Per Staples:
…I’d say the expected return on a relatively proven Penner just heading into the peak years of his career is better than the expected return of all but the highest of draft picks.
If the Oilers don’t give up the highest of picks (top six) — and there was some reason to expect they would not when Lowe signed Penner — this deal works.
So it worked then, and it works now, and it will still work in June, come draft day, so long as the Oilers don’t utterly fall apart in the next few months.
The choice that Kevin Lowe faced last summer did not include the value of a first, second and a third round pick based on the Oilers standing with Dustin Penner in the lineup.
He was either going to have a first, second and third round picks, the value of which would be determined by the team that he iced without Dustin Penner, or he was going to have Dustin Penner. Saying that the deal was a good one because an Oilers team with Dustin Penner storms all the way to 23rd in the standings is insane because that was the never the choice that Lowe faced. I don’t even think that Penner has contributed all that much. Staples (and a lot of others) do.
If “Penner has made a contribution worthy of a top 10 pick and $4.25MM” is true, “There were really no other options available when the Oilers signed Penner” is true, “The Oilers are currently in 23rd place” is true, “The Blackhawks are one point back with two games in hand” is true, “The Panthers are two points back with a game in hand” is true, “The Sabres are three points back with three games in hand” is true and “The Oilers have an extraordinarily good record in one goal games” is true, does it not follow, as a simple matter of logic, that Lowe likely gave up “the highest of draft picks” in order to get Penner?
I don’t buy Staples reasoning about the value of a 6-10 pick in a deep draft but, on his own reasoning, I can’t see how the Oilers gave up anything but “the highest of draft picks”.
I should add: expected return isn’t always the best measure. If the mob is going to kill you if you don’t pay back the $1MM you owe them by Saturday, there’s no point investing your $1500 net savings in IBM stock - you’re better off buying 1500 6/49 tickets. Whatever you think of Penner, I think that it has to be conceded that he’s not an elite talent. The Oilers need elite talent.
All this David Staples talk is giving me migraine headaches.
My favorite hockey blogs have become massive Dear John letters to a man named David Staples.
What does this guy do again?
What does this guy do again?
Hey, what the hell else am I going to write?
“I think that Lowe has fucked this team up beyond all redemption. All of the usual blogosphere suspects agree. See you in September.”
I’m just looking for any sort of interesting disagreement at this point, to be quite honest. Given that the emerging consensus seems to be that he’s right, he’s serving as a sort of literary device for me.
Hey, Tyler, the Oilers rock! How can you be so critical of them and Kevin Lowe?
I mean, what a great effort that was tonight against San Jose! The boys were jumping, and they just came up a bit short!
And I think I’d rather have the Habs meet the Flames in the Stanley Cup final than watch another frakkin’ game like that.
Shoot a puck at my head now.
Sigh.
P.S. Yes, the Oilers need elite talent. Horcoff-Hemsky-Penner have played like an elite line, though after the San Jose game, it’s a crappy time to be arguing that.
Is Penner the third wheel on that line? Yes, but he’s still a functioning wheel and contributes a reasonable amount to a strong threesome, in my opinion at least.
In regards to Slipper’s comment and Tyler’s response, I agree.
Without these meaningless squabbles, how else would we stay awake watching crap hockey like that game.
One in five games, without fail, the Oilers phone in a game that has me wishing I were an NFL fan.
Go Patriots. (Hey, isn’t that what Andy Grabia has been posting about lately?)
Cheers,
Your Friendly Neighborhood Literary Device.
Voice of the fan might have been the expression I was looking for.
(I’d go on for 1500 words explaining but, well…you know - gotta keep it brief)
Well, if the next thread is titled “Why BryanBroil (or whatever the hell his name is) is Wrong- Why Trading Rob Schremp won’t help the Oilers Now, in 277 words or less”, I’m going start accusing you of mailing it in.
In fairness to me, the breakdown of what it would take for teh Penner deal to work is well within my wheelhouse.
For my next post, I’m thinking “If the Oilers knew that Pisani had colitis…why’d they give him $10MM?”
Go Patriots. (Hey, isn’t that what Andy Grabia has been posting about lately?)
Oh yeah, nothing but.
Who’s looking forward to seeing Roli versus Dallas on Friday?
Stupid.
I like Penner, he clearly has some nice things and has already displayed some mental toughness that maybe other guys didn’t after having been acquired by the Oilers.
The problem is that the price tag was dear and you don’t really need a slide rule and an adiator to know it. You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows* if you know what I mean.
*credit to Robert Zimmerman.
what are the chances that first round draft pick turns into a first or second line player? second round? third round?
Without any numbers to back me up, I’d say decent, slim, and really slim, in that order. Anything’s possible in either direction (see Edmonton’s history with first-rounders, or Detroit’s history with snooze-rounders), but if I’m remembering that graph posted somewhere on the Oilogosphere a dog’s age ago, the first-rounder, likely to be in the top eight, is the only one with good odds hurt us long-term.
odds to* hurt us
Hey….
Am I wrong or is Mc79 one of the guys that says drafting a defenceman in the first round is a bad idea?
Isn’t it hypocritical to pan the idea of drafting D-men high, then turn around and be outraged over Lower giving up a high pick in a defence heavy draft?
Either way. It would have been nice if the Oilers nabbed neither Souray or Penner and gotten a Stamkos instead.
It’s easier to watch a shitty team, when there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
If theres’ a light at the end of this tunnel you can bet that it’s attached to a speeding train.
Tyler, if you want some disagreement why not post something about how the Pats are gonna win the Big Game. (Go Giants).
Could be worse… Buffalo could be enjoying our next four first round picks. At least this way we can hope we keep next years (sure to be good) first round pick, until Lowe realizes that he’s only alienated two of thirty NHL GMs with miserable to mediocre RFA offer sheets.