• Does Save Percentage Fall as Time Elapses?

    by Tyler Dellow • February 21, 2006 • Uncategorized • 5 Comments

    Time Shots Saves Sv%
    0:05-1:00 13299 12346 0.928
    1:01-2:00 7448 6893 0.925
    2:01-3:00 4580 4218 0.921
    3:01-4:00 2917 2699 0.925
    4:01-5:00 1954 1806 0.924
    5:01-6:00 1220 1127 0.924
    6:01-7:00 800 739 0.924
    7:01-8:00 530 493 0.930
    8:01-9:00 330 294 0.891
    9:01-10:00 197 183 0.929
    10:01-11:00 137 123 0.898
    11:01-12:00 89 85 0.955

    In the comments for ““Changes in Save Percentage As Time Elapses From Past Shot”, Earl Sleek asked how the conventional wisdom that it’s tough not to see shots for a lengthy period holds up. As the numbers show, it isn’t holding up particularly well this season. This data table comes with a few caveats though. First, I just looked at ES shots. Second, the particularly lengthy periods would seem to be probably disproportionately likely to have occurred for the goalies playing behind better teams-their save percentage may be higher (or lower) than the league average. Nevertheless, I’d say that this season at least, if someone were to tell me that he’s detected with the naked eye a difference when the goalie has an extended period without a shot, I’d have serious doubts. There’s the odd dip in there but they seem to be by and large for shots occuring in the smaller samples. Personally, I don’t think I could identify the difference between a .928
    save percentage and a .925 or a .921 just by looking. If this breakdown holds up historically, I’d suspect that this is an instance where the goals on the first shot in a while are just glaringly obvious.

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