Kevin Lowe on March 2, 2007:
“If you believe in Billy Beane’s strategy, eventually, you know, someone else does replace those [goals].”
Kevin Lowe on July 4, 2007:
“We need one forward for sure. Maybe we can hold on for a while until we get a second one in a deal after the season starts.
We spent a lot of time at this. Our inability to attract guys. What is it? The city? Me? What’s the statement?
Billy Beane, in Moneyball:
The day you say you have to do something, you’re screwed. Because you are going to make a bad deal. You can always recover from the player you didn’t sign. You may never recover from the player you signed at the wrong price.
So does Kevin Lowe believe in Billy Beane’s strategy?
As the returns continue to roll in, I’d say that the answer is no. Just to get up to date on where I stand on what he’s tried to do with free agents, I wasn’t wild about Kariya, wasn’t interested in Nylander (and thought it stank of desperation), thought the run at Vanek might have worked out well for Edmonton and I loathe the decision to offer Dustin Penner $21.5MM over five years. Let’s take a look at Penner’s numbers:
I’m somewhat confident that he can continue to be a goal scorer at ES. While both his shot numbers are shooting percentage are high, as I understand it, he takes a lot of his shots in close to the net, which makes the shooting percentage more sustainable. He seems to add roughly nothing other than that though - he doesn’t create much offence. His PP numbers are superficially appealing but really, he looks like a passenger on that PP to me. Not only that but Edmonton hasn’t exactly been known for generating chances down low on the PP.
Then you get into the issues of who he played against - nobody special and he’ll see tougher minutes if he’s with Horcoff and Hemsky in Edmonton. Most unnervingly to me, he’s almost a clone of Lupul in terms of putting up a superficially attractive EV- number (which isn’t even that good) that ranks him near the bottom of his team, which features excellent ES goaltending. I listened to Bob Stauffer today, going on about how Penner is the farthest thing possible from Lupul and as far as how he goes about getting his results, I agree (incidentally, if Bob happens across this, I’ll throw $100 on Ryan Smyth getting more points than Dustin Penner over the next three years). Those results are just eerily similar to those posted by Tom Mayson’s grandkid though and I think that’s the real thing to focus on, instead of the style with which he achieved them. As good as Edmonton’s goaltending might be, it’s not Anaheim good and when you factor in that it’s going to be tougher minutes…it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Penner slide to the negative side of the ledger.
From my perspective, Penner is nothing special. Moreover, there’s a lot more uncertainty with him than there is with someone like Scott Hartnell, to whom he keeps getting compared, as Hartnell has a little bit more of a track record. I’m hoping that Brian Burke bails Lowe out here and matches the offer but if I was him, I’d be thinking pretty hard about letting Kevin have him, keeping the money, rolling the dice on that 2008 first round pick and hoping that Dustin Penner goes down in history with Ernie Hicke.
To me though, this is indicative that there’s a bigger problem in Edmonton. I wrote a few days back that as much as people are sick of hearing about Pronger and Smyth, everything that the Oilers have done since those trades can be linked to it. They gave up two guys who are elite players, got a return that can be charitably characterized as futures and they’re trying to make up for all the ground that those moves cost them in one fell swoop. They’ve decided that they have to do something. The problem with that really is that guys like Ryan Smyth - and Dustin Penner is no Ryan Smyth - and Chris Pronger aren’t readily available and spending all of your money on the first Souray and Penner who say yes might make you better for the 2007-08 season, but it does so at the cost of dropping the ceiling for this team. As good as Dustin Penner and Sheldon Souray might be, they’re nowhere near the best at their positions nor are they true difference makers. If Lowe’s offer isn’t matched though, he’s got them locked in at $9.7MM for the next five years. In the NHL, winning the Stanley Cup is an efficiency contest - you need big bang for the buck - and Edmonton’s basically conceded that $9.7MM of their budget isn’t going to be doing anything for the Oilers in that department.
Stauffer was going on the other day about how his show doesn’t get callers saying that Lowe should be fired. I’ve wavered on that this summer - it’s hard to know how much blame he should get for the Pronger and Smyth fiascoes. Were those his decisions or were they decisions made because of the unique budgetary circumstances imposed by the EIG? I’d argue that we’ve seen what Kevin Lowe would do with money to spend since July 1 though and the way in which he’s tried to spend the money isn’t particularly impressive. I envision some sort of master list somewhere, that they keep crossing names off and then moving to the next name on the list and offering him far more money than he’s worth. The fact of the matter is, the moves that Lowe needs to make to fix this team aren’t there right now and probably, with the exception of the Lupul trade, haven’t been there since the beginning of the summer. It’s circumstance, it sucks that but that’s it. If you aren’t willing to spend five years in the tank, building an elite club requires a long series of making smart bets and having some of them hit bigger than you’ve got any right to expect them too. Lowe’s moves this summer have, with the exception of Vanek, been devoid of that possibility. The Oilers might be better next year with Penner than without, but limiting the exposure to a finish in the real depths of the league has come at the cpst of future possibilities to finish higher. It’s disappointing and, to me, it suggests that Lowe lacks the vision and willingness to do something that’s really difficult - telling the city that the moves aren’t there and that this team is going to suck for a while - to be the right guy to fill this job at the moment. Far from Billy Beane, Lowe’s doing a very passable of Steve Phillips at the moment.
I’ve never read Moneyball but have a basic understanding of what was said in it. I’ve always felt there was more than one way for any organization to win (some teams go old like the 80s Phillies and some just keep adding pitching like the Dodgers used to) but this year’s Kevin Lowe plan isn’t in the book.
Suspect it’s for a reason.
I can accept that there’s more than one way for an organization to win - Calgary had a winning team in 03-04 without the ability to score goals, Edmonton had a winning team in the ’80s without the ability to stop ‘em.
The underlying point there though, that thinking you have to make a move is deadly is pretty accurate, I think.
Pick your poison: Mediocrity with a hope of playoffs if the kids turn out or suckage for the next 2-3 years?
I hate to be Lowe, but he’s picking the former as you know because the latter path is uncertain (Oilers might suck for 5 years due to team apathy).
voxel: I think the Oilers will suck, that’s written in stone. Trading Pronger and Smyth with long term payback made that possible. I don’t really think there’s a team in the NHL who could lose those two guys for little immediate help (and in the case of Lupul and Smid it had a negative value this past season) and survive.
Remember when the Oilers dealt for Pronger and Peca? Those deals made sense, even with Peca’s injury history. The Oilers were immediately better, even though the goaltending was still suspect.
The Souray and Penner deals are for players with counting numbers will not have the same impact. The Oilers have gone from “get the GUY” offseasons to basically what the Chicago Cubs have done every year in memory.
This offseason has been as ridiculous as the time Chicago’s GM (Ed Lynch? Might have been) said something like “we’re not going to pay Greg Maddux that kind of money. Hell we can get three players for that” or some such.
I agree with MC. Kevin Lowe will have spent pretty close to 49M by the time Burke declines to match and had he started the offseason with the idea that that he’d wait for quality to come to him he would have a larger number of players who could cover their bet.
I do like the Pitkanen and Garon pickups. After that it’s a blur, including two contracts now that will have major impact down the line. Souray and Penner are going to be sucking the life out of the cap for years, AND should the dollar turn lord know what this team will look like three years from now.
Kevin Lowe is starting to look like an 18 year old at last call - he orders way more than he can drink and it’s gonna make him sick later, but he’s going home with someone dammit, no matter how ugly or with how many missing limbs she has.
It just dawned on me - if Lowe pokes the badger enough to have some RFA offers come through next year an declines to match he could be a big player in the Tavares sweepstakes with three or four first round picks in 2009, depending on who and for how much the sheets are.
Sketchy - perhaps you’ve stumbled onto the master plan!;o) Keep your eyes peeled for black sedans and men in trenchcoats and sunglasses
“I envision some sort of master list somewhere, that they keep crossing names off and then moving to the next name on the list and offering him far more money than he’s worth.”
Amen, MC. I agree completely with this entry. If we were smart with our money we’d wait until next summer instead of overpaying on names that are 38th and 39th on our list. The problem is that from a PR perspective, I don’t think Lowe’s job could survive a failure to make a splash and come through on his earlier promises (replacing Smyth’s goals). It really seems that Lowe is looking out more for his own skin than the long-term future of the franchise.
Another little thing bothers me. 5 years to Penner, yet we could only ink Pitkanen for 1?! God forbid we lose him to a RFA raid next summer.
I think one needs to keep in mind that the cap went up rather significantly this year. Accordingly, players salaries are going to go up. I think 4 million for Penner is getting rather close to market value. It looks like Derek Roy just signed for a similar number in Buffalo and I don’t think he’s much of a better player than Penner. The cap may also go up again in the next five years, it certainly isnt going down. Frankly, signing players to longer term deals seems to be an excellent strategy in the reign of the new CBA.
It also must be kept in mind that from the looks of things, we are going to have to pay some players a bit of a premium to come here. I have no problem doing that.
If I understand your post correctly, the biggest issue you have with this deal (and Souray’s deal) is that it will hamper our ability to do something in the future for a bona fide superstar. I don’t see it really. If Penner comes here, our cap number is about 44 million. About 1 million below the “self imposed cap” and 6 million below the league cap. One would think that any deal to obtain a bona fide superstar would involve us giving up several players (Horcoff? Torres? Staois?) that would take several million in salary away, so I don’t see why we wouldnt have the room.
Both the Souray signing and Penner signing (assuming he comes here) have some potential risk. Souray had a career year, no doubt about it. I’m not sure he will repeat those numbers but he gives us a new dimesion to the PP, something we were missing last year. Here is some interesting information:
Montreal had the best powerplay unit last year in the regular season…..22.8%.
Souray played 81 games and had almost 2/3 of his points on the powerplay.
The year before Montreal had the 5th best powerplay….souray played 75 games that year.
The year before that, Mtl has the 10th best powerplay….but Souray played in only 63 games….
In 2002, Souray played in only 34 games, and their powerplay was 25th overall.
In 01 he played 52 games and the powerplay was 18th overall.
Not sure if there is causation here, or mere correlation, but when Souray played more games, the Montreal powerplay was better, when he played fewer games it was worse.
I guess we will see how this pans out this season. Maybe Souray is a difference maker.
WRT Penner, why do you think his PP numbers are superficially appealing and that he is a passenger on the PP? They look okay to me, and it should also be kept in mind he was probably not on their first unit or getting a bunch of PP time. With the loss of Smytty we need a guy that can dig in the corners and stand in front of the net, both of which I think he does very well.
Its so cliche that its cliche to say its cliche but we will have to wait and see.
Things may turn up bust with both deals, but I really think Lowe is doing well with what he has been dealt. We are a significantly better team today, and maybe by next tuesday than we were last season, and I think there will be another move or two by the start of training camp. Lowe told the city over the last year that the “moves werent there”. It was evident in September last year that we needed a d man, but there was nothing available. I think if he hadnt done anything this offseason, you probably would have criticed him for that too.
Lastly, I am intrigued by your Ryan Smyth comment. I guess the question is, would you rather have Penner at 4.25 or Smyth at 6.25? Will Penner score at least 68% of the points that Smyth will over the next 3 seasons?
1) Darryl Katz makes a public offer for the Oilers and ends his media blackout just long enough to say he’ll spend to the cap if he was the owner of the team. What he means is that EIG and Lowe are not spending to the cap and therefore, are not fully competing in the new NHL landscape.
2) Lowe and EIG sees these comments, and the next day, throw a huge pile of cash Dustin Penner’s way. What they really mean is that they are trying to spend to the cap and fully competing in the new NHL landscape.
3) When the Ducks match the Penner offer, Lowe and EIG can say they are fully competing, but actually still keep the team’s payroll below their self-imposed ceiling. All show and no dough.
Biggest reason I do not care for Lowe’s offers to Vanek and Penner is the position these two play. Wingers are the least important position in hockey.
I subscribe to Hitchcock’s theory of playing guys in pairs (Gretz–Kurri, Messier–Anderson). Methinks even JFJ could post 50 points playing with two legit top sixers.
Problem is, I can’t recall too many winger–winger duos being all that. Maybe Naslund/Bertuzzi. But a better bet is a centre–winger duo, and I maintain that Lowe needs to find a true #1 centre to play with Hemmer. Put a LeCavalier with Hemsky, and guys like Torres, Moreau, Pisani will look just fine on their port side.
Looks to me that Lowe spent too much money for too long a period and gave up too many good draft picks in a good draft year in order to sign an unproven guy who plays the wrong position.
I’m hoping Burke matches the offer.
I guess the question is, would you rather have Penner at 4.25 or Smyth at 6.25? Will Penner score at least 68% of the points that Smyth will over the next 3 seasons?,
The real issue is…will Penner contribute to the Oilers goal differential in a near equitable (”68%”) manner as Smyth would have? Doubtful.
Not to mention that the valuing of points to dollars at a 1 to 1 ratio is problematic. I would suggest it’s possible the hypothetical 32% additional goal production offered by Smyth could represent greater value than the additional $2M he’s making in salary. Particularly considering related variables like strength of opposition…
And that’s assuming that Penner does reach the 68% comparison threshold. Which is by no means certain on the Oilers.
A deeper question may be, can you even build a championship team incrementally? Are you doomed to suck and then hoard draft choices to assemble a summit attempt for a season or two and then repeat; or can you sneak up on it gradually and then with one key piece arrive? Are the teams that are perenially good: Red Wings, Sharks, Jersey, are they closer to the grail, then teams that seem to be assembling: LA, Chi? Can you just throw money at it like Phi, NYR?
I don’t understand any of the moves Lowe is making. Everyone knows this will be a very very bad hockey team for the 07-08 season, but if the organization is smart, they can make it so the team is respectable in 08-09 and so forth. All the moves Lowe’s making are long term though - they’re stop gap solutions installed long term.
It’s as if the dam is leaking and Lowe hired a little dutch boy to plug it with his finger and then signed him to a 5 year deal instead of signing the kid to a 1 year and then filling it with concrete after the contract is up.
Can anyone honestly explain this to me; does Lowe actually believe Penner will be an Elite player in 3-4 years?
does Lowe actually believe Penner will be an Elite player in 3-4 years?
Nope, Lowe is obviously betting he will be less than elite, as he signed him for less than $5.5 million per year
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If the Oilers hadn’t added 6 legitimate NHL players, plus gotten back 3 very important pieces back from injury, to the craptastic roster they ended the season with, I’d agree with your assertion that this will be a very very bad hockey team.
rstahl: “Lowe is obviously betting he will be less than elite, as he signed him for less than $5.5 million per year”
That had me laughing out loud.
Pat, its what I do. I doubt anyone will be changing their opinion of this team until it hits the ice, so until then, I’ll just crack wise.
Elduche says:
“I think 4 million for Penner is getting rather close to market value. It looks like Derek Roy just signed for a similar number in Buffalo and I don’t think he’s much of a better player than Penner.”
I’d say D. Roy is certainly a much better scorer than Penner. Penner is about a year older, but Roy put up 2.73 pts/hr while Penner just 2.26 pts/hr. In terms of scoring efficiency, Roy ranked 85th among all NHL forwards with substantial ice time, while Penner was just 172nd in that same ranking.