Pat LaForge on February 27, 2007:
While on the one hand some Oilers fans might be distressed that this trade was made today, I want those same fans to be assured that the Oilers will use these excellent young players and our own deep pool of young talent in a new plan for this team. We can afford to spend the money necessary to have the kind of elite players expected. This was about the Oilers staying true to a plan. I know our hockey strategy is sound.
Kevin Lowe on February 27, 2007:
I want to be very clear that making this trade today is a hockey decision. It was not financial.
Kevin Lowe on March 2, 2007:
It’s not that we don’t have the resources, it’s not that we didn’t have the money and it’s not that we won’t have an eight or nine million dollar player on our team someday, maybe in the very near future. It’s just that we made a decision that we couldn’t allocate the kind of money that they were demanding for a very good player, not an elite player.
Pat LaForge on March 15, 2007:
Of course, Ryan had a demand for compensation. We matched it and it was rejected by him at the time. Nobody sent us a note but it was what he wanted. Kevin was left with a very short deadline.
Kevin Lowe on July 4, 2007, courtesy of Jim Matheson:
Lowe did want Ryan Smyth after trading him to Long Island Feb. 27 because they couldn’t agree on a five-year deal. He says he made a call to agent Don Meehan early in the free-agent proceedings Sunday, but Smyth opted for Colorado.
“Now we’ve got a different budget and a different salary cap (up from $44 million last year to $50.3 million this season),” said Lowe, admitting he hadn’t read the tea leaves well enough to know how high it would jump. If he’d known in February what he knows now, he said Smyth probably wouldn’t have gotten away.
I hate this team.
Good on Lowe for admitting he screwed up.
Might be time for him to walk away.
You should have known on deadline day? You SHOULD have known last summer Kevin. This one’s on you.
M-I-C-K-E-Y M-O-U-S-E
That’s just fucking terrible.
The two arent mutually exclusive. You can’t fit a top tier 5.5M supporting cast winger on a team you want to win if it has a 42M budget. You just cant.
The real question is a) why didnt they anticipate the cap hike atleast to a reasonable amount, and b) why werent the lines of communication open enough between Lowe and the EIG to consider said hike and potential budgets.
That may be a bit perfect in itself, in the sense that you have the opportunities of signing a UFA and of resigning Smyth being potentially there.
We all know it was a mistake, nobody is denying that… but it wasn’t outright deceit. the only outright deceit and smokescreens we can point a finger at here is the EIG’s budget restrictions and their affect on Lowe’s planning.
So is this going to happen every year? Is this management team so incompetant that they can’t make any predictions about the future? What an absolutely horrible, inexcusable excuse. Even worse, no one in the media has punished him for it. With the exception of Barnes, they’re just walking press releases, completlely devoid of independent and critical thought.
Ferguson gets crucified weekly, weekly, here in Toronto. There’s always a writeup calling him on the carpet for something.
If he gave an interview similar to Lowe’s there would be such a massive bloodletting in the media you’d have to turn your head away. It would hurt that much to watch.
This Terry Jones article says the same thing, perhaps even more strongly. I think Jones and Matheson were the two reporters present at this ‘exclusive’ interview with Lowe.
http://www.edmontonsun.com/Sports/Columnists/Jones_Terry/2007/07/05/4313907.html
It’s just really sad. I don’t like the idea of going after RFA’s either. Our reputation is in the dumps as it is, the last thing we should be doing is pissing off other GM’s. Besides, there’s a few other considerations: (a) we probably wouldn’t get them anyhow (most of the teams would match); (b)even if we DID get them, the cost is too high (giving up draft picks, when there’s no doubt we’re going to suck next year, regardless of a Parise or Vanek); and finally, (c) we should be disqualified from even trying to get Parise - Lowe had his chance on that score (I say that kind of jokingly, but it’s true.)
The EIG are all set up to have their most profitable season ever. (The Sun reports the budget is only $43M)
In one year, this team will firmly be in the Tavares sweepstakes with a healthy prospect pool. New ownership (Katz?) will bring enough hope to the faithful that the gate will not suffer.
Love it when a plan comes together.
Lowe has played his part very well (intentional?). Supporting actor Oscars go to Laforge and Nichols.
He only had about $28 million US committed to players for this season going into the free-agent frenzy, which left him around $20 million to spend on this upcoming year.
Funny that Jones says the budget is $43, while Matheson says it is $48.
I’d love to say I’m surprised by all this, but I can’t do it.
DD, are you enjoying the days where Smyth isn’t the team’s best player?
I know I am.
The optimal operating paradigm seems to be evolving as so: When you’re lousy build up draft picks (auction good players at trade deadline). Draft for quality, build up a cohort of young players that can up together, (need your own farm team)as the team starts to have success analyze and identify the key pieces and sign them to medium term contracts that cover their most productive years. As contracts come up remember its easier and cheaper to re-sign and extend a player than bidding with other teams for Free Agents. Finally don’t look for FAs too far ahead and depend on them being available, because most of the good ones are going to re-sign with their teams. This is all seemingly obvious and the Oilers have at various times done most of these things well, but management failures are really hurting them right now, I can’t believe that they don’t have a department of people who should be doing nothing but watch the cap trend and other teams’ responses.
“When you’re lousy build up draft picks (auction good players at trade deadline). ”
Or you can trade away your 2nd rounder for Allan friggin Rourke. Yikes.
This team is flat out embarrassing. I don’t mind a rebuild phase, but every time you see Lowe’s name in the paper it’s embarrassing.
This team pisses me off.
I love the way the reaction to “I was wrong” is “YOU FUCKING MORON”.
You wonder why every GM in the league needs to lie through their teeth. Because all of you hate it when they tell the truth.
I don’t see how Lowe’s story has changed that much.
Historically for the Oilers, “financial decision” has meant they couldn’t pay *anybody* that much. See Doug Weight, Curtis Joseph, etc. Well, is some cases they could pay a single player, but it wasn’t going to fit in their overall team plan and budget. The difference this time is they weren’t claiming inability to pay an individual six million (plus). They just didn’t want to allocate that amount to Smyth for each of the next five years.
Agree or disagree with that decision, but it’s basically a hockey decision. Financial elements were obviously involved. As dynastydays mentions in post #3, the two are not mutually exclusive.
The point then (at the trade deadline) and now is that over a 20 year period, Oiler stars had been leaving because the Oilers couldn’t match what other teams were offering. This time, the Oilers could. Therefore, this wasn’t another same old same old financial decision.
Their plan–which hasn’t worked yet–was to make-over the team, spending the money elsewhere. As it turned out, the cap went up (more on that later), so they apparently pursued two hefty contracts, not just one.
They even had a player signed to a letter of intent for Smyth’s money (albeit 4 years instead of 5). Again, that speaks to a difference from prior years, and why Smyth’s trade wasn’t a “financial decision”. For whatever reason, they weren’t comfortable allocating those resources to Smyth under the cap. They thought they could spend it better elsewhere. That makes it a hockey decision.
So far, that plan hasn’t exactly worked. Which is one reason Lowe has admitted he’d rather have Smyth back. That much is obvious. If “he knew then what he knows now”–that he’d basically strike out with big name UFAs–he’d have signed Smyth. Who wouldn’t want Smyth instead of a “meaningless” fax?
That doesn’t mean they have no plan. It simply hasn’t worked. Some saw this problem coming. Others were more cynical, saying the Oilers wouldn’t even try to spend Smyth’s money on anybody. That may yet happen if they continue to strike out…but maybe they should just bank it for next summer…
As for the cap, wouldn’t the team’s capologist be responsible for forecasting where the cap was headed? Wasn’t that Howson? In that case, how does Lowe get blamed for not forecasting the cap properly? Makes about as much sense as blaming Lowe for the price of oil.
Then there’s the Nylander fiasco. My read of Jones article is that McPhee knew all along that Gillis had signed a letter of intent with the Oilers (on behalf of Nylander). How all of that fits in “good faith negotiations” is beyond me. Do the articles in the CBA hinge on that requirement? In other words, maybe the Caps aren’t exactly faultless…
Anyway, I’d bet Lowe would love to get back at the Caps (he’s not exactly one to take things lying down). I suggest there is a remedy. If the Oil are unable to get a UFA/RFA/trade to eat up the available budget this season, bank that money for next summer. A certain Alexander might need an offer sheet…
Of course the RFA route is more likely to work if the targeted team is up against the cap…and the Caps aren’t anywhere near it at this point (although the Poti and Nylander contracts are not insignificant). Still, if the money isn’t spent this season, throw it at some RFAs next summer. Starting with Ovechkin. If nothing else, it’ll force the Caps hands.
Back on point, I don’t see the latest interview as contradicting earlier statements surrounding the Smyth trade. The pattern of previous Oiler star players leaving the team cannot be ignored. Weight money, or Cujo money wasn’t available. It was spread through the entire team. Those player moves–and several others–were purely financial decisions. Not for Symth.
Good stuff mudcrutch.
So, as only a fool could dispute, the trading of Smyth was a financial decision (let me be the first to offer a congratulatory “no shit!”, by the way). What to do now?
Should’ve known… I pop my head back in to the Oilogosphere, and Vic wastes no time slapping me with the “fool” label. Way to live up to expectations Vic. Your tolerance for other opinions is astoundingly consistent.
LW – Shanahan, Gelinas, Friesen, Ekman, Niemenen
C – Forsberg, Yashin, Peca, Allison, Lindros, M.York, Linden, Rasmussen, M.Smith. Lundmark
RW – Selanne, M.Johnson, Hall, Amonte, Drake, Bulis, O’Neill
D – Souray, D.Markov, Vaananen, Vishnevski, Ozolinsh, Berard, Sopel, A.Miller, Robidas, Sutton, Cullimore, Klemm, Niinimaa, Melichar, B.Ferrence, Breisbois
G – Belfour, Joseph, Aebischer, Markkanen, Auld, Dunham, Aubin
What to do now? Me, personally, I’m hoping that Nichols fires him. I know that Cal and all his buddies are old cheap lying vaginas but what Lowe has done here is issue a cry for help. He’s letting everyone know that he’s getting ready to hand out an offer sheet and LT might have been the first one to say this but everyone with a clue, all those who thought Smyth wasn’t worth the money take a step back please, knows that there isn’t an offer sheet out there that gets us back to the playoffs in either of the next two seasons. The Oilers right now are fucked until at least 2010 but Kevin could make it even worse and it’s time for Nichols to step in and fire him. Lowe’s practically begging for it at this point. He’s making a monkey of himself and the org in the press and it’s time for a new face and voice to try and hustle players into coming here.
As for what the new GM can do? Well he’s gonna have to try and extend Horc and Stoll’s Oilers careers and he’s gonna have to hope that Hemsky sticks it out. He’s also gotta keep an eye out for when the right time might be to deal off Pisani and he’s gotta hope that Smid isn’t Fool’s Gold. He’ll need Cogs to develop offensively and he’ll need one of Nilsson or Schremp to shock the shit out of everyone. And he’s also gonna need to do well with the nice picks that the Oilers suckage will afford him in ‘08 and ‘09. No going off the board for Plante, Nash and some kid from The Shire that was loved by Kenta. We need some real players.
And we also need Lowe to be fired.
What to do now?
- Let other teams overpay for UFAs. Ignore most of ‘em.
- Develop players, and *keep* the diamonds (something that wasn’t possible under the old CBA).
- Leave some room each year to be active at the trade deadline (again, something that wasn’t possible under the old CBA).
- RFA offer sheets when necessary to keep the other teams honest (i.e. if the Rangers, Flyers etc. go up to the cap, make a play for their young guys…force their hand). NOT this summer though. As Lowetide pointed out, next year’s draft is too valuable.
- keep a reasonable handle on where the cap is going (Howson dropped the ball on that one…). This year’s FA market was driven largely by the 5 million dollar cap increase.
Lowe’s mistake was planning as though the Oilers only problem landing UFAs before was throwing enough money around. Obviously it’s more than that (at this point anyway).
That said, while Calgary and San Jose management are getting credit for signing Iginla, Regher, and Thornton, there’s another aspect that’s lost. Those players each took a “discount”. By the trade deadline, that option was apparently off the table (it’s not like they sent Smyth packing without offering a significant deal).
As important as anything, lose the drama. Difficult to do when it’s dropped in your lap (ala CFP). Easier to do in regards to team owners flipping their mouths off, sounding anti-player.
Main thing is they have to work at changing player’s perceptions of this team (thanks in large part to CFP).
Better than any plan, hope that a Katz offer is accepted. Nothing would work better at changing the players’ perception of this team than a change in ownership.
My .02 anyway.
I love the way the reaction to “I was wrong” is “YOU FUCKING MORON”.
You wonder why every GM in the league needs to lie through their teeth. Because all of you hate it when they tell the truth.
Well, explain to me how we all knew the cap was going to go up, and that $5.5 million was going to be a pretty decent price, and he didn’t? The evidence is pretty damning.
Needs to lie? Bullshit, LB. We’re not mad because he told the truth. We’re mad because he didn’t tell, or know, the truth in the first place.
Just guessing here, but wouldn’t cap details and forecasts be the responsibility of the team capologist… If so, it wasn’t Lowe that missed it. If not, what were they paying the capologist for? Use some common sense people. You can’t blame Lowe for everything.
capologist? why is everything craig simpson’s fault?
You can’t blame Lowe for everything.
You are blaming a “capologist”? Shouldn’t the GM a) be in charge of said phantom, and b) be getting reports from him/her/it?
What’s a capologist? I read “crapologist” and figured that was the entire front office’s second job.
Obviously, cap risk is the single most important operational constraint that the team has. The GM, if not accountable for the cap status, has no other job.
Yeah, the GM is ultimately accountable. Point is, Howson, the AGM was around at the trade deadline, and was widely attributed to be the team’s “capologist”. If the Oil missed the fact it was going up to 50, that rests on Howson’s doorstep. Supposedly with Howson’s departure, capologist is a hole in the Oiler’s management team (i.e. they have other hockey guys that could fill the AGM role, but no one is as comfortable with all the cap stuff as Howson was). If he missed the boat on the cap going up, then it’s not as big a hole as everyone was making out.
Why are you guys are acting like I made up the term capologist?
Why are you guys are acting like I made up the term capologist?
Because it isn’t a word, and I like teasing you.
In that case, I’m trademarking it. Capologist(tm). Woot! Just send the royalties to Capologists Are People Too, P.O Box 50,000,000, Edmonton, AB, H0W 5O7. Uh, just a sec…no dice? D’oh. Given the current housing market, royalties would be have been Awesome(r). Oh well.
GOILERS(tm)
non-sense
your interpretation here is totally off base
Lowe assumes cap is (___)
Believes Ryan Smyth is worth a certain percentage in said cap based on his alue as a hockey player
HOWEVER Lowe is now saying if he knew cap was (______) he’d have given Smyth more because the percentage would’ve been lower and thus more equal to his value
How does that equate to a strict financial call? That’s still a hckey decision
If you merely compare 2006-2007, a year which turned out to be a contract one for Iginla and Smyth, it’s fairly obvious that Iginla’s metrics and performance in nearly all aspects of the game blow Smyth out of the water. This is especially true when considering that Smyth had a career year in shooting percentage and made a grand total of 2 passes all season. The man was obviously pissed at Lowe and wanted to maximize his contractual return at year end, so you can’t really blame him, but then again who among the players stepped forward to even murmur that the loss of Smyth was tough or unfair? I said it prior to his leaving even being a possibility, but Smyth was not beloved in the locker room as he was by the fanbase and there are likely reasons for that. Furthermore, a simple litmus test to determine which player is over-payed is to consider which you would rather have on your team for their prices. Who would you rather have on your team, Iginla at 7 million or Smyth for a mere 750000 less?
The analysis is nice and a very good piece of work, but the sample is obviously flawed in that the three year period includes a career worse year for Iginla and a career best year for Smyth.
Just my two cents.
Jon asked “Who would you rather have on your team, Iginla at 7 million or Smyth for a mere 750000 less?”
The question is, who *could* you have on your team. We could have had Smyth, for $1.5 MM less. The second $750,000 was the hometown discount he would have accepted on Feb. 27 … Lowe pushed the envelope over another $100,000, and the player we *could* have had, was gone.
I think Iginla at $7 MM to Smyth at $5.5 MM is a pretty fair comparison; Smilin’ Jarome is the better player in my eyes, but not *that* much better. Both are — ahem, were — the face of their franchise. Iginla has 9 20-goal seasons, Smyth 8; 6 30-goal seasons to Ryan’s 4. Smytty’s Oilers have won 5 playoff series, Iggy’s Flames 3.
Smyth brings a lot of game, and a whole lot of stuff that doesn’t (quickly) show up in the stats. (See Davide’s excellent post in the next thread, #45 under “Three Contracts”.)
What does show up is this: tied for Oilers scoring lead with Petr Sykora and Ales Hemsky, despite the premature end of his (Oilers) season on Feb 27. Recorded +2 on a team that had a dozen double-digit minuses.
“who among the players stepped forward to even murmur that the loss of Smyth was tough or unfair?”
Who among the players showed any balls whatsoever after the Smyth trade? The whole team completely collapsed, going from borderline respectability to complete laughingstock for the price of a one-way plane ticket to New York. Granted there were other circumstances, but the season didn’t so much hinge on that moment so much as the trap door opened at that moment. It seemed to me his departure had a lot greater impact on the room than his presence did, at least in a negative sense.
I couldn’t understand some parts of this article , but I guess I just need to check some more resources regarding this, because it sounds interesting.