I’m quite enjoying the game threads at Lowetide’s site. They’ve gotten relatively sizeable and they don’t have the moron quotient that plagues the game threads at some of your other hockey related sites. Plus, they are frequently funny to the point that they induce actual laughter. There was a comment there the other day from a fellow posting under the name of Phil that caught my eye and I thought warranted something further over here:

After they lose tonight, the Oilers will have 30 points in 30 games - that’s 3 points ahead of last year. The fan in me wants to think that there’s still hope for better days, but the realist in me looks at these 30 games (and throw in all 7 preseason games) and sees a team that either doesn’t have the talent to be competitive, doesn’t have the coaching to make them competitive, or both.

This team is (approximately) a million times better than the disastrous squad that the Oilers iced for the first 30 last year. As Phil notes, at 14-14-2, the Oilers were only three points ahead of last year’s 13-16-1 record through 30 games. It’s the underlying numbers that really tell the story though and should give us hope that they’re good enough that, with the benefit of a run of some sort, they might be able to slide into the playoffs. Whereupon they’ll promptly be slaughtered in five, but still: ’tis better to have rioted on Whyte Avenue once in the springtime and lost, than to never have rioted at all.

Through their first thirty at evens last year, the Oil were getting absolutely crushed in terms of shots by a margin of 698-582. This year, they’re much closer to par, with the Oilers having been outshot 701-645. They’ve probably actually improved by more than the numbers suggest - we know that teams do better in terms of ES SF/SA at home than they do on the road. The Oilers played 16 of their first 30 at home last year, as opposed to 11 of their first 30 at home this year. When you look at the home road splits, you see that their ratio of SF/SA at home last year was .96; this year it’s 1.01. Their ratio of SF/SA on the road last year through their first thirty games was .70; this year it’s .87. There is considerable evidence of improvement, at home and particularly on the road, in terms of getting pucks at the net at even strength.

As you’d expect, it’s showing up in their ES GF and GA as well. Through 30 games last year, they were getting outscored 63-50. This year, they’re outscoring the opposition 51-50 at evens. The percentages are slightly more favourable this year - they had an 8.9% ES shooting percentage through 30 last year against a 7.9% ES shooting percentage this year but the ES save percentage is up by .014 this year, from .915 to .929. I suspect that they’re not yet a plus ES team on merit but they’re a heck of a lot closer to being one now than they were last year. The improvement in terms of ES goal differential, from -7 to +1, is being driven mostly by the improved shot spread. I figure it’s worth about 5 of the 8 goal differential, with the rest coming from the changes in the percentages. That’s a heck of a change just on the outshooting - I’ve always figured that an extra five or six goal differential will buy you a win in the standings.

What about MacT’s bete noir, the PP? It’s well ahead of last year too. Last year’s power play was, as we’re all aware, a nightmare early on in the season. Through thirty games, the Oilers were roaring along at a 39.5 PPS/60 clip (horrible), scoring 4.0 PPG/60 (horrible) on 10.0% shooting (do I need to say it?). This year’s PP, through thirty games, is taking 43.0 PPS/60 (slightly less horrible), scoring 7.5 PPG/60 (respectable) and shooting 17.7% (maybe a bit higher than sustainable, but we’ve now seen about 70 games of the Oilers shooting around 18% on the PP; I’d believe that that’s too high for the long run but they seem to be a better than average team in terms of finishing on the PP, which makes sense because Souray seems to put it in the 1 time out of 10 that he hits the net and the other play is that cross-ice one to Horcoff that he generally puts in if he gets good wood on it). All things being considered though, even if you have concerns about whether the PP is going to keep rolling, I don’t know that you can tag the PP with the problems of this season.

How about the PK? Well, there’s the trouble. The Oilers have been a pretty good PK team since the lockout. They’ve been 8th, 8th and 5th since the lockout in terms of killing penalties. This year, they’re 29th and a long way from anything respectable. I can’t recall another MacT Oiler team that’s been this bad. MacT has had some teams with some bad PK units - the 2003-04 Oilers finished 27th on the PP - but nothing this bad. At least the 03-04 Oilers were pretty tightly bunched - although they finished 27th on the PP, the difference.

Last year, they were giving up 47.0 PPS/60 thorugh 30 (not bad), with an .880 save percentage (very good) and allowing 5.6 PPG/60 (very good). This was the only aspect of their game that was in the least bit good. This year though, it’s completely reversed - every aspect of the PK has been absolutely horrible. As I assume most people know, .865ish is about average for the PK in terms of save percentage. The Oilers put up an .850 through 30 games. I can’t bring myself to get that worked up about that and assume that, with time, it will take care of itself. It’s certainly been part of the problem to date; I just don’t quite know that it’s worth worrying about the save percentage moving forward.

The SA is a different story. The Oilers gave up 60.5 PPS/60 through their first 30 games. This is more than a little strange because the Oilers haven’t been anywhere near this bad in the four years for which we have numbers - they’ve reached from spectacular to averageish but never been bad, let alone Chernobylesque, like they are this season. We have numbers going back to 2003-04, so I’ve assembled them in a chart, just to give a sense of the scale and a sense of how bad 60.5 PPSA/60 is:

PPS

As you can see, the usual lower limit of bad has been about 55 PPS/60. Only three teams in the past four years have posted numbers that are significantly worse than that limit. I haven’t got this year’s numbers for the league as a whole but I’ve eyeballed Desjardins’ numbers for this year and it looks like, notwithstanding the rule changes, anything worse than 55.0 PPS/60 is still terribly bad.

What are the causes of all this? Well, there would seem to be a couple of options that could be pursued. Dennis has been on about the lack of down-ice pressure and the bizarre rotation of PK personnel employed by MacT. The Oilers lost Jarret Stoll and Marty Reasoner over the course of the summer. The new rule about the first faceoff on the PK being in the shorthanded team’s zone would seem to hurt everyone equally on the surface but maybe there’s a disproportionate impact on the Oilers, as a result of the fact that they were accustomed to penalty skills starting in the offensive zone after Ethan Moreau slashed someone 200 feet from the Oilers net. Longtim HF poster dawgbone, who has his own blog now, has some ideas worth reading as well. I’ll confess that I don’t know exactly what the problem might be, and I don’t have particularly strong opinions one way or the other about what it might be, but more than anything else, this is something that they’re going to have to fix.

One thing that strikes me though is that the trend entering this season seemed to be going the wrong way. I’ve seen some suggestion that Kelly Buchberger might be at fault for all of this. I don’t really know what, if any, Bucky’s responsibilities are but, given that the PK has been trending the wrong way for two years now, I’d be very hesitant to cast blame in his direction for this. At the very least, I tend to think that there are other causes at work. This definitely needs a post of its own - at the very least, I can see personnel and blocked/missed shots being interesting to look at.

Going back to the big picture, as it turns out, the Oilers are somewhat ahead this year - looking strictly at GF and GA, they were outscored 86-67 through 30 last year; this year through thirty they were being outscored 90-77. Last year’s schedule started out a lot more favourably in terms of the home road split too - 16 games at home to 12 this year. You can, I think, argue that there’s been some improvement there. They’re being undone by something different this year, something that, to me at least, seems more readily fixable.

The volume of SO points also makes last year a little bit difficult to use as a yardstick for this year’s performance. I wrote a post last year at about this time dealing with the shootout volume, although the Oilers were a little further through their schedule, having played 34 games. At that time, they were 6-15-1 in games that ended in regulation and 11-1 in games that went to a shootout or OT, including 10-1 in the shootout. I hate to say I told you so, but they just were not as good as their record suggested. They’re paying for it this year, with real improvement not being as evident as it might otherwise be.

None of this is to say that this current team is doomed. MacT et al. have demonstrated in the past that they can ice a good PK and I have some faith that they’ll figure out some sort of a solution. I think that there’s a good to strong case to be made that it’s the best Oilers team we’ve seen since the team that went to the Finals. I don’t think that they’re a realistic contender for the division title at this stage in the development of the current edition but, with some breaks, the playoffs are within reach.

They’re probably still not quite there on merit but, unless you truly believe that playing 8 SO games in the first 30 of last season, and going 7-1, was a reflection of some sort of skill that the team has lost, there’s been real improvement in Edmonton when the first 30 games from last year are compared with the first 30 games from this year. The general lack of gruntlement is probably due to a large portion of the fanbase having bought into last year’s results and mentally adding on a year of improvement. The improvement is, I think, there, but the foundation wasn’t nearly as far along as it appeared from a glance at the standings.

* * *

A related aside - there was a great quote from Captain Stick Penalty in the Offensive Zone himself in a recent Robert Tychkowski article:

Moreau compares this team to the one that was so frustratingly below average for most of 2005-06, before pulling it together late and embarking on the Stanley Cup final run.

“We were in a similar position to what we’re in now,” he said.

“We have good players, we have some depth at pretty much every position. We still have things to figure out, we’re still experimenting with lines and our special teams have to get better, but you don’t really think about (a big trade) when you have the pieces.”

Sometimes Moreau says some insightful stuff, sometimes he says stuff (”Stortini is a player” or something like that in 2007) that makes me wonder if he’s watching the same game I am. The way it’s written makes me wonder about how this comment came about, ie. whether there’s a writer who has a pet theory that this Oilers team resembles the 2005-06 Oilers and Moreau was just agreeing for the sake of giving the guy his angle and making the interview stop but it’s a bizarre idea. Here’s the numbers for the first 30 games in the past five seasons for the Oilers. I’m not sure that the empty netters are screened out of the 2003-04 numbers - someone else built that database - but I think that you get the idea:

PPS1

It’s interesting how the results in every area of the game have ranged from awesome to terrible. I don’t really buy into the argument that the coach has been tuned out and, if he has, you’d think that he’d be tuned out in all areas of the game, not just (for example) on the PK. Strange.

Worth noting: the Oilers played 16 of their first 30 at home in 2003-04, 2006-07 and 2007-08. In 2005-06 and this year, they played 12 of their first 30 at home. I think I’ve demonstrated that that will have some effect on your ES numbers - 05-06 and this season probably suggest stronger teams than the raw numbers indicate.

I’m not really feeling the comparison between the 05-06 Oilers and the current edition. The current edition might have the better PP but, other than that, the two teams don’t look particularly comparable to me. The 2005-06 team were rockstars on the PK - the current team not so much. The comparison after 30 flatters this bunch too, because as you can tell from above, the Oilers went on a ridiculous PK run in terms of shot prevention shortly thereafter. Although this team is slightly ahead of the 05-06 team in terms of GD at ES, the 2005-06 team was spending more time in the right end of the ice. In short, the problems of the 2005-06 Oilers seemed a hell of a lot more fixable in the short term than do the problems of this current team. This team isn’t necessarily a bad one but that team was pretty good.