• Scoring chances — forwards at even strength

    by Bruce • January 25, 2009 • Uncategorized • 3 Comments

     [Part 3 of 4]

       Here’s a summary of all scoring chances by forwards so far in 2008-09:

    Player ES TOI SCF SCA F/60 A/60 -/60
    10 600.5 195 169 19.5 16.9 +2.6
    26 550.8 158 156 17.2 17.0 +0.2
    18 543.7 135 193 14.9 21.3 -6.4
    89 520.4 159 147 18.3 16.9 +1.4
    13 513.9 148 144 17.3 16.8 +0.5
    27 504.8 149 140 17.7 16.6 +1.1
    83 465.3 143 124 18.4 16.0 +2.5
    78 417.5 114 110 16.4 15.8 +0.6
    12 404.6 118 119 17.5 17.6 -0.1
    51 395.4 93 119 14.1 18.1 -3.9
    85 208.7 42 66 12.1 19.0 -6.9
    34 196.9 44 66 13.4 20.1 -6.7
    46 154.3 30 38 11.7 14.8 -3.1
    67 103.7 27 35 15.6 20.3 -4.6
    43 70.3 20 15 17.1 12.8 +4.3
    33 45.0 6 10 8.0 13.3 -5.3
    21 43.5 19 13 26.2 17.9 +8.3
    88 43.0 10 15 14.0 20.9 -7.0
    28 7.4 2 2 16.2 16.2 0.0
    62 4.4 1 0 13.6 0.0 +13.6
    Team 5794.1 1613 1681 16.7 17.4 -0.7

       Shawn Horcoff leads the parade in even-strength minutes, and has backed it up by leading the regulars in gross scoring chances, SC/60, and positive differential per 60 at +2.6, just ahead of Ales Hemsky. Among forwards with 100+ minutes, Zack Stortini leads the way with fewest chances allowed per 60 as well as fewest chances for, the ultimate low event player. (QualComp and QualTeam are surely a factor here.)   

       The real head scratcher is Ethan Moreau, who is getting huge minutes while posting The Worst rate of scoring chances Against on the entire club, and the lowest number of chances For among anybody in the top nine forwards. As for differential, seven of those top 9 have a positive number, Nilsson is -0.1, and then there’s Moreau way the hell down at -6.4. (As I write this Don Cherry is waxing ecstatic about Moreau, “[his] kind of guy”) Ethan has his uses, but his record by this and other metrics is downright terrible.

       Turning our attention to the more recent period between Dec 5-Jan 20:

    Player ES TOI SCF SCA F/60 A/60 -/60
    10 247.7 89 81 21.6 19.6 +1.9
    89 228.1 77 71 20.3 18.7 +1.6
    26 225.8 92 72 24.4 19.1 +5.3
    13 222.2 68 75 18.4 20.3 -1.9
    18 215.0 65 85 18.1 23.7 -5.6
    27 209.2 66 63 18.9 18.1 +0.9
    51 176.2 51 61 17.4 20.8 -3.4
    78 163.9 53 55 19.4 20.1 -0.7
    85 139.2 32 53 13.8 22.8 -9.1
    12 139.0 51 47 22.0 20.3 +1.7
    83 109.1 40 28 22.0 15.4 +6.6
    67 95.0 27 32 17.1 20.2 -3.2
    46 72.9 20 17 16.5 14.0 +2.5
    43 70.3 20 15 17.1 12.8 +4.3
    21 43.5 19 13 26.2 17.9 +8.3
    33 10.8 1 4 5.6 22.2 -16.7
    88 9.9 2 2 12.1 12.1 0.0
    62 4.4 1 0 13.6 0.0 +13.6
    Team 2382.2 770 778 19.4 19.6 -0.2

       The improved play of Erik Cole leaps off the page here. Cole was a net -18 in EV SC in the first segment, and +20 this time around. Horcoff and Dustin Penner continued to generate positive results, although it would be interesting to see the breakdown with and without Hemsky. Ales himself missed a ton of ice time in this segment but did well with what he had.  

       Among the bit players the puzzle is Potulny, who posted outstanding numbers in his brief time here, not only in scoring chances but on the scoreboard (+4/-1). Schremp posted similar boxcar numbers in his own four-game trial, but the scoring chance metric exposes him as having the biggest negative rate on the team year to date, whereas Potulny has the biggest positive. He really seemed to click with Gagner and Cole.

       Liam Reddox meanwhile, seemingly bombed his big chance playing with Horcoff and Penner, posting the lowest rate of chances For among any forward with 60+ minutes and the second worst record of chances Against (better than only the consistently-brutal Moreau).

       The other big surprise of this segment was Jason Strudwick posting a +20/-15 mark up front, after being a brutal +49/-77 on the blueline. Expressed as a ratio of SCF:SCA, Strudwick’s rate has more than doubled (!) from 0.64  to 1.33. He and Stortini posted very similar totals on the plus side of the ledger, while their centre Brodziak clearly struggled when lining up with other alternatives.  

      

    3 Responses to Scoring chances — forwards at even strength

    1. Dennis
      January 26, 2009 at

      The thing I noticed while logging the games and taking the first look at the numbers was how 18 pulled down the SC numbers of 78.

      That line was on for some GA in consecutive games and it was well-earned by my eye.

    2. Mr DeBakey
      January 26, 2009 at

      I must say I’m getting very tired of the constant put-downs of Our Captain, Ethan Moreau.

      Do you not realize the man is a physical, inspirational leader, who only takes easy-to-kill penalties in the offensive zone?

      Also, he is a very snappy dresser.

      Please amend your numbers accordingly.
      Thank-you

    3. stratedge
      January 26, 2009 at

      The other big surprise of this segment was Jason Strudwick posting a +20/-15 mark up front, after being a brutal +49/-77 on the blueline.

      Is it a big surprise?

      I have a theory about this that at one end of the ice the forwards have most of the control over scoring chances for, and the defense + center have control over scoring chances against. So I think these numbers can be taken a step further if you could do a sort of table of forward lines and defensive pairings, and then score the SC +/- for each.

      I think what you might find is that your forwards net SC will increase with Souray + Vis on the back end and drop way down with Staios + Smid/Strudwick on defense. And the reason Strudwick’s numbers would jump when he’s a forward is because he’s then able to hit the ice without having Staios with him all the time.

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