These last eight games very well could be Bouwmeester’s last in a Panthers uniform after 470 without a single playoff appearance, and I don’t think anyone will begrudge him that decision. But you already know the naysayers are on the way, and that Martin’s decision March 4 to roll the dice and go with the group he’s got is about to be criticized by pundits everywhere.
He gambled big, hoping for the best from a group likely two or three years away from a real chance, and it looks like it’ll cost them.
James Mirtle, From the Rink
The Panthers currently sit two points out of a playoff spot, with most of the teams above them having games in hand. With that said, I can’t buy James’ statement that Martin “gambled big”. Here are the pre and post deadline records for the teams in the playoff race in the East.
Trade Deadline Post-Trade Deadline
GP W L T P GP W L T P
Montreal 63 34 22 7 75 10 3 5 2 8
Florida 64 33 23 8 74 10 2 5 3 7
Pittsburgh 65 33 26 6 72 10 7 1 2 16
New York 64 32 24 8 72 10 7 3 0 14
Carolina 65 33 27 5 71 11 8 1 2 18
Buffalo 63 31 25 7 69 10 4 5 1 9
At the trade deadline, Florida had a 91% chance of making the playoffs, according to www.sportsclubstats.com. What’s killed the Panthers isn’t going 2-3-5, it’s going 2-3-5 while three teams below them were playing .700+ hockey.
Was it a big gamble not to trade Bouwmeester? It’s hard to say without knowing what the return. I’ve argued here and elsewhere that one player can’t be expected to make that much of a difference over a small period. Even if Bouwmeester is worth four wins above replacement, which seems like a lot, the Cats would have been giving up one expected win by trading him. Not a huge difference. From a hockey perspective, whatever they turned down probably was more valuable than the rights to Bouwmeester for twenty games.
But, when you’re in a playoff race for the first time in forever and your team is in an iffy hockey market, it gets a little easier to understand the decision not to cash in a guy like Bouwmeester. We don’t know what offers the Panthers had for him (at least I haven’t heard) but it’s hard to criticize a team that looked to be solidly in a playoff spot for failing to wave the white flag on a season, particularly when they haven’t had any success in forever. I don’t know of any research that’s been done in hockey but Baseball Prospectus has estimated the value of a playoff appearance in baseball as being as much as $35MM. The numbers are undoubtedly smaller in hockey and probably more so in bad hockey markets but you can see why the Panthers might have been hesitant to mess around with their playoff chances.
Even the best GM’s sometimes have a move (or a non-move) blow up in their faces. While it’s impossible to say without knowing the return that was available, I have a hard time saying that this was a big gamble or one that the Panthers shouldn’t have made, even if the results are less than they would have hoped.
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