• Post-Trade Deadline 2009

    by Tyler Dellow • March 4, 2009 • Uncategorized • 24 Comments

    *The worst job at TSN has to be mixing the combination of amphetamines and hallucinogens that are injected into Pierre McGuire immediately prior to TSN going on air and then fed to him by way of an IV drip throughtout the day. Pierre’s highlights included an assertion that the Oilers’ acquisition of Patrick Sullivan was basically a trade of Erik Cole and Joni Pitkanen for him straight up, a rant about the extent to which Tampa is a disaster that seemed to be as much about kissing Jay Feaster’s ass as anything else and participating in a panel that laughed at the idea that there’s any comparison between Cristobal Huet and Miikka Kiprusoff, in part because of the understanding that now exists between Kiprusoff and Keenan. I can’t stand him.

    *The NHL should examine any future Tampa Bay Lightning/Toronto Maple Leaf dealings very closely. The “trade” in which the Leafs acquired an injured Olaf Kolzig, Jamie Heward – who may well currently be in a different dimension -, a “prospect” who was drafted five years ago, is 23 and can’t stay healthy and a fourth round pick in exchange for Richard Petiot is too bizarre for words.. Mirtle priced this as costing the Leafs about $600K. If you accept that a fourth round pick isn’t worth $600K and that Burke isn’t that dumb, you’re left to wonder what his angle is on this.

    *Tampa is a complete embarassment at this point. Off the top of my head, Radim Vrbata, Kolzig, Mark Recchi and Steve Eminger are already gone from this year’s acquisitions. There is basically nothing there. Easily the most hopeless franchise in the NHL right now.

    *I have no problems with what the Oilers did. They turned Erik Cole into a player who contributes now in Patrick O’Sullivan and got Ales Kotalik for a very small piece of the future. On paper, they’re better than they were at the start of the day. Reasonable expectationms for Cole going forward might be better than they are for Kotalik but Cole’s contribution this year was small enough that Kotalik should be able to cover it.

    *I don’t know how whipped the Calgary media is but if thoe guys have any self-respect, when the day comes that Darryl Sutter gets the axe, there should be a line of guys waiting to stick the shiv in as he leaves town. I can sort of understand how the Edmonton media doesn’t bury Lowe for his mistakes because he treats them with respect. Sutter could preface all of his answers with comments about how the questioner’s mother is a whore and he’d come off about as polite as he does now.

    About Tyler Dellow

    24 Responses to Post-Trade Deadline 2009

    1. Joe
      March 4, 2009 at

      “If you accept that a fourth round pick isn’t worth $600K”

      Why would you accept this assertion? Especially in one of the biggest hockey markets in the world? If the Leafs could buy every single team’s 4th round pick for 600K, I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that they would do it. 600K is chump change to that organization, and there are always gems to be found later in the draft. It’s like a lottery ticket.

    2. lowetide
      March 4, 2009 at

      It’s a weird one. If the Leafs end up flipping picks to get #1 overall this summer from TBay then the league needs to get new ownership for that wacko bunch in Tampa.

    3. tyler
      March 4, 2009 at

      @Joe: The price of a draft pick would be established based on the expected difference between the net value of the play the player gives you less the costs. In order for your assertion that it would make sense for the Leafs to buy 29 4th round picks for $17.4MM, they’d have to be able to say that they expected a simply mammoth return in terms of value. I don’t know how many fourth rounders turn into something from the typical draft – 2 or 3? – but I can’t believe it’s worth $17.4MM.

      Interesting question though; maybe one I’ll take a stab at sussing out.

    4. March 4, 2009 at

      The Tampa deal doesn’t smell right but back in November or so there were assertions that they were out of money.

      Maybe the league is propping up more then one franchise.

      Wouldn’t surprise me.

      McGuire is such an ass.

    5. March 5, 2009 at

      Don’t know if anyone besides Tyler will remember this, but we actually took a stab at the cash value of draft picks once upon a time.

      Had to do with the “conditional picks” that go along with whether a UFA re-signs with the team he’s traded to.

      If a 4th-rd pick is worth anywhere close to $600k to anyone, someone owes Dwayne Roloson (among others) a bunch of money.

    6. mc79hockey
      March 5, 2009 at

      Yeah, I remember that. I recall Vic figuring that a first round pick was worth around $250K or so.

    7. Joe
      March 5, 2009 at

      Mathematically, if you figure out the exact dollar worth of a draft pick, I’m sure its less than 600K. But maybe I’m spoiled as a Wings fan, I’m definitely not seeing whatever draft picks the Wings have missed on, but I know an awful lot of Wings stars over the last 20 years were drafted out of later rounds. If you feel confident in your scouting staff, and you have infinite money (like Detroit used to, or like Toronto pretty much does now), I don’t see why you wouldn’t pay 600K for the pick.

      As for a 1st rounder being worth 250K, that’s patently ridiculous. If you could buy them that cheap, there is absolutely no doubt that someone would make a significant investment in buying out the first round for a year or two and then be set for years to come. Considering the quality of player involved, and the number of successful picks, a 1st has got to be worth a lot more than 250K.

    8. March 5, 2009 at

      Yeah, McGuire was pretty bad, and Tampa Bay is an embarrasment to the league. Bob McKenzie asked yesterday if they were going to sneak into revenue sharing by dumping all that payroll, and I suspect (rather strongly) that he’s on the right track.

      As for the 4th round pick, I think Burke did a good job to pick it up. I’ll talk more about this elsewhere, but Brian Burke had a good day IMO, and did a lot to repair his reputation in my eyes. The real question I have is why Martin Gerber is worth anything to the franchise at all.

      Lastly, I very much doubt Kotalik adds anything at evens.

    9. March 5, 2009 at

      Here is our old discussion of the cash value of a 3rd round pick (range: $100-250k).

      Here is why it came up, an issue that still fascinates me. Most of the links in it are old/dead, but I think you can get the gist of it.

    10. mclea
      March 5, 2009 at

      Any value you put on a draft pick assumes that there is some sort of constrained resource, be it cash or cap space.

      Since neither of these restraints are relevant to the Leafs, suggesting that they “overpaid” for the draft pick doesn’t follow logically. $600K is nothing to the Leafs, not in terms of cap space or actually cash, so the value of the pick to Leafs could reasonably argued to be far more than it would be for most teams.

      In other words, the real cost of $600k, and the expected return that you have to earn on that money, is almost entirely dependent on your cap situation and your cash situation. If you have both in spades, then $600K isn’t $600K anymore, if you follow me.

    11. March 5, 2009 at

      It’s definitely fair and correct to say that X draft pick is worth more (“costs less”?) to the Leafs than most other teams.

      But at the very least, I think you’d have to consider the relevance of whether that same meaningless cash and cap space could have returned more from someone else. Which it might easily have. Or which — and I’ll stop short of making any direct accusations here — it might yet.

      I’m with Tyler — “The NHL should examine any future Tampa Bay Lightning/Toronto Maple Leaf dealings very closely.”

    12. March 5, 2009 at

      Just thinking back to the original premise (i.e. that the trade was 600K for a 4th round pick) isn’t it fair to say that Rogers > Petiot?

      In other words, there’s probably some value to that upgrade too.

    13. mclea
      March 5, 2009 at

      But at the very least, I think you’d have to consider the relevance of whether that same meaningless cash and cap space could have returned more from someone else.

      Ya, this is a better way to think about, rather than trying to assign a nominal value to each draft pick.

    14. March 5, 2009 at

      Just thinking back to the original premise (i.e. that the trade was 600K for a 4th round pick) isn’t it fair to say that Rogers > Petiot?

      Not really. Rogers’s has had some very serious injury problems and even spent time in the ECHL. He’s about minus-20 this year and hurt again.

      He had more upside when he was drafted, but now? Not really.

    15. Jay
      March 5, 2009 at

      The worst job at TSN has to be mixing the combination of amphetamines and hallucinogens that are injected into Pierre McGuire immediately prior to TSN going on air and then fed to him by way of an IV drip throughtout the day.

      I’ve never heard Pierre McGuire described better. Gold.

    16. March 5, 2009 at

      On Sportsnet last night they said the TOR/TBL trade was made to get TBL onto the right side of the cutoff for revenue sharing. I don’t remember the details but they emphatically stated it was a “million dollar day” for Tampa.

    17. tyler
      March 5, 2009 at

      @Jim: That may well be true but what nobody has really explained is why that motivates the Leafs to take a financial bath.

    18. March 5, 2009 at

      Here’s my theory.

      And I think the cash is closer to $430k. Kolzig has some bonuses in there that complicate it.

    19. March 5, 2009 at

      It seems to me that the true value of draft pick is the product of several factors.

      1) The cap saving (and real $$ saving for some teams) that result from a young player being underpaid on his 1st and 2nd contract.

      2) The advantage of having exclusive rights to extend a player’s contract before he hits the UFA market. (something GMs have traded draft picks for in the past.)

      3) The value of any “home team” discount that z re-signing player gives during his UFA years that is below market value. (i.e Crosby contract, Zetterberg contract, etc.)

      Some of these advantages can result in value that is worth millions to a NHL team in cap hit savings and actual dollar savings.

      Now you’d have to weight this by the probability that an average pick will turn into a star player. Without attempting any math it still seems like a 1st rounder is worth more than $250,000.

    20. Jonathan
      March 6, 2009 at

      The value of the draft pick depends on who holds it.
      In other words it is significantly more valuable in the hands of the New Jersey Devils and the Detroit Red Wings than the Vancouver Canucks.

      In the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose current management does not have a great track record of finding good talent at any point in the draft, it is nothing more than a lottery ticket.

    21. March 6, 2009 at

      re: picks more valuable to certain organizations.

      I’d dissent slightly from that. Detroit has been both good and lucky. If they had any idea Zetterberg of Datsyuk were super stars they most certainly wouldn’t have waited that long to draft either of them. What team says to themselves “we’ve spotted a potential league MVP, but let’s wait until the 8th round to draft him.” Nobody does. They took a chance on a prospect and he maxed out his ceiling on the developmental curve. Waiting to draft Zetterberg that late means even the Wings organization mis-evaluated his potential relative to the guys they took in rounds 1-5. When a team “finds” a gem late there is probably a bigger “luck” component there.

      For my money the best scouting teams are ones that most regularly find players with their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. Consistent success at the top of the draft means you are raking your own lists correctly. Success in the late rounds means you rolled the dice on some talent gambles and won.

    22. Jonathan
      March 6, 2009 at

      No doubt the Wings examples have a significant element of luck.

      However, teams like the Devils and Wings have a track record of identifying what kind of players they want, how that player will be brought along in the minors if necessary and when they really like someone they think they can get (whether it be draft or free agency) at the right price they don’t hesitate (Devils trading up for Parise at the draft in the mid-20′s or thereabouts comes to mind).

      A team with a plan rather than hope holding a 4th round pick has a much better chance of turning a 4th rounder into an NHL player.

    23. mc79hockey
      March 6, 2009 at

      (Devils trading up for Parise at the draft in the mid-20’s or thereabouts comes to mind)

      Bit of a sore point around here.

    24. Jonathan
      March 6, 2009 at

      I did a quick check to see how close I was. 17th pick. He was a little earlier than I thought — which makes sense because I am not watching the draft too closely for too long.

      Forgot who dealt the pick…….wrong forum obviously.

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