Loser Move, Part II
by Tyler Dellow • July 1, 2009 • Uncategorized • 14 Comments
There seems to be some sort of a misunderstanding in the comments below about Nikolai Khabibulin’s established level of performance. Here are the save percentages of all goalies who have faced at least 5000 shots since 2005-06.
And he’s old. And he’s injury prone. And there were other options available. This is just an horrendously bad decision on the part of the Oilers.
Is $3.75 million/y too much to pay for an average goalie, though? I agree, he’s not great, and for the same dollars I’d rather have Roloson (even with the age difference), but if this lets you go after some skaters, I don’t hate the deal too much.
It’s a ball and chain, not a boat anchor, no? Now, Heatley in return for the entire future, that’s a different question.
I don’t agree with the premise that he’s an average goalie or particularly that he’s like to be one moving forward. Time will tell.
combined save percentages rank in the NHL since the lockout based on qualifed goalies with more than a single season.
31st of 52. Awesome.
I thought Cole for O’Sullivan + Kotalik was a clever, good trade. I was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt on Brodziak, pending the follow up moves. The 3rd round pick at the draft was a waste of a resource – if not to pick up an actual player, why not use it as a bargaining chip? Now this deal for Khabi is just plain bad on so many levels.
I hate to agree that this franchise is headed firmly toward loserdom. Wish I could ditch this girlfriend…
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I can’t even express how heartened I am. If something like this can happen, then Kipper is definitely tradeable.
Kipper was always tradeable Matt. The problem is that damn Sutter won’t trade him already!!!
Hey look at the guy who is #7 on that list!
@macndub
3.75 guaranteed to an old guy, for average goaltending is a huge overpayment. It was mentioned in the other thread, and I know Tyler has mentioned several times in other posts, about the Detroit goaltending model, where they realize that once you get below the top tier Lou/Henrik type guys that you’ve got very small differences in quality, and outrageous differences in cost. Ozzie has cost the Wings less than 2M the last few years, I believe. He’s been pretty average, except for last regular season. Just because some teams spend a shitload on an average goalie doesn’t make it smart of even acceptable. The team should be trying to get as cheap a deal as they can on every contract.
Also, as was mentioned in the thread at BoC, there was a lot of speculation that someone would get the Blackhawks off the hook for stupid salary cap management by taking Huet off their hands. And several of us thought Edmonton would do it. Thank you so much for not pulling their bacon out of the fire. I’m going to laugh so hard at them, watching an up and coming contender in the West get absolutely throttled by piss poor cap management.
The goaltender is all about the coach.
Quinn needed a goaltender who he had heard of before to have “confidence” in the goaltender. “Moneypuck” goaltending acquisition isn’t going to work for a guy who wasn’t familiar with the Oilers roster when he was hired, much less the players, marginal players in the league.
I agree that a “moneypuck” goaltender should have been acquired, and if we had gone for a modern coach (Dineen, Arniel), that would have worked.
But we went for a “name” coach in Quinn, and Quinn would have been freaked out without a goaltender he had not heard of before.
That said. Khabibulin is a good goaltender when he is good. It is just that he hasn’t been good very often. The Oilers are not a disaster on defense like Chicago was when he went there.
The goaltender signing is consistent with the coach signing, that is all I am arguing.
Kinger posted this at LT’s:
http://www.fromtherink.com/2009/4/27/855434/measuring-expected-save-percentage
I think I remember you being critical of it, but thought I’d raise it for discussion.
Another reason Khabi is an overpay: if you’re willing to pay your goalie 4-5 mil this year, why not trade a bucket of warm spit to the Capitals for Theodore? No, JT isn’t particularly good overall, but to quote godot10: “[goalie] is a good goaltender when he is good. It is just that he hasn’t been good very often.” Applies to Theodore just as much as Khabibulin. And Theodore’s contract only lasts one more year, so you’re not committed to squat – which beats hell out of anything you’ll get via UFA.
godot… Quinn would be very familiar with Biron, considering Biron did Pretty good against Quinn’s Leafs the last 3 years he coached in the NHL (2.57GAA .912sv%).
Grunthos: Send Staios to Washington for Theodore. That would be doubly good.