t going to do that though. They’re going to go big-game hunting until their money is spent, and the deal as we know it for Heatley is in their favour. None of the players traded will eclipse the Ottawa forward, and one of the overpays on the roster would be heading the other direction.
Heatley isn’t a move I would be making in Tambellini’s shoes because it doesn’t fit with the general model of team-building I’d be pursuing, but for a team determined to run on this particular course it’s a good move.
I think the Oilers could buy a few years of free agency from Cogliano, but point taken. I think it’s too early in the process to do this and dealing Cogliano at this early stage is a poor bet. We’re dealing a player for a better one at a much higher rate of pay.
I’d be much happier doing this deal two years from now, when we knew better what Cogliano will be and the Oilers should be better able to handle the NW (Gagner two years older, Hemsky in his prime, etc).
That said, if the deal goes through the Oilers look much better 09-10, which makes sense if you’re going to sign Quinn to coach and Khabibulin to play goal.
The problem with doing it in two years is a) you might not have an option like Heatley available and b) scouts might not be looking at Cogs and dreaming of LaFleur. You’ve got to be willing to trade some future possibility to get some now. Most of the time, players don’t turn into what they are in the scout’s mind, so usually you don’t get burned.
Who makes the Oilers more competetive over Hemsky’s last two seasons: A 23/24 year old Cogliano, or 29/30 Heatley?
I stake my left nut that Heatley is more of an impact playe during Hemsky’s final seasons in Edmonton than Cogs projects to be. And doesn’t everyone agree that the Oilers have to take a stab at winning before Hemsky’s sweetheart deal is up?
And that’s it in a nutshell, Tyler. It depends on how you want to build and the kind of sustain you’re hoping for, and clearly for the organization it’s time to make the playoffs.
That is the goal.
It would take a miracle of staggering proportions for Hemsky to re-sign in ‘12, unless the Oilers can become competetive by then, which may take a miracle in and of itself.
It would be heartbreaking for Hemsky to be traded in March 2012 or be allowed to walk in July without the Oilers having ever had a sniff at some hardware.
A serious fucking travesty.
I fully agree Tyler.
It’d be a fantastic trade… virtually throws the organization back to where we should’ve been after the cup run, with the added bonus of Hemsky having more experience, Tom Gilbert & Denis Grebeshkov, and of course Sam “Douggie Weight” Gagner.
How does trading Brodziak fit in with this Now plan, again? I’m only barely being facetious — isn’t he useful at $1M-ish for a team trying to make a push?
The only plausible answer would seem to be that the org thinks he’s not much of a hockey player, no? For whatever their criteria are?
I don’t think there are as many Saurers and Phalssons to be had as some think. You know, I can think of Saurer, Hejda… and then it take a season or two to even confirm if these guys are the real deal. With defenseman anyways, where so uch is reliant on forwards and the quality of goaltending behind them.
Ecspecially in a guy like Saurer’s case where it appear real easy to spot by math in the summer of their free agency. If he had become a UFA this summer rather than the one before, playing an entire year in fornt of Raycroft/Budaj and behind an oft-injured and under performing crop of forwards, he may have looked merely like a 5/6 D option.
These sweetheart math steals aren’t falling off the trees like ripened fruit.
Was Brodziak ever that useful?
I mean, sure, he took some face-offs.
They don’t have enough roster spots, Matt. They’ve got all sorts of guys coming up for fourth line spots and Brodziak wasn’t climbing up fast enough to make room.
Irreplaceable? Not at all. But you haven’t lost last year’s Brodziak, you’ve lost this year’s, which would probably be X percent better, no? And somebody still has to take his shifts.
Somebody who’ll throw their goddamn body around, presumably!
Slipper, I know full well that you appreciate the importance of Context wrt evaluating results, but one wouldn’t get that impression reading this thread.
Again - and forget about ‘backchecking’ - you all pretty sure that Dany Heatley is a superstar talent?
Jonathan, U agree that the San Jose deal I’m talking about with Cheechoo, a depth defenceman and a first round pick is far less than what the Oilers are offering. But I see zero reason to believe that Heatley will come to the Oilers.
I believe the Oilers were being used by Heatley and Ottawa to leverage up the asking price from the Rangers.
At this point, I think Heatley would much rather stick it to Murray, and either sit out the year, or go to Russia, than give Murray the deal with the Oilers.
First off, Heatley doesn’t want to come here, or he would be here now. Second, this is ugly between Heatley and the Sens now. As TSN’s McKenzie had said, this is like an old time ugly contract stand off.
So Murray is faced with a choice — either have Heatley sit out or see him go play in Russia, or Murray can go for the next best deal on the table, which will be a considerable downgrade from the Oilers offer.
That should be “Jonathan, I agree . . .”
Again - and forget about ‘backchecking’ - you all pretty sure that Dany Heatley is a superstar talent?
I’m pretty sure Matt. I mean, much as I think shooting percentage is largely random, I also think that guys have true talents that range wildly. Some of ‘em are higher on the spectrum than others. I believe that Heatley’s an honest to god finisher and that’s what makes him elite. The numbers, IMO, just too good to be Spezza alone, particularly when you look at his track record and pedigree. Looking at that list above, I don’t see a lot of guys and think “His linemates did that”. I certainly don’t see any of them there twice.
David - if Heatley said no to the Oilers deal, Murray would stop dicking around hoping that he’d eventually accept it. I would be surprised (although I’ve been wrong) if there’s anyone willing to best that deal now who wasn’t ready to do so when they were being told that the deadline was July 1 and that the Oilers had the best deal on the table. Maybe someone gets desperate, maybe not.
The key is this: As long as Heatley doesn’t say no to the Oilers, it reduces Murray’s incentive to find something better or to accept the reality that he’s going to be stuck with a lesser return. If he wasn’t coming here, he would have said no. If I was his agent, I would have advised him to say no. I don’t see the upside to keeping the Oil hanging that you do.
But you haven’t lost last year’s Brodziak, you’ve lost this year’s, which would probably be X percent better, no? And somebody still has to take his shifts.
Somebody who’ll throw their goddamn body around, presumably!
I’m not wild about Brodziak but I don’t disagree with this. They’re excited to see what they have in Gilbert Brule is, I guess, the only real answer. I don’t know that that gets them any further to being a playoff team but, as I say when I want to irritate people who want an answer of substance from me, it is what it is.
@slipper - I’m starting to come around to the idea of WOWY for defencemen, with adjustment for opposition and faceoff location. Given that we can derive on-ice save percentages and shooting percentages now and that we know that they seem to generally play a lot with most of the forwards on the team, it seems to me that you could probably come up with a reasonable measure of their ES value on that basis.
On Sauer - man did Gretzky ever ride him and Michalek hard this year - 3rd and 8th in the NHL, respectively, in terms of faceoff location, amongst guys who took at least 500 draws. Meanwhile is 22nd if you start counting from the other end and he was ES -10 to Sauer’s ES - 12. Michaelek was -19, but had a bad save percentage behind him.
The future is bright as far as models to value players is concerned, I think.
So I guess just so I’m clear and on the record: I think Heatley is a bad bet to perform to, let alone beat, his contract. I think the chance that Penner is within 10 goals of him next year is non-trivial.
You’re selling low on Penner (though disposing of him wrt his contract is fine). You’re getting rid of Smid (and Brodziak) right before his one contract that’s likely to be really good value.
I’m totally OK with giving up the popcorn in the pot (Cogliano) for proven performance. But the package as a whole doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, especially in the context of Tambo’s other moves.
I think the idea that Heatley turns the Oil into a playoff team is probably wishful thinking, and that said, while making is better than missing, this can’t possibly turn the Oilers into bonafide contenders.
With Heatley, they look to me like a mediocre team with a 40-goal scorer. With no flexibility to adjust the roster if that’s the case. I think they need Khabibulin to outperform his deal next season to be any good.
So Heatley is saying “maybe” to the Oilers because he still hasn’t made up his mind?
Perhaps.
What turned it for me was re-reading all the June 30 and July 1 posts and stories from guys like Garrioch, Millard, Spector, Dreger, guys who were clearly talking to Heatley’s agent, and they all focused on one thing — how this was all about getting Heatley to the Rangers, where he really wanted to go.
Now, maybe you’re right Tyler that some part of Heatley is amenable to the Oilers, but I see his not turning down the Oilers as him not wanting to be seen as a guy who was just playing the Oilers; he wanted to keep the facade going.
Now maybe he also wanted to keep the Edmonton option open, too, as you suggest. . .
We shall see.
Matt: You forget we’re buying low on Heatley.
He’s 2 seasons removed from back-to-back 50 goal and 100 point seasons.
All of 28 years old.
And plays a game that relies a lot more on smarts (finding open ice) and talent (hammering the puck into the net) than physical tools - so he should age well.
With Heatley, they look to me like a mediocre team with a 40-goal scorer.
Of course, there aren’t actually very many teams that fit this description. There have been 39 40-goal scorers since the lockout, only nine missed the playoffs, and five of the nine were named either “Ilya Kovalchuk” or “Alex Ovechkin”.
With Heatley, they look to me like a mediocre team with a 40-goal scorer.
You could trade us Kipper and we could flame out in the first round a few years in a row.
You could trade us Kipper and we could flame out in the first round a few years in a row.
Based on his last two years, I don’t think losing in the playoffs would be much of a concern. Swap him for Roloson last year, and the Oilers are deep in the lottery.
I’m excited to see how the team looks when/if) the Heatley deal goes through, I really do see them (the Mighty Oil) as more then the sum of their parts:
-On paper the HHH line would seem to be outstanding, Hemsky finally has a finisher and all Horcoff has to worry about is back-checking, reprising the Morrison role of the infamous West-coast Express line
- A deadly first line like that will allow POS & Gagner to develop without the added pressure of ‘having’ to score.
- The third & fourth lines are in a bit of disarray right now, but as we’ve learned multiple times over the last several years, it’s much easier to plug holes in the 9-12 spot, then it is to plug holes in your top 6. A couple smart, cap-friendly signings and we’re looking good.
- The D right now looks pretty tremendous. Granted we’re missing a big minute-eater, but a top 4 of Souray, Vish, Gilbert & Grebs with a guy like Peckham bubbling under should be grounds for optimism. Again, a relatively low-key signing for your 5/6 spot to help stabilize the D is much easier then picking up a top 2.
- The goaltending….is well, the goaltending. The contract + length seems a bit sketchy, but if Bulin can play a half-decent game, we should be alright, no?
Matt: Eh? Even if you handicap Broziak 90 shot attempts against for last season’s face-off differential it doesn’t appear to be an outrageous loss to me. Would I rather have Brodziak than a 4th and 5th? Yeah, I would have liked to have seen what he could have progressed into. If my -360 Corsi team doesn’t have a manager competent enough to address the loss of this player type, particularly his face-offs, well I’m fucked anyways. Why step on my own nut for the next three months bemoaning the loss of another bottom six’er? There will be plenty of that to endure throughout another season.
MC79: WOWY? I don’t argue that with proper context there exists a good player evaluatiing model. I just think that people present these as the status quo of what deals are out there to be had for a “smart” GM when they’re actually pretty rare. Two quality top minute defenders who, previous to their deals, had good underlying numbers and signed at disgustingly good price points.
If you had never heard of Kurt Saurer and were evaluating him today by this past season’s numbers, he doesn’t look like the absolute steal he did last summer. His Corsi is bad, his EV +/-, not a producer… Taking a tonne of own zone face-offs doesn’t necessarily make a guy a worthwhile player in and of itself, but it does tell me who the guy with his job on theline trusted when he was trying to prevent goals.
Then again, sometimes a coach gives 350 d-zone draws to a Kyle Brodziak simply because he has no ther option.
To solve the Lowetide/MC standoff, I’d calculate market values of each of the players involved, subtract the actual cap hit of the two portfolios, and take the one with the higher number. This is complicated of course, because determining the free market value of Heatley is hard (he’s subject to the individual player cap, and there is no “unconstrained” market). I think, like most exponential distributions (which is what hockey ability should be), it’s very hard to make up for one Heatley with any number of Coglianos.
Let’s do this. Let’s build a bell curve on each player with their peak at about 28-29 years old, and then slice off the parts that haven’t happened yet.
Then lets not de-value the money spent on Heatley and filter the bell curves through that (money) lens.
Then, let’s ask ourselves a question: “is this team good enough to win the Stanley Cup if the Oilers deal for Heatley?”
This isn’t Rick Middleton for Ken Hodge, and Heatley would be a valuable acquistion for any team. But I’d sure as hell prefer the Oilers were farther down the road with these young players who could make a difference.
WOWY? I don’t argue that with proper context there exists a good player evaluatiing model.
WOWY is with or without you. Tom Tango has done a lot with it.
I just think that people present these as the status quo of what deals are out there to be had for a “smart” GM when they’re actually pretty rare. Two quality top minute defenders who, previous to their deals, had good underlying numbers and signed at disgustingly good price points.
Yeah…I still don’t think Sauer’s season looks that bad. The difference in faceoffs between him and Jovanovski, for example, is just massive: 347D/538O for Jovo, 403D/165O for Sauer. Someone (preferably not me;)) needs to come up with a conversion factor on those.
Yeah…I still don’t think Sauer’s season looks that bad. The difference in faceoffs between him and Jovanovski, for example, is just massive: 347D/538O for Jovo, 403D/165O for Sauer. Someone (preferably not me;)) needs to come up with a conversion factor on those.
Do you know how to get Vic’s site to show the faceoff data from 2007-08? If I knew how to do that, I’d take a stab at doing up conversions.
Fodder for the “Heatley or Tanguay” Debate
Percentile Rankings for all Forwards who played 41 games in that year. I personally prefer using the % rankings because it controls for variation in the scoring environment and shows a player relative to his peers.
Heatley Even Strength Points per Hour Ranking
2006: 96%
2007: 97%
2008: 97%
2009: 78%
Tanguay Even Strength Points per Hour Ranking
2006: 98%
2007: 99%
2008: 84%
2009: 91%
Heatley ES TOI Percentile Ranking
2006: 96%
2007: 97%
2008: 99%
2009: 98%
Tanguay ES TOI Percentile Ranking
2006: 89%
2007: 83%
2008: 82%
2009: 43%
(Tanguay’s ES Per game fell from 18.76 to 16.09 last season)
RE: Sauer
In this post by Vic at IOF, it’s said that, at the level of individual players, each additional defensive zone draw is equivalent to -0.6 Fenwick.
Now, in applying this to Sauer’s numbers, I get:
FENWICK: -217
ZONE DIFFERENTIAL*: -238
ADJUSTED FENWICK: -74.2
*starting draws at EV
Considering that the guy played tough minutes on a poor EV team, that’s not terrible at all.
Jonathan,
To get the data for 2007-08 add “/0708″ at the end of the URL. So for the Oilers it would look like:
http://www.timeonice.com/teamfaceoffs.php?team=EDM&first=20001&last=21230/0708
Thanks, Scott.
People rushing to Saurer’s defense are completely missing my real point: That these obvious cheap and available impact signings aren’t always so obvious (as in the case of a Saurer or Hejda) or available. As if there were a shitload of tough minute, positive result players to be had at a bargain.
@JLikens: Probably still worth a 1.5 million dollar offer. No doubt.
What turned a lot of people on to him (myself inlcuded) was his quality of comp number and his +15. Albeit, his shot attempt differential was tied for last amongst Colorado’s defence.
This season his Corsi was -377 and he was EV -8. A bit lucky there, I think. When a team’s getting outshot that badly I can’t get myself to believe there’s anything special a guy is doing on the ice to effect the bottom when they posted season of 0.44 and 0.26 points per hour at evens.
I don’t know what the conversion is for Corsi, and I was refering to Vic’s post there when I suggested spotting Brodziak 90 shot attempts for his 150 extra d-zone draws, but I guess I confused it for Fenwick.
@Scott: I tried that link and it generated this past season’s face-off data.
@MC: With regard to what (WOWY)? I’d really like to see an explanation in a future post, because I’m a full fledged believer that the blue liners are at the mercy of the forwards in front of them. Atleast in respect to their underlying numbers and EV+/-.
Oh crap. Thanks for catching that Slipper. I put the “0708″ in the wrong spot. Here it is correctly:
http://www.timeonice.com/teamfaceoffs0708.php?team=EDM&first=20001&last=21230
I don’t know what the conversion is for Corsi, and I was refering to Vic’s post there when I suggested spotting Brodziak 90 shot attempts for his 150 extra d-zone draws, but I guess I confused it for Fenwick.
Slipper: Whilst it is only one example, that of Horcoff and Brodziak is an exceptionally clean one. In ‘08-09, they were on ice together for 68 faceoffs, 67 of them in the defensive zone.
Zone Start +66
Shot differential = -24 —> -0.36
Fenwick differential = -38 —> -0.58
Corsi differential = -53 —> -0.80
That Fenwick result is mighty close to the cited -0.6 per own-zone draw. The comparable Corsi seems to be around -0.8, and intuitively it seems in the ballpark. Which led me to conclude that Brodziak’s ZoneStart imbalance put a dint in his Corsi on the order of -120.