These last eight games very well could be Bouwmeester’s last in a Panthers uniform after 470 without a single playoff appearance, and I don’t think anyone will begrudge him that decision. But you already know the naysayers are on the way, and that Martin’s decision March 4 to roll the dice and go with the group he’s got is about to be criticized by pundits everywhere.
He gambled big, hoping for the best from a group likely two or three years away from a real chance, and it looks like it’ll cost them.
James Mirtle, From the Rink
The Panthers currently sit two points out of a playoff spot, with most of the teams above them having games in hand. With that said, I can’t buy James’ statement that Martin “gambled big”. Here are the pre and post deadline records for the teams in the playoff race in the East.
Trade Deadline Post-Trade Deadline GP W L T P GP W L T P Montreal 63 34 22 7 75 10 3 5 2 8 Florida 64 33 23 8 74 10 2 5 3 7 Pittsburgh 65 33 26 6 72 10 7 1 2 16 New York 64 32 24 8 72 10 7 3 0 14 Carolina 65 33 27 5 71 11 8 1 2 18 Buffalo 63 31 25 7 69 10 4 5 1 9
At the trade deadline, Florida had a 91% chance of making the playoffs, according to www.sportsclubstats.com. What’s killed the Panthers isn’t going 2-3-5, it’s going 2-3-5 while three teams below them were playing .700+ hockey.
Was it a big gamble not to trade Bouwmeester? It’s hard to say without knowing what the return. I’ve argued here and elsewhere that one player can’t be expected to make that much of a difference over a small period. Even if Bouwmeester is worth four wins above replacement, which seems like a lot, the Cats would have been giving up one expected win by trading him. Not a huge difference. From a hockey perspective, whatever they turned down probably was more valuable than the rights to Bouwmeester for twenty games.
But, when you’re in a playoff race for the first time in forever and your team is in an iffy hockey market, it gets a little easier to understand the decision not to cash in a guy like Bouwmeester. We don’t know what offers the Panthers had for him (at least I haven’t heard) but it’s hard to criticize a team that looked to be solidly in a playoff spot for failing to wave the white flag on a season, particularly when they haven’t had any success in forever. I don’t know of any research that’s been done in hockey but Baseball Prospectus has estimated the value of a playoff appearance in baseball as being as much as $35MM. The numbers are undoubtedly smaller in hockey and probably more so in bad hockey markets but you can see why the Panthers might have been hesitant to mess around with their playoff chances.
Even the best GM’s sometimes have a move (or a non-move) blow up in their faces. While it’s impossible to say without knowing the return that was available, I have a hard time saying that this was a big gamble or one that the Panthers shouldn’t have made, even if the results are less than they would have hoped.
I thought it was the wrong decision back in February when Florida was in a play-off position because their results didn’t look sustainable to me. Their goaltending was out of this world and they were giving up like 40 shots on net per night. I assumed, therefore, they would falter down the stretch or get killed in the first round if they made the dance anyways (Bouwmeester or no Bouwmeester), meaning the primary goal of the club should have been to get better in the long run.
Tyler: Aren’t you arguing the opposite point? I mean, the Panthers were gambling whatever the return was for Bouwmeester (likely a 1st round pick and a good young roster player) on the notion that Bouwmeester would make enough of a difference over the final 18 games to get them into the playoffs. As you state, over that small a segment one player isn’t likely to make a big difference.
So Martin gambling big (1st round pick, player) on a sucker’s bet (Bouwmeester making the difference over 18 games) did he not?
I think Tyler’s point with regard to the “gamble” is that the Panthers should have been able to make the playoffs and if they did it would mask the fact that holding on to Bouwmeester was probably the wrong choice. Further, if Bouwmeester really is worth 2 points in the last quarter of the season (which seems like a pretty high estimate) then it may well be worth keeping him if the Panthers are in need of good publicity and playoff cashflow. With regard to Kent’s point, even if they were due to fall back a little bit, they have been unfortunate in that two of the teams behind them (and maybe three if you include NY) are now playing over their heads.
I think Martin honestly looked long and hard at moving Bouwmeester and couldn’t get the return as high as he wanted. Teams were effectively looking to dump salaries like Bieksa and Lupul in return, and he went with the idea that Bouwmeester over 20 games, a playoff spot and the cap space this summer was a better option.
Scott’s got my point.
Teams have to be leery of the marketing consequences too. Rightly or wrongly, ditching Bouwmeester in an extremely fragile hockey market would have screamed white flag. I can see the argument that the considerations are different than Edmonton where the formula seems to be toss local hero overboard + knife him in the papers = profit!
Kent’s point is well taken BUT I think that there’s some real value for FLA in getting a playoff berth.
Absolutely. Waving the white flag whatever the market is bad PR - remember the White Sox infamous trade when they were 3 games out I believe. They weren’t going to catch Cleveland (and that was their argument) and they got a bunch of kids iirc but it went down poorly.
The reaction in Florida would be muted but for those people who do care it might very well kill that caring. You might tell them that their level of play was unsustainable but trading one of your best players (your best player?) while in a playoff spot?
That might push a teetering franchise over the edge.
Interesting to see what happens with Kovalchuk although I suspect Atlanta won’t be near the playoffs next year.
Every situation has it’s own mitigating circumstances but I’m always wary of guys that justify moves - or in this case - non-moves because of what it might mean for the overall health of the franchise.
The threat of doom can never ever be realized unless a team falls so far out of favour as to be moved; so, you can basically make whichever move and justify it along the way.
A couple of years ago the Thrash dealt away Coburn for a Zhitnik rental because they felt they absolutely had to make the playoffs. Years and years ago, Omar Minaya dealt away Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee AND Grady Sizemore because if the Expos made the playoffs, it might save the franchise;) Of course, Minaya was trying to angle for his next job - and it’s probably something I would’ve done myself - and that was the real story.
The best point I saw here was Mirtle’s idea that some of the players you would’ve picked up for JB would’ve eaten up cap space and that alone might have been reason enough not to deal him.
Now, personally, if I’m Martin and I’ve got the feeling that JB isn’t gonna resign, I just deal off the guy and move on. Is there anyone that believes they can win a playoff round? Is there anyone who believes that playing seven games in the first round will be enough to convince JB of potential future potency for this current core of players?
I don’t believe so.
I guess the unknown is what Martin and everyone else always say: we could have done irreparable damage to the franchise by pulling the chute and showing a lack of faith to our fans.
The only difference in all the examples I could name would be the Expos but that’s a case in itself.
Well Dennis, I’d think they’d have at least a 30% chance against any of the teams at the top of the East in a best of seven. It may not be great, but it’s been known to happen from time to time.
This also strikes me as a bit different than moving Coburn for Zhitnik mostly because Bouwmeester is better than Zhitnik and he don’t really know what was on the table for Bouwmeester. If the best offer is similar to what the Thrashers took in for Hossa (troubled high-end prospect, fringe NHLer, real player) I can’t say I blame them for holding onto Bouwmeester.
the whole dynamic for impending ufa’s has changed in the last couple years as teams are now trading players rights to other teams to give them an exclusive negotiating window before july 1. martin obviously felt he had to try to make the playoffs this year and that any potential return in a trade wasn’t enough to help him do that if he traded bouwmeester. whether the panthers make the playoffs or not, my guess is that at some point before july 1, if martin realizes he can’t sign bouwmeester that we see one of these deals and the panthers can still get a reasonable return for him, assuming he signs.
I thought it was the wrong decision back in February when Florida was in a play-off position because their results didn’t look sustainable to me. Their goaltending was out of this world and they were giving up like 40 shots on net per night. I assumed, therefore, they would falter down the stretch or get killed in the first round if they made the dance anyways (Bouwmeester or no Bouwmeester), meaning the primary goal of the club should have been to get better in the long run.
Try telling your miniscule fanbase in a terrible hockey market that the numbers don’t support making the playoffs when you’re a point out of fifth at the deadline. It’s easy to call it a mistake from your couch, and depending on the return offered, you’re probably not wrong from a pure asset-management perspective, but the reality of the situation — optics with the fanbase and the hockey world at large, trying to make a dent in the Miami sports market, trying (even in vain) to convince Bouwmeester that Florida is a long-term solution for him — isn’t that simple.
The Panthers got unlucky that Carolina and Pittsburgh got that hot at the same time they went in the crapper. On the plus side, if you’re a Panthers fan, at least Montreal’s right there in the crapper with them (OTW in Tampa? Really?), and it’s still perfectly plausible that they can make a move before the end of the season. I’m not sold on them being a .350 team, as they’ve been since the deadline, any more than Kent’s sold on them being a .578 team, as they were before.