Vic had this thread last year at his site and I’ve been looking around for these numbers to see what the bookies think. It’s interesting to me that this comes out basically at the end of pre-season, after all of the hockey books and crap have come out; it looks quite similar to a lot of predictions I’ve seen from our friends in the media.
Here’s how I’d split up my hypothetical $1000:
Feel free to post how you’d split up yours and we’ll look again in April.
$200 Atlanta Under — In my opinion, the Thrashers were far and away the worst team in the league last season, even though they may have not finished with the fewest points. They had the worst goal differential in the league, the worst shot differential, and did so while having one of the league’s easiest schedules (by virtue of playing in the worst division). I just don’t see them getting more points than they did last year because, improvement or no-improvement, you still have to take account that they over performed based on their goal differential and underlying numbers . The new schedule format will do them no favors either.
$200 Montreal under — It pain me to say this , being a Habs fan and all, but a good measure of luck was involved with them performing as well as they did last year. For one , they had almost no significant injuries all season long. Secondly, they were one of the luckier teams in the league in terms of the percentages (high even strength save percentage, especially relative to the shot quality they were conceding, and a ridiculous shooting percentage on the powerplay). I see a lot of similarities between the Canadiens and the Oilers in that both teams could be fundamentally better than last year and still do worse points-wise (I think either Vic or mc made this point about the Oilers.
$200 Vancouver over — I think that they actually performed respectably last season considering the severity of their injuries. I also don’t think that they got any worse over the offseason.
$200 Washington over — They had awful goaltending for almost all of last season and still managed to win the division. As long as Theodore is at least somewhat better than Kolzig, I think that they’ll win the division again.
$200 Buffalo over — For all that went right for Buffalo in 06-07, they seemed to be one of the unluckier teams last season. I think that they had one of the better goal differentials in the East once you discounted the shootout goals and other noise. A lot of people are predicting that they’ll miss the playoffs, but I tend to see them as a darkhorse.
I may rethink this later, but for today I’m throwing the whole grand on Tampa = Under.
Interesting - you and Mirtle are in the same boat there. I really think that TB could be decent, if only they could get some bloody goaltending. If I was the GM there, I’d have thought long and hard about spending the money on Huet last summer instead of Ryan Malone. OK, well not instead of Ryan Malone but the money that I didn’t spend on Malone, I’d really have thought about Huet. They outshout last year, they’ve got some finishers, the division sucks and they signed a bunch of guys who I don’t think will add a lot to their team. The under is probably the smart bet but I don’t fell really strongly about it. I’d be more surprised if Philly beats that number.
Calgary Under
Columbus Under
Devils Under
Ottawa Under
Buffalo Over
$200 each. I’m too tired to justify it tonight. Bedtime.
$500 - Calgary Under.
$500 - Ottawa Over.
Actually, on second thought:
$334 Calgary Under.
$333 Ottawa Over.
$333 CBJ Over.
I’m surprised you put Boston as under, their OT record did make them look better but they are getting back a significant piece in Patrice Bergeron.
I agree with what most people have said so far though and I’d go under on Colorado and over on Buffalo.
Tim Thomas was a horse there last year. I’m not wild about betting on that to repeat. That said, I have a feeling Rask is for real. I’m probably the softest on them of my five.
$250 CHI Under. Every year they’re the up and coming media darling and every year they shit the bed.
$250 VAN Under. They got worse offensively (if such a thing were even possible).
$250 OTT Under. They’re done.
$250 PIT Under. At some point, losing your all those bodies has to show up in the standings.
$200 CGY Under - I think they’ll struggle to make the playoffs. Bertuzzi and Cammalleri exchanged for Tanguay and Huselius? meh.
$300 BUF Over - unlucky last year, still loaded with offensive depth.
$200 ATL Over - Defense will be much better and Lethenon will face fewer quality SA.
$200 PIT Under - huge turnover at both Wing and Defense will take time for them to gell.
$100 NYR Under - most turnover of any playoff team. Lundquist may not be 100% if true that is serious blow to this team.
$100 MIN Over - ying to Flames yang. They a bit better than this Vegas rating in my book.
I’d put $500 on Nashville reaching 84 or more and $500 on the Tampa Bay going under 92.
$500 - Washington Over
$500 - Buffalo Over
Plus this way I’ll care more about the Eastern Conference
Minnesota - 334$ OVER - This is not a playoff bubble team, despite what the media claims; they will be well clear of 93 points by year-end.
San Jose - 333$ UNDER - The Pacific Division will not have 3 - 100 point teams; I’m not 100% sure which will take a step back, but in Dallas the Ribeiro fall should be compensated for by a full season of Richards, and adding 10 MIL for Blake/Boyle sure didn’t impress me as “moving in the right direction”.
New York Rangers - 333$ UNDER - Wade Redden? Really? Turning over virtually the entire roster is not a good idea, and I’m not at all convincd they’re a playoff team.