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Funny, I pretty much just posted the same thing over at LT’s site. Needless to say, I agree with this take. Despite the monumentally screwed up schedule, the President’s Trophy winner is quite likely the best team in the league, or at least much closer to it than a given Stanley Cup winner.

One thing to consider though - how much impact does this really have? There’s probably not much difference between 15-20 and 25-30. I’d say drafting aptitude (if there is such a thing) and luck would easily counterbalance that gap. Simply more pulls at the one-armed bandit that is the late first round would close the ground as well.

I think maybe it is a subtle admission by the general managers that playoff hockey is different hockey than regular season hockey.

“I think maybe it is a subtle admission by the general managers that playoff hockey is different hockey than regular season hockey.”

I’m struggling to see the relevance of this point. Though I feel oddly compelled to add to it:

GMs, on the whole, recognize that winter is generally colder than summer.

I don’t understand you guys don’t like about the way the draft currently works?

Isn’t the whole point of the draft to create parity, equalize talent, by giving the worst/least talented teams in the league that year the best prospective players coming eligible for the league next year?

I don’t know if the current draft order does create parity. Does any contending team currently boast 4 or 5 players at the very highest end of the NHL talent pool? Because, if you consider a draft eligble player usually doens’t immediately contribute to winning hockey games, a team with an incredibly bad run can certainly gain access to that high of a number of top end talent through picking high in the draft repeatedly.

The point is, which would you consider a bigger success for your team: Winning the President’s Trophy or the Stanley Cup?

Take the ‘87-88 Oilers as an example. They were easily the best team in the league, but coasted to a third place regular season finish. Why reward them with higher draft pick?

Obscure reference: Is “Colin S.” Fred Durst’s pseudonym?

Riversq:

I think that every single person that we got on board with the scoring chance thing is in a different camp. Either that or they have been legally certified as oblivious.

But let fans be fans. After all, that’s what mudcrutch wants above all else. And at the end of the day … that’s what Dennis wants too.

RiversQ says:

The Oilers traded that pick to get themselves to the Finals in the first place…

I guess this whole concept of luck in the playoffs is pretty hard for people to understand. I’d settle for begrudging acknowledgement at this point.

Teebz replies:

Are you telling me that the Oilers, who outworked Detroit, outworked San Jose, and outworked Anaheim, lucked their way into the Finals? I’ll admit that some of their goals were lucky which, in turn, may have lead to a few wins at most.

But to say that they lucked their way through 15 wins to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals is a little insulting to the players on that Edmonton roster.

They wanted it a little more than their higher-seeded opponents, and went out and did what they had to. What the NHL is now saying is that the Stanley Cup is the trophy for the best team, and you shouldn’t have a lower pick than those that didn’t win.

It wasn’t nearly as lopsided against the Oilers’ as people are making it seem now. The team itself probably played it’s worst last season after the deadline, when on paper it was at it’s best. Had they had average NHL goaltending all last season and had played in the central, I think they could have been bracketed top three. They were, at worst, breaking even on scoring chances in the regular season, and were great on snuffing out rebound chances, and shots against in general.

Sure Detroit carried the play, ecspecially in the first 4 games, but most of that was the very low end of chance quality. Both teams had breaks go their way, but Edmonton got better goaltending.

The Sharks owned the first 2 2/3 of that series, but after that I think the Oilers carried alot of the play. One hit, one brutal goaltending decision, and one phenomenal save tipped the balance.

After that they were good money to take the Ducks, and were against the Canes too until Roloson went down. Still, even then, three saves by Ward on Horcoff is the deal breaker when it all comes down to it.

It’s just isn’t right to throw a slant on the past so the current events fit into a certain paradigm. The Oilers were alot closer to those other teams last April. Chris fucking Pronger makes an exceptional difference.

Would they have been able to make a go of it agianst those team in a beast out of 101? No. But probably due more to organizational depth than anythhing else. Pronger, Horcoff (fatigue probably cost him the split second difference on those goal mouth chances @Carolina), Peca (I’m surprised the man didn’t break 5 games into the first series, because that’s going to be the book on him when his career’s over) and Smyth- those dudes couldn’t continue that pace for a large stretch.

Still, except for a few stretches against Detroit and the Sharks where they faced (and ended up enduring) a barrage of five cent chances, it was in no way the lopsided affair it’s been made out to be now. The team then was alot closer to being a regular contender than people are giving it credit for a year later. And they weren’t on the tail end of that window of opportunity either, which also has been suggested. Having Pronger tied up at 5 million (MAN doesn’t that figure seems like fucking peanuts these days?) offers a team alot more flexibility.

And Tyler, where’s the even handedness gone these days? I used to steal all your stuff last year to tell drunk Canuck fans why the Oilers weren’t dogs in the playoff, yet you’ve all have been for less rational and far too emotional as of late.

And I think if you win the President’s Trophy you should pick last in the draft.

Edmonton was clearly better than its record at the end of last season. In a sense, the Oiler’s playoff performance was more representative of their ability than their regular season performance because of the addition of Roloson. Average goaltending will do that.

So the question is: do you penalize teams that peak at the right time? How much do teams really change within a season? It makes sense to me that October performance should count less than April performance, but should this extend to penalizing a team’s greatest asset, its talent pipeline?

“The Oilers traded that pick to get themselves to the Finals in the first place…”

So did Carolina, they sent their first rounder to St. Louis in the Doug Weight loan. In the end one of those traded picks was going to be #30 overall. If it had been the Oilers it would have been #30 instead of #17. During the finals I was thinking it would be the cherry on top of the Stanley Cup sundae for Doug Risebrough to get stiffed at the end of the day, but alas it wasn’t to be.

Interestingly both finalists’ picks got passed on to third parties: #17 Edmonton to Minnesota to L.A. (Trevor Lewis); #30 Carolina to St. Louis to New Jersey (Matt Corrente).

slipper: I’m not throwing a slant on the past, you can read my posts from every game through the playoff run.

Let’s face facts, if goalposts counted as goals then the Oilers would have lost to the Wings in 5. And the S.J series would have gone to at least a 7th game.

I think that the Oilers weren’t even close to the same team as Detroit, were close to San Jose, would have been a better team than the Ducks if they were healthy, but rode a bizarre streak of good fortune through that series.

In the finals I thought they were near enough even in chances, I think that was the weakest opposition they faced all playoffs, especially after Torres sent Weight and Ward to the infirmary.

You can read through the comments of Dennis and mudcrutch during that time too, not the summations of the series but the comments on individual games. It’s all there.

I remember Dennis eventually wondering out loud if outchancing the bad guys was really even important in the playoffs. He referenced CGYs run in 03/04 if I remember right.

They were a good team, but the talent gap between them and teams like DET, OTT, DAL and CGY was wide. In fairness to them they slayed a dragon of their own in the Wings, but the cards really fell into place when CGY and DAL were upset, and then later OTT.

A shame, it was a glorious opportunity. As Ethan Moreau said at the time, during the S.J series, one that may never come again.

I certainly agree that the gap from 1st to 8th has dropped. Though without running the numbers I’d guess that the odds of, say, Minnesota beating Detroit in a 7 game series is no better than 25%, probably a couple of points less than that.

Could the Wild win that series? Absolutely.

Could the Wild outchance the Wings in that series? Possible, but they’d really need the Gods on their side. Maybe a 5% chance of that happening at the absolute most, as my best guess.

I remember when the Oilers acquired Pronger for Brewer + prospects, that was a very cool day btw. Anyhow, me and speeds talked via PM at OilFans, and not that Brewer was chopped liver, but my guess was that Pronger made a difference of about +15 in goal diff over Brewer on the roster, most of that on the PP. If my memory is right speeds was in the same range. That’s a lot of difference, not “healthy Forsberg difference”, but really significant.

Then when I heard Spector on the radio say that he believed Pronger wanted out, and knowing that the guy just always seems to have the right read on Newport clients, I wasn’t even that bothered. I thought that as good as Pronger is, he was signed to a good deal and his value would never be higher. I thought that the Oilers should be able to get something very good in return.

In the back of my head I was thinking Gaborik, who had gotten nasty in negotiations with Riseborough last time. But then Doug goes out and gets his boyhood hero Demitra and signs the guy.

I was also hoping for maybe Hossa from Atlanta, who looked a bit weak at the back, too strong at the wing, and would probably benefit from moving Kovalchuk off of the PP point to play lower down if Pronger was there.

But Lowe was never in the market for immediate help, Pronger was moved for dodgy youth and picks and the die was cast.

I don’t know how many times, before the season, that I bemoaned that if this wasn’t a rebuild, it was something pretty damn similar. But it was often.

I think it could have been an ‘on the fly’ rebuild if the Oilers had gotten a little bit luckier with health, if Roli had a terrific year, and especially if the team had eased off the pedal in the Smid/Greene development program. But it wasn’t, certainly didn’t help that their schedule was so tough. But hell, even when they had successful stretches it was all at the hands of the gods, they were rarely outplaying anyone.

I don’t know what the budget constraints were for Lowe. Presumably he recognized that the talent gap between the Oilers and Wings/CGY/OTT/BUF etc was still pretty wide even with Pronger. And if he knew that his budget would be dropping relative to those teams as well, then maybe he thought that retooling was the way to go. Hopeful of a playoff berth, but risking it.

I still think that in this era a team can rebuild on the fly without resorting to drilling holes in the foundations and blowing the whole fucking thing to Smithereens. But I seem to be lonely with that thought.

And now with the Smyth non-signing, and the return for him in trade. Well they’re in full blown rebuild country now. And frankly, that’s not what I signed up for. That’s not the way I interpretted the promise of the new CBA to bring.

And the Oilers will sell out the building anyway, even with ticket prices next year that are 25% or so higher than 05/06, or near as dammit to that. So we can bash the EIG for their ethics, tactics and politics, but it’s hard to argue against the business model.

C’est la fucking vie.

It’s not our fault that Pavel D wasn’t healthy for the Wings series but if he was then we would’ve lost. No question about it and yes we got outchanced bigtime in that series.

BUT I thought we bought and paid for our series win over ana and let’s be honest…a lot of guys said the horseshoe was gonna fall out of Cam ward’s ass this season and it did. the Oilers had jussi in goal and still should’ve won that fucking series. anyone else remember the save ward made on Horc in the waning seconds of G1? how about the one on Pisani in G7? seriously that series belonged to the Oilers scoring chances wise.

Back to the det series for a second…the last time I saw the Oilers win a cup was 90 and I didn’t know how to watch the games back then like I do know. i saw the Oilers winning but I didn’t see the things like I do know. even without pavel D the wings had three lines that could score and then they had the cleary 4th line that would work the shit out of you so when babcock had the last change it was just hell to watch. det just worked us over in G1 and 2, no doubt about it. they had more depth and we had two lines that could play at ES but babcock would always end up catching 16’s line and then look the fuck out. G1 in particular was a gongshow. you can talk keeping shots to the outside all you like but that first game was awful. I stayed in and watch the OT until it was over, ie it was a fri night, and then I went to the bar to meet up with my buddies and I told them it was just like the old days when you were hanging on for dear life. then 26 scores that goal in g2 and hold on we’ve got a series.

The Oilers win g5 and come home to take it but det owns us in the first 40 min of G6 and you’re not looking forward to G7. but then something intersting happens. mact gets the 94 line out agianst williams line in the third period and winny makes a good play to keep the puck in and all of a sudden 94 is out there just owning the ice. him and 26 drive the crease and williams gets overexcited and hauls somebody down. cue the oilers PP and 34’s goal and the tide turns.

the SJ series started out odd but after losing the second game I wrote a long post over on IOF where I said things would change once MacT got the last change and they did. that being said toskla gave up a terrible goal to 14 to send G3 into OT and without that where are we? and last going off in G6 the sharks were hitting posts like mad on the PP.

things to consider on a playoff run:

luck and this is tried to health
having the last change and having a coach that knows how to use it
not giving up the shitty goal that a team doesn’t have to work hard for.

You know, now that we’re reminiscing, I distinctly recall welling up in the third period during the third game in the Sharks series. It was a bonafide fan boy moment, like “damn they’ve worked so hard, they’re just in over their heads…”. And just when I was conceding hope, Torres sails over the line on the left side and roof daddies. That his lucky side by the way, if anyone has noticed, when he gets fifteen feet there he’s had some bizarre success.

And Dennis, I agree optically it looked terrible against Detroit at times. I don’t think they could have won any other way on Detroit ice though, other than conceding the perimeter and focus on limiting Z’s and Holmstrem’s and Lang’s chances 15ft in the cone.

Interesting quip by Moreau after gm2 vs. SJ that I remember hearing on Global here in Edmonton, something along the lines of: “Being down 2 is definitely a challenge we’ll grow from, because we see this team as the biggest obstacle we’ll face going forward”. At that point I’d almost written them off so it was odd to see Chopper so resolute on camera. The media scrums were thoroughly entertaining as that series unfolded.

And yeah, there were atleast two goal mouth saves on number ten in the Canes series that I distinctly recall, aswell as on fan on a yawning net by Pisser in game one.

Still until the bomb dropped, things looked positive going forward into the off season. I don’t think KL makes so many poor decisions in the off season. Going from Pronger-Smith-Staios-Spacek-Bergeron-Greene-Ulanov to what they webt with this year is two or three steps backwards. Making contract decisions based on the post season is just dumb. How else can you say it? Soem guy named Tyler called into Gregor last night and suggested in lieu of the team’s contract cost cutting that they may have been better going with Legace at 1 unit and/or pursuing Labarbera in LA, and Jason called him an idiot. The dude was probably the most conversant caller I caught and was laughed at because apparently heady roster moves are only made form a what have you done for me lately mind frame. I thought it was interesting because MC had some shit up on Legace last year that echoed much of the same.

Oh well, atleast Nillson looks alright

Ha, that’s funny. There’s a couple Tylers who I’ve now heard call into that show so I was prepared to chalk it up to coincidence. Maybe a fan.

I think Gregor sent a flunky out ot the payphone to further ridicule you after the fact. Atleast it shows he’s about as immersed in knowledge as the TSN mainpage allows him to be.

“I remember Dennis eventually wondering out loud if outchancing the bad guys was really even important in the playoffs.”

I don’t know what the stats were, or are, for scoring chances; the commentators often mention them during the game (esp. in American broadcasts) but I can never find them published anywhere. Does anybody know a site which records them?

What I did do in the playoffs though, was to simply count up the total shots attempted: shots on goal, missed shots, and shots blocked by the opposition. And the trends were quite remarkable. In the first three series, Oilers opposition attempted at least eight (8) more shots than the Oilers did in EVERY GAME BUT ONE (Game 3 against the Sharks, the triple OT classic where the Oilers finally got to Toskala with the kitchen sink). The average shots attempted per 60 minutes through those 17 games were 64:48 against.

Then in the finals everything changed. Oilers had more shot attempts than Carolina in ALL SEVEN GAMES, an average of 60:50 for. It seemed like during the very-extended-thanks-again-NHL break between the Ducks and ‘Canes series, the Oil forgot about the bend-but-don’t-break-and-kill-’em-on-the-counterattack approach that had won them the Campbell Bowl, and instead tried to carry the play to Carolina.

Didn’t work. The more Oilers shot, the less efficient they got: shooting % dropped from 11.9% in the first three rounds to just 8.0% in the finals. Meanwhile, their opposition’s shooting percentage soared from a measly 7.0% through 3 rounds, to 11.6% in the finals. Some of that obviously is the loss of Roloson, some of it was Carolina played a different style and went for the high percentage shot, but I think the Oilers changed their own style, tried to match Carolina chance for chance, and it cost them.

So I agree with Dennis that outshooting the bad guys is not important, in fact last year it was counterproductive.

Then there’s Pisani’s 29% shooting percentage, and Horcoff’s 18%. Wow, clutch does exist.