• Scoring chances for/against: Dec 6th: Edm at SJ

    by Dennis • December 11, 2008 • Uncategorized • 21 Comments

    1st period

    15:30 SJ 67-85-43-5-24

    14:44 SJ 10-27-83-37-71

    14:31 SJ 10-27-83-37-71

    14:17 SJ 10-27-83-37-71

    11:32 SJ 10-27-83-37-77

    11:10 Edm Goal 10-27-83-44-77

    7:19 SJ 78-88-85-44-77

    7:15 SJ 78-88-85-44-77

    5:25 SJ 51-18-26-44-77

    3:04 SJ 13-67-88-5-24

    1:22 PP SJ 10-85-24-44

    X :05 Goal PP SJ X

    Summ: 10-1 SJ; 9-1 EV; 1-0 ST

    2nd period

    14:17 PP SJ 18-85-44-77

    12:03 SJ 51-18-26-44-77

    11:59 Goal SJ 51-18-26-44-77

    8:48 SJ 51-18-26-37-71

    8:19 SJ 10-83-18-37-71

    5:24 PP Edm 10-83-18-37-71

    2:28 Edm 10-27-83-44-77

    2:11 PP Goal 10-27-83-88-44-77

    1:20 SH SJ 13-78-88-37-71

    :43 PP Edm 10-27-83-44-77

    Summ: 6-4 SJ; 4-1 SJ ST; 3-2 Edm

    3rd:

    19:35 Ed, 10-27-83-44-77

    14:40 SJ 51-18-26-44-77

    11:46 SJ 13-78-88-37-71

    11:14 SJ 13-78-88-37-71

    9:58 SJ 67-85-43-44-77

    9:28 SJ 10-27-83-37-71

    5:50 SJ 51-18-26-5-24

    Summ: 6-1 SJ; all at EV

    OT:

    3:53 Ed, 51-27-37-71

    2:20 PP Goal EDm 10-51-37-77

    Summ: 2-0 Edm; 1-0 ST; 1-0 PP

    Overall: 22-8 SJ; 19-4 ST; 4-3 Edm ST

    Individual:

    10: 3/6; 4; -1

    27: 4/6; 2

    83: 3/6; 3

    13: -3; -1

    78: -4; -1

    88: -5; 1/1

    51 : 1/6; 1

    18: -6; 1; -1

    26: -6

    43: -2

    85: -2;   ;  -1

    67: -3

    QDC: A brutal night for the New Kids plus the new checking line and it was close-your-eyes-time when 10′s line wasn’t on the ice.

    Defense:

    44: 3/7; 2; -2

    77: 38; 3

    71: 1/8; 1/1

    37: 1/9; 2/1

    5: -3

    24: -3;    ; -1

    QDC: Another promising night for the 5/24 duo; being on the ice for basically three chances against wasn’t bad considering how their peers were fairing.

    21 Responses to Scoring chances for/against: Dec 6th: Edm at SJ

    1. December 11, 2008 at

      Tough game but they made them count.

      I suspect SJ plays a lot of games that end up tilted like that.

      I would be really interested to see a retrospective look, eh Dennis? I would guess there would have been plenty games like this by the same point last year.

      I suspect they have come a long way generally although Saturday proves they still have a way to go yet.

    2. December 11, 2008 at

      Thanks again, Dennis. I will try to do the per TOI metric tomorrow, which will exclude tonight’s game and the STL game.

      I assume “34″ listed above should be “43″. Scott, take note.

      Another promising night for the 5/24 duo; being on the ice for basically three chances against wasn’t bad considering how their peers were fairing.

      5/24 are doing one hell of a lot better than 24/43 were doing. I’ve taken a pretty broad-based statistical view of our third pairing, and the results are not pretty for Steady Steve and Stationary Struds.

    3. December 11, 2008 at

      Bruce: I made that change and thanks for the heads-up!

      I”m cool with a 5/24 third pairing tandem and I don’t think they’re gonna be a problem. Though with all the home dates now and them being the decided third pairing they are going to have to come up on the plus side from now on considering their opp.

    4. December 12, 2008 at

      Looks like I made the right choice with going to that party and relying on you to email me the scores.

    5. macndub
      December 12, 2008 at

      Canada’s most adored team, the Toronto Maple Leafs, has a problem.

      Time to drink.

      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122904410177500415.html

    6. David Staples
      December 13, 2008 at

      Dennis
      Good stuff, great continuing effort on this stat.

      Anyone post an up-to-date plus/minus for the Oilers on scoring chances, with all the totals?

      Bruce mentions something there.

      I’ve been waiting to see such a thing, and the season is far enough along that such a plus/minus has some utility.

    7. December 13, 2008 at

      Yeah, David, I’m working on it. So far I’ve got the defencemen all done and am partway through the forwards. Am making the following adjustments:

      Today’s TOI from NHL.com minus Dec 11 vs FLA minus Nov 29 vs STL
      Last updated totals of scoring chances posted by Scott (as of Dec 3) plus Dec 5 vs L.A plus Dec. 6 vs S.J
      (Didn’t doublecheck anything so errors are certainly possible)

      I will list by each situation in order of TOI:

      Even Strength
      # * ES TOI * SCF * SCA * F/60 * A/60 * +-/60
      ——————————————–
      71 * 465.4 * 130 * 110 * 16.8 * 14.2 * +2.6
      77 * 405.4 * 109 * 120 * 16.1 * 17.8 * -1.6
      44 * 390.2 * 105 * 104 * 16.1 * 16.0 * +0.1
      37 * 352.7 ** 96 ** 92 * 16.3 * 15.7 * +0.7
      24 * 325.9 ** 64 ** 87 * 11.8 * 16.0 * -4.2
      43 * 259.0 ** 49 ** 77 * 11.4 * 17.8 * -6.5
      5 ** 141.0 ** 28 ** 34 * 11.9 * 14.5 * -2.6
      49 ** 10.1 *** 4 *** 0 * 23.8 ** 0.0 * +23.8
      ——————————————–
      Tot.2349.7 * 585 * 624 * 14.9 * 15.9 * -1.0

      Visnovsky has earned his ice time by recording the best differential on SC on both gross and per 60 basis. Grebs and Souray are holding their head above water, while Gilbert is a mild negative and, not surprisingly, Staios and esp. Strudwick are getting killed. Struds has both the least opportunitieds generated per 60 and the most allowed (tied with Gilbert).

      Powerplay
      # * PP TOI * SCF * SCA * F/60 * A/60 * +-/60
      ——————————————–
      71 * 119.2 ** 56 ** 10 * 28.2 ** 5.0 * +23.2
      44 * 116.0 ** 61 *** 6 * 31.6 ** 3.1 * +28.4
      77 ** 65.7 ** 30 *** 5 * 27.4 ** 4.6 * +22.8
      37 ** 45.5 ** 18 *** 5 * 23.7 ** 6.6 * +17.1
      24 *** 3.3 *** 1 *** 0 * 18.2 ** 0.0 * +18.2
      5 **** 0.5
      43 *** 0.4
      49 *** 0.0
      ——————————————–
      Tot. 350.6 * 166 ** 26 * 28.4 ** 4.4 * +24.0

      Souray is the bomb here, creating by far the most opportunities while allowing the fewest among the big 4. He’s more than +5 chances per 60 ahead of the others.

      Shorthanded
      # * SH TOI * SCF * SCA * F/60 * A/60 * +-/60
      ——————————————–
      44 ** 94.3 *** 6 ** 52 ** 3.8 * 33.1 * -29.3
      24 ** 91.5 *** 2 ** 77 ** 1.3 * 50.5 * -49.2
      77 ** 68.9 *** 3 ** 47 ** 2.6 * 40.9 * -38.3
      43 ** 51.2 *** 4 ** 37 ** 4.7 * 43.4 * -38.7
      37 ** 33.3 *** 0 ** 19 ** 0.0 * 34.2 * -34.2
      71 ** 20.0 *** 2 ** 11 ** 6.0 * 33.0 * -27.0
      5 **** 6.6 *** 0 *** 2 ** 0.0 * 18.2 * -18.2
      49 *** 1.3 *** 0 *** 1 ** 0.0 * 46.2 * -46.2
      ——————————————–
      Tot. 367.1 ** 17 * 246 ** 2.8 * 40.2 * -37.4

      Can anybody explain why Steve Staios is 2nd, almost 1st on the club in SH TOI? He is getting destroyed out there, 50 (fifty) scoring chances allowed per hour. His partner Strudwick is no hell either, nor is Gilbert. Souray is far and away the best of the big minute guys, but the above suggests that Grebs and esp. Visnovsky deserve a longer look on the PK. I’d give ‘em some of Steady Steve’s minutes in a heartbeat.

      Looking at the bigger picture, at evens the club is getting slightly outchanced, a minor concern. More significantly the gulf between scoring chances generated on the PP (+24.0 per hour) compared to those allowed on the PK (-37.4) is alarming to say the least. Unfortunately we don’t have data from other teams to calibrate those against, but it would seem obvious that the rate the PK bleeds chances is way above the norm. Dennis, you sure you’re counting special teams chances the same both ways, or does that tightening in your sphincter every time 18 goes off for another bonehead penalty cause your trigger finger to itch? :)

      Very interesting stuff … I’ll work on the forwards tomorrow, and will present a similar format unless somebody has better ideas.

    8. December 13, 2008 at

      Bruce: Thanks for doing this, bud. Hopefully you can do it again once we click off another ~ 25 games or so and we’ll see if anything’s changed.

      Some thoughts:

      - With a heavy road slate it makes sense that the third pairing could take a beating because the opposing coach has last change and it’s his right to go after the third pairing. After awhile you’d think that MacT would catch on and not it appears he has.

      - I imagine 71 isn’t seeing PK time because macT doesn’t want to burn him out considering how he plans to ride him on PP And EV. But now his PPTOI’s been cut so why not give him a PK push? The thing with 24 is he’s a vet and if he’s only a 3rd pairing guy at EV and he’s not on the PP well how does it look to play a guy ~2.5 mill to be a third pairing guy who doesn’t play on ST? That’s not to say that should factor into his role but I have a feeling that it does.

      - The Oilers have at times have given up a staggering amount of chances while SH. On the other hand I can’t remember very many occasions where the Oilers PP unit has multi-chanced on a singular opp. It seems like they only need one good chance and they either score early in the opp or they spend all the time fucking around looking for 44.

    9. mc79hockey
      December 13, 2008 at

      Great stuff Bruce. I assume that you’re doing this in Excel. If you want a login so that you can just jpeg the graphs and post them to save the hassle of this, let me know and I’ll set you up.

    10. December 13, 2008 at

      So far I’ve just got even strength reconciled for forwards. The good news is that the total scoring opps per hour is within 0.1 of the defencemen, both for and against.

      Even Strength
      # * ES TOI * SCF * SCA * F/60 * A/60 * +-/60
      ——————————————–
      83 * 356.2 * 103 ** 96 * 17.3 * 16.2 ** +1.2
      10 * 352.8 * 106 ** 88 * 18.0 * 15.0 ** +3.1
      18 * 328.7 ** 70 * 108 * 12.8 * 19.7 ** -6.9
      26 * 325.0 ** 66 ** 84 * 12.2 * 15.5 ** -3.3
      27 * 295.6 ** 83 ** 77 * 16.8 * 15.6 ** +1.2
      89 * 292.3 ** 82 ** 76 * 16.8 * 15.6 ** +1.2
      13 * 291.7 ** 80 ** 69 * 16.5 * 14.2 ** +2.3
      12 * 265.6 ** 67 ** 72 * 15.1 * 16.3 ** -1.1
      78 * 253.6 ** 61 ** 55 * 14.4 * 13.0 ** +1.4
      51 * 219.2 ** 42 ** 58 * 11.5 * 15.9 ** -4.4
      34 * 196.9 ** 48 ** 62 * 14.6 * 18.9 ** -4.3
      46 ** 81.4 ** 10 ** 21 ** 7.4 * 15.5 ** -8.1
      85 ** 69.5 ** 10 ** 13 ** 8.6 * 11.2 ** -2.6
      33 ** 34.2 *** 5 *** 6 ** 8.8 * 10.5 ** -1.8
      88 ** 33.1 *** 8 ** 13 * 14.5 * 23.6 ** -9.1
      67 *** 8.7 *** 0 *** 3 ** 0.0 * 20.7 * -20.7
      28 *** 7.4 *** 2 *** 2 * 16.2 * 16.2 * +-0.0
      ——————————————–
      Tot 3411.9 * 843 * 903 * 14.8 * 15.9 * -1.1

      It’s reassuring to see the total SCF and SCA per hour is almost identical from defencemen to forwards. The ratio of both is around 2.9 SC for forwards for every 2 for defencemen; it should be a little below 3:2 for reason of occasional 4v4 play, not to mention the few games that Smid and Strudwick played up front. Bottom line, the raw numbers pass the smell test.

      Individually, Horcoff has a much better differential of scoring opportunities for:against than the other third-liners. :) In fact, his is the best of the first liners. Pleasant surprise to see Cogliano in second place by this metric, and Pouliot in third. Gagner is surprisingly effective as well, tied with Hemsky and Penner at +1.2/60 (in fact 27 and 89 are nearly identical right across the board).

      It’s the other half of the roster that is cause for concern, starting with the captain. Dennis has been noting all season how 18-34 have been getting smoked out there, and that’s confirmed here, as they have the two worst records among records for scoring chances allowed. Cole meanwhile is among the worst for chances generated per 60, ahead of just Brodziak who has had a regular diet of wingers from the very bottom end of the roster and Zero time playing with Horc and Hemmer. Cole has gotten 10% more ES TOI than Penner, but generates just 75% of the SCF while the two are about the same for SCA. I’m still waiting to find a stat that suggests there’s much to get excited about w.r.t. Cole.

      By this metric at least, the kids haven’t been killing us, but the second level vets (Cole, Moreau, Pisani) have been. Is that all due to tough match-ups?

      I’ll bring up the special teams info after the game. First things first: Goilers!

    11. December 13, 2008 at

      they have the two worst records among records for scoring chances allowed

      They have the two worst records among regulars (in SCA/60)

    12. David Staples
      December 14, 2008 at

      Thanks Bruce (and Dennis).

      Fact is, regarding Moreau, he’s just a weak offensive player, and this stat shows that very well. His stick is where scoring chances go to die. He got some good luck early on and scored some points, but at this point, he’s a fourth liner energy guy/penalty killer. He’d be good in that role this year, his best chance for success. Even though his SCA/60 is tops, the mistakes he did make early on were deadly.

      Not so down on Cole, and I do give him credit for drawing so many penalties. That’s got to add something to his offensive worth.

      As I recall, Visnovsky was terrible on the penalty kill. Maybe he’d be better now, as his game has settled down considerably. He’s not making nearly so many horrible goal-causing mistakes as he did early on.

      BTW Dennis, though this stat measures team or unit play, I like it a helluva lot better as a measure for individual play than traditional plus/minus. Valuable information.

    13. December 14, 2008 at

      Great stuff, Bruce, and yes you’d have to think that matchups are playing a role in the way some of the players are grading early on.

      And the whole experiment with 34 pivoting a tough min line with 18-26 was an absolute disaster and was a drag on their performance.

      Overall I think we’re still looking for another line that can play tough opp.

      And of course can kill penalties;)

    14. December 14, 2008 at

      Thank you for the list is a lot of work.

    15. December 14, 2008 at

      OK, finally got through it. Here are the special teams scoring chances for forwards. The numbers reconcile less well with the defenders for both special teams, but they’re in the ballpark.

      Powerplay
      # * PP TOI * SCF * SCA * F/60 * A/60 * +-/60
      ———————————————————–
      83 * 108.4 ** 58 *** 6 * 32.1 ** 3.3 * +28.8
      10 * 103.1 ** 59 *** 6 * 34.3 ** 3.5 * +30.8
      26 ** 63.6 ** 25 *** 5 * 23.6 ** 4.7 * +18.9
      89 ** 59.6 ** 21 *** 5 * 21.1 ** 5.0 * +16.1
      27 ** 51.5 ** 31 *** 3 * 36.1 ** 3.5 * +32.6
      12 ** 50.2 ** 20 *** 5 * 23.9 ** 6.0 * +17.9
      13 ** 49.2 ** 19 *** 7 * 23.2 ** 8.5 * +14.6
      78 ** 13.1 *** 6 *** 1 * 27.5 ** 4.6 * +22.9
      88 *** 9.3 *** 2 *** 2 * 12.9 * 12.9 * +-0.0
      18 *** 5.8 *** 1 *** 0 * 10.3 ** 0.0 * +10.3
      34 *** 3.5 *** 0 *** 1 ** 0.0 * 17.1 * -17.1
      51 *** 3.0 *** 1 *** 0 * 20.0 ** 0.0 * +20.0
      33 *** 0.6
      85 *** 0.3
      28 *** 0
      46 *** 0
      67 *** 0
      Tot 521.2 * 243 **41 * 28.0 ** 4.7 * +23.3

      The (current) first unit guys are way out in front here, led by Penner whose SC numbers are vastly superior to Cole’s despite the latter having been given more minutes, esp. early in the season. The kids do not fare well on the PP, creating way fewer opportunities and allowing way more. Brodziak has the highest efficiency rate, turning one scoring opportunity into one game-winning powerplay goal. Limited but encouraging numbers from Pouliot.

      Shorthanded
      # * SH TOI * SCF * SCA * F/60 * A/60 * +-/60
      ———————————————————–
      10 ** 82.5 *** 3 ** 61 ** 2.2 * 44.4 * -42.2
      18 ** 69.9 *** 6 ** 38 ** 5.2 * 32.6 * -27.5
      51 ** 66.5 *** 5 ** 41 ** 4.5 * 37.0 * -32.5
      34 ** 38.6 *** 1 ** 23 ** 1.6 * 35.8 * -34.2
      27 ** 35.1 *** 2 ** 27 ** 3.4 * 46.2 * -42.7
      13 ** 15.0 *** 0 ** 11 ** 0.0 * 44.0 * -44.0
      85 ** 14.1 *** 0 ** 11 ** 0.0 * 46.8 * -46.8
      89 ** 13.6 *** 2 *** 6 ** 8.8 * 26.5 * -17.6
      26 *** 9.9 *** 1 *** 5 ** 6.1 * 30.3 * -24.2
      78 *** 9.1 *** 0 *** 3 ** 0.0 * 19.8 * -19.8
      83 *** 3.5 *** 0 *** 2 ** 0.0 * 34.3 * -34.3
      12 *** 1.1
      46 *** 0.6
      33 *** 0.5
      28 *** 0
      67 *** 0
      88 *** 0
      Tot. 360.0 ** 20 * 228 ** 3.3 * 38.0 * -34.7

      Several forwards are struggling, allowing ~45 scoring opps per hour, including the biggest minutes guy Horcoff. Appearances are not deceiving w.r.t. Penner; he is much better on the PP than the PK. A little surprising to see Cogliano without a single scoring chance generated at the good end; both he and Reddox appear to be spending most of their time in chase mode. Moreau’s scoring chance numbers look a little better, but looking up BehindtheNet, on a per 60 basis he’s been pulling the puck out of his own net the most of any of them. Way down the list in terms of ice time but with mighty fine numbers in his small sample size is one Sam Gagner.

    16. December 15, 2008 at

      Meanwhile, Shawn Horcoff is 41-62 (39.8%) and Kyle Brodziak is 30-43 (41.1%) on SH faceoffs. Of the myriad things our PK is doing wrong, that one arguably hurts the most, moving from last year to this one.

    17. December 15, 2008 at

      Good point, Doogie. What I don’t know is what is the league-wide FO% in short handed situations? My guess would be something sensibly less than 50% as the team with the man advantage has a bit of an edge on scrambled draws. But that’s an observation that I’ve never seen supported (or otherwsie) by actual facts. At a guess, I’d say ~45%.

    18. Vic Ferrari
      December 15, 2008 at

      Props to you Dennis. It`s generally halfwits responding to you on these, honestly, they don`t have a feaking clue what you`re doing or why. Bless their hearts. (BTW, I think that Staples is being intentionally dense at this point to win the favour of the Brucites, seriously, read his last remark. Funny shit, is that)

      It`s marvellous stuff though. Not that you`ve ever listened to my opinion, but my thinking is that even the hardasses don`t turn down the occasional `thanks, dude`. So there you go.

    19. December 16, 2008 at

      my thinking is that even the hardasses don`t turn down the occasional `thanks, dude`.

      I dunno, Vic, any time I’ve tried to acknowledge the great work you do on ToI I’ve either been turned down or studiously ignored. I guess there’s hardasses and then there’s hardasses.

      On one thing we do agree: Dennis is doing outstanding work here. Even this halfwit can see that. And appreciate it.

    20. January 19, 2009 at

      Totals (Player,GP,EV,PP,SH)

      05 – 12 – 028/034 – 00/00 – 00/00
      10 – 25 – 106/088 – 59/06 – 03/61
      12 – 22 – 067/072 – 20/05 – 00/00
      13 – 25 – 080/069 – 19/07 – 00/11
      18 – 24 – 070/108 – 01/00 – 06/38
      24 – 23 – 064/087 – 01/00 – 02/77
      26 – 25 – 066/084 – 25/05 – 01/05
      27 – 23 – 083/077 – 31/03 – 02/27
      28 – 02 – 002/002 – 00/00 – 00/00
      33 – 10 – 005/006 – 00/00 – 00/00
      34 – 16 – 048/062 – 00/01 – 01/23
      37 – 22 – 096/092 – 18/05 – 00/19
      43 – 22 – 049/077 – 00/00 – 04/37
      44 – 24 – 105/104 – 61/06 – 06/52
      46 – 14 – 010/021 – 00/00 – 00/00
      49 – 01 – 004/000 – 00/00 – 00/01
      51 – 23 – 042/058 – 01/00 – 05/41
      62 – 01 – 001/000 – 00/00 – 00/03
      67 – 01 – 000/003 – 00/00 – 00/00
      71 – 25 – 130/111 – 56/10 – 02/11
      77 – 25 – 109/120 – 30/05 – 03/47
      78 – 24 – 061/055 – 06/00 – 00/03
      83 – 25 – 103/096 – 58/06 – 00/02
      85 – 09 – 010/013 – 00/00 – 00/11
      88 – 03 – 008/013 – 02/02 – 00/00
      89 – 22 – 082/076 – 21/05 – 02/06

    21. Pingback: NEW STUDY POINTS TO EDMONTON'S BEST (AND WORST) TWO-WAY PLAYERS | Edmonton Journal

    Leave a Reply

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *