15 Responses to Scoring chances for/against: Mar 12: Atl/Edm

1. 

   HBomb

   March 13, 2009 at

   Outchanced on the PP again? How in the heck….

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2. 

   Scott

   March 13, 2009 at

   Not dominant exactly, but another nice night for the line of 12/89/78 and that unit came out with the 5v4 chance again (although with O’Sullivan in place of Gagner), not that they were great there either.

   It’s also good to see the first line going again but I really haven’t been impressed with ALess on the top unit. Even tonight he didn’t seem involved with much of what was being created.

   Struds and Smid looked like they were struggling most of the night and that bears itself out in the chances.

   It would be interesting to take a closer look but my intuition tells me that 3 goals on 16 chances isn’t one of Roli’s finer nights. I don’t like criticizing goalies too much for stylistic reasons, but I think the math isn’t in Roli’s favour on this night.

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3. 

   Dennis

   March 13, 2009 at

   HB: The PP was once again shit except for the 5-on-3 chance; and, as you alluded to, once again giving up SH chances. There’s nothing else to say about it anymore other than they suck.

   Scott: Since the game in Nsh two Tues ago, Roli’s adrift. 6, 4, 1, 4 and now another 4 GA. The guy’s been awesome for us and him and 71 have been our MVP’s but he’s bleeding GA and hopefully three GA in just 16 opps is the darkest before the dawn. How much of that comes from overuse, I’m not sure.

   The 78 line – he does take the draws after all;) – were 0/4 apiece after the first frame but then wasn’t nailed again for another chance against. So, we’ve got the 78-89 together since last Tues in Nsh and it looks to have a chance for some sustain.

   The goal they scored at EV, I was begging 78 to beat the D into the left corner and retrieve the puck and I’ll be damned if he did. All of a sudden the guy’s up for the battle and he’s grinding a little bit more and the passing and vision have always been there. And of course he’s always been defensively aware as well.

   I was very disappointed that neither 12 nor 78 saw any OT action; I guess MacT was playing for the tie with 34 out there.

   I’m not even joking about that.

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4. 

   Dennis

   March 13, 2009 at

   Scott: One thing I will say about 21 is that he’s finding his way into the slot to log opps. Usually about two a game; and always in just about the same place. So, that shows he knows where to go but how long can we wait for him?

   I liked the 12 forwards we iced last night but I’d much rather just put 27 back with 10-83 and have either 21 or 46 with 18-51 on the 4th line.

   The problem with this is can MacT swallow it after calling 12 a one-shot scorer?;) And, while I love 18 getting the least amount of LW time – otherwise known as being a 4th liner;) – how long can the Oilers really sell him on it? It was easy to do last night because he’s coming back from injury. But when that excuse wears thin, where do we go from there?

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5. 

   coach pb

   March 13, 2009 at

   Dennis, that chance in the 1st for Brodziak – which one was that? Was that the shot from the point where the the follow was thrown sideways through the crease?

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6. 

   Dennis

   March 13, 2009 at

   Coach: I’m not really sure but there’s an easy way to figure it out.

   Here’s how I log the chances.

   I sit back with a spiral notebook with a page measured into three columns – one for each period. When I see what I perceive to be a scoring opp, I’ll quickly write down the time. Now, if I see a chance that I’m not sure of – for instance, I don’t count it as an opp if the shot’s somehow blocked – then I’ll put a queston mark next to the time and then I’ll check the play-by-play feature in the intermission to see if the shot was indeed impeded.

   I’m thinking the chance by 51 was a tip but I’m not sure. But if you went and looked at the PBP option, you’d see exactly what I did.

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7. 

   Scott

   March 13, 2009 at

   Yeah Dennis, Coach had seen him play some in Buffalo some and mentioned something along the lines of “like Carter” which I took to mean “finds spots and waits.” That seems to be his game. The guy I’d like to see him with is 78 since he’s always thinking pass first, but putting him on RW with 51 and 18 could work out as well since it’s not advisable to break up the 12-78-89 line right now.

   It wouldn’t surprise me if MacT was hoping for the SO. That’s supposed to be one of 21′s elite skills so it would give the guy a chance to shine and the team a chance to win.

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8. 

   Pat Mc

   March 13, 2009 at

   MacT did sound like he was trying to get to the shootout last night in his postgame comments.

   So weird. Its a frigging crapshoot. Even Kotalik is .500 and he’s one of the best. Still misses half of the time.

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9. 

   PDO

   March 13, 2009 at

   Apparently MacT didn’t tell 13 we were trying to get a shootout. That giveaway was ridiculously bad…

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10. 

    Oilman

    March 13, 2009 at

    Dennis Said “I guess MacT was playing for the tie with 34 out there.

    I’m not even joking about that.”

    MacT said “We can’t even get them to the shootout. We’ve got really strong shooters and I would have liked our chances in the shootout.”

    Sounds about right

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11. 

    Vic Ferrari

    March 13, 2009 at

    Yeah, it’s a consistntly mediocre team, Dennis. Your numbers have shown that right through the year. A few glimmers in late October but a flat line besides.

    I suspect that if we considered rest, home and away, and the corsi # of the opponent … the scoring chance numbers would be stunningly flat.

    A shame that Penner can’t seem to cut it in the power-vs-power role. That would really help the way the rest of the lineup rolled out. MacT has kept trying it, that PHX game and the one after it (can’t remember the opp) must’ve been the last straws. Plays were going to Justin to die, and that shit just can’t happen against players who aren’t likely to let you have the puck back for the rest of the shift, especially when that eats up Horcoff and Hemsky’s ice time in the wrong end of the rink. Maybe it’s time we all just accepted that Penner is as good as he’s going to get, and move on.

    The Oilers will get better though, I mean it wasn’t that long ago that Getzlaf/Perry were wowing us with their potential in the 05/06 playoffs, this as the Rem Murray/Toby Petersen/Georges Laraque line were soundly outchancing them.

    On the bright side, this is a cap team now. They’ll head in the right direction. Gagner continues to impress. Cogliano and Pouliot look like real players.

    They fell backwards into Visnovsky, but his injury hurts this team a bunch too.

    For me, sensibly they aren’t just going to start outplaying and outchancing fuckers out of the blue here. They’ll continue as they have been, and the streaks are in the hands of the hockey gods and will be expressed in the shooting percentages. If they make the playoffs, the season is a success, I think. We really need some playoff hockey here, too.

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12. 

    Dennis

    March 13, 2009 at

    Vic: True enough. I keep hoping for a nice roll out outchancing but it never really comes.

    We’re young and we need to grow up and we also need to grow up the same year that 10 stays healthy for the whole time and 83 breaks out.

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13. 

    Scott

    March 13, 2009 at

    Come now Dennis, they’ve outchanced at EV two games in a row now. With Colorado twice and St. Louis as our next three we might just be able to put together five in a row.

    Vic: I’m surprised that you don’t like Penner in the PvP role. The guy definitely makes some mistakes but the results are quite good with him out there, which, I suppose is why MacT keeps turning back to him.

    Dennis: When did you start taking the 5v3s out of the PP chances?

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14. 

    Bruce

    March 13, 2009 at

    re: Penner in the PvP role: Among regular Oiler forwards, BehindtheNet.com has Penner tied with Hemsky for third toughest QualComp (+.01), just behind Moreau (+.02) and well behind Horcoff (+.05); all others are -.02 or greater. It ranks him first among forwards in ESGF ON/60 (+2.94) and second in ESGA ON/60 (-2.24). He’s also first in PPGF ON/60.

    TimeonIce.com shows Penner ranks first among Oiler forwards in EV +/- (+11; 2.Hemsky, Horcoff each +10), shots differential (+36; 2.Hemsky +19), Fenwick # (+69; 2.Hemsky +20) and Corsi # (+91; 2.Hemsky +58). He’s a little protected in faceoff location (-24) but ends in the offensive zone even more often than he starts there, for a positive zone shift of +15.

    Those numbers seem pretty darn good to me. What do you Statzis see that I’m missing?

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15. 

    Scott

    March 14, 2009 at

    Regarding Penner, his QC is high but he’s starting in the good end of the rink more often than not so his minutes aren’t as difficult as QC makes them seem. Another point is that whenever Penner makes mistakes or just looks to be flat, the coach has no problem yanking him which might actually be helping his rates. That said, I do think he’s the best option going PvP of the avaialable LW’s and I’d be interested to hear if/why Vic disagrees.

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