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The Contrarian Goaltender has a good post up on Andy in the playoffs. He makes two interesting points - first, he suggests that Anderson was better in the playoffs but, more interestingly, suggests some other causes.

I’m in a hurry here but just wanted to drop some regular season data on you. I’ve done this by percentage of their Oilres goals scored in given situations between 1980-81 and 1986-87. Take from it what you will.:

Oilers up 4 or more
Anderson - 15%
Gretzky - 18.9%
Kurri - 14.1%
Messier - 14.7%

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Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20729

One of the essential elements of the Glenn Anderson mythology is the belief that he relaxed in the games that didn’t matter and the blowouts. I don’t have a specific quote in mind but I remember hearing during Glennfest discussions about how, when the game was out of hand, guys like Gretzky would be looking to get back at the trough, while Anderson was thousands of miles away, thinking about something completely different. It’s always struck me as being a little fishy but it’s a big part of the Anderson story. I wanted to check it out, so I took a look at one of Anderson’s best years, the 1985-86 season.

I was able to identify 16 Oiler blowouts. My definition of blowout was generous - a four goal win. Here are the games I was able to find:

10/30/85 WIN 3 at EDM 7
11/03/85 TOR 1 at EDM 7
11/08/85 VAN 0 at EDM 13
12/03/85 EDM 8 at LAK 4
2/07/85 MNS 4 at EDM 8
12/20/85 LAK 4 at EDM 9
02/14/86 QUE 2 at EDM 8
02/19/86 TOR 5 at EDM 9
02/26/86 EDM 8 at WIN 2
03/04/86 EDM 6 at VAN 2
03/09/86 EDM 7 at LAK 3
03/14/86 DET 3 at EDM 12
03/18/86 WIN 2 at EDM 6
03/25/86 EDM 7 at DET 2
03/26/86 EDM 8 at PIT 3
04/02/86 VAN 4 at EDM 8

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Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20710

[Part 4 of 4]

   Let’s start with the powerplay. These forwards have played 10 or more minutes with the man advantage in 2008-09:

   Once again Shawn Horcoff leads the way in ice time as well as gross scoring chances. Those of us who screamed for Dustin Penner’s inclusion on the first unit can point to his team-leading rate of PP SC/60 as well as his team-leading +6.70/60 with the man advantage. Of the second-unit guys, Marc Pouliot has an excellent rate of scoring chances while giving up nothing the other way, for the best net ranking on the club. The other second-unit guys — Gagner, Cole, Cogliano, Nilsson — all have both a lower rate of chances generated and a much higher rate of shorthanded chances allowed. Of note is the flat rate of Robbie Schremp: 2 chances for, 2 against in 11 minutes. Not too impressive until you consider both of those chances For went in the net.

   Looking at the segment of game since Dec 5:

   Most of the same trends are apparent here. Hemsky’s performance in relatively few games is particularly solid. Penner has moved up the depth chart and performed well. Pouliot, who ranks third on the team behind just Penner and Hemsky at +6.15/60, really made the most of his half hour over this portion of the schedule, and has by far the best results of any second unit forward, especially on the defensive side of the puck.

   Turning finally to the PK, here are season-to-date results:

   No surprise to see Shawn Horcoff leading the way in ice time. All of the guys who have gotten more than 20 minutes of ice time have similar numbers of SCA, between 35 and 42. However, Erik Cole’s name jumps off the list because of the large number of opportunities he has created in the good end. Cole hasn’t yet produced any shorthanded goals for his efforts, but he has been successful at distracting the other guys from scoring. He has been on the ice for just 1 PPGA all season according to BehindtheNet, and his rate of -1.26/60 leads the team by far. Of the other guys on this list, Marc Pouliot is second at -5.56 in very limited ice, suggesting that he might deserve a shot at a little more action on the PK. The rest range from -6.89 (Cogliano) and down.

   PK results since Dec. 5:

   The PK unit as a whole has cut down on net scoring opportunities allowed; Cole’s seeming ability to drive the play in the good direction has been very apparent in recent games, and shows up here. Andrew Cogliano has also picked it up in an increased role which should make Dennis happy. The bottom guys on the list all show improved results even as their ice time has been cut way back. Meanwhile, Ethan Moreau continues to be a top four PK guy, despite the fact that he is doing a brutal job, bleeding scoring opps and goals against. The captain ranks 94th among 96 NHL forwards with 20+ GP and 2:00+ SH TOI per game with a horrible rating of -11.02/60, and judging by this scoring chance data he’s full value for it.  

  The best news is the improving relationship between the PP and PK. During the first interval the PP was generating a net rate of +23.3 scoring opps per hour, while the PK was bleeding them at the rate of -34.7, fully 50% more. In the second segment that turned around almost completely, to +34.6 on the PP and -31.6 on the PK. The differential on the season is still negative but the gap is closing. And on the scoreboard, the PK, a disaster through the end of 2008, has killed 34 of 39 this month, while the PP has clicked on 6 of 41 opportunities. This saw-off on special teams has allowed the team’s strong play at EV to carry the day, resulting in a 7-3-0 record so far in 2009.

 [Part 3 of 4]

   Here’s a summary of all scoring chances by forwards so far in 2008-09:

   Shawn Horcoff leads the parade in even-strength minutes, and has backed it up by leading the regulars in gross scoring chances, SC/60, and positive differential per 60 at +2.6, just ahead of Ales Hemsky. Among forwards with 100+ minutes, Zack Stortini leads the way with fewest chances allowed per 60 as well as fewest chances for, the ultimate low event player. (QualComp and QualTeam are surely a factor here.)   

   The real head scratcher is Ethan Moreau, who is getting huge minutes while posting The Worst rate of scoring chances Against on the entire club, and the lowest number of chances For among anybody in the top nine forwards. As for differential, seven of those top 9 have a positive number, Nilsson is -0.1, and then there’s Moreau way the hell down at -6.4. (As I write this Don Cherry is waxing ecstatic about Moreau, “[his] kind of guy”) Ethan has his uses, but his record by this and other metrics is downright terrible.

   Turning our attention to the more recent period between Dec 5-Jan 20:

   The improved play of Erik Cole leaps off the page here. Cole was a net -18 in EV SC in the first segment, and +20 this time around. Horcoff and Dustin Penner continued to generate positive results, although it would be interesting to see the breakdown with and without Hemsky. Ales himself missed a ton of ice time in this segment but did well with what he had.  

   Among the bit players the puzzle is Potulny, who posted outstanding numbers in his brief time here, not only in scoring chances but on the scoreboard (+4/-1). Schremp posted similar boxcar numbers in his own four-game trial, but the scoring chance metric exposes him as having the biggest negative rate on the team year to date, whereas Potulny has the biggest positive. He really seemed to click with Gagner and Cole.

   Liam Reddox meanwhile, seemingly bombed his big chance playing with Horcoff and Penner, posting the lowest rate of chances For among any forward with 60+ minutes and the second worst record of chances Against (better than only the consistently-brutal Moreau).

   The other big surprise of this segment was Jason Strudwick posting a +20/-15 mark up front, after being a brutal +49/-77 on the blueline. Expressed as a ratio of SCF:SCA, Strudwick’s rate has more than doubled (!) from 0.64  to 1.33. He and Stortini posted very similar totals on the plus side of the ledger, while their centre Brodziak clearly struggled when lining up with other alternatives.  

 [Part 2 of 4]

   So far this year the Oilers have relied on their Big 4 defencemen to drive the powerplay, with no forwards called into point duty and so little time for the likes of Staios and Smid that I have omitted their tiny numbers from the following. Here are the PP results year to date:

   The big-money guys are carrying the mail in ice time (~70%), and have a substantially higher rate of SC/60. They are also the best at +/- ON/60 as per Behind the Net (Souray +6.40, Visnovsky +5.16, Gilbert +4.19, Grebsehkov +3.93). Some of this would be due to the top two playing on Hemsky’s unit, no doubt.  Overall Souray has posted the best numbers, however in the segment of games Dec 5-Jan 20 Visnovsky has been slightly the better of the two by the scoring chance metric:

   Grebeshkov was clearly the fourth option in the first segment, but has received equal ice to Gilbert in recent weeks. It’s interesting to note that the pairings on the PP were the regular EV pairings for the first several weeks of the season; the subsequent reshuffling at EV has not carried over to the PP. Those early-season pairings are likely paying a dividend on the PP due to familiarity and on-ice communication.

    Turning to the PK, here are the year-to-date results:

   Staios has been the #1 D-man for SH TOI, a puzzling choice considering his terrible record of SCA. When measured on actual minus/60 at BehindtheNet, he is the second worst on the club at -8.71. By far the worst, however, is Visnovsky at -12.06, suggesting that while he has been successful in limiting the number of scoring chances, a high percentage of the ones that he has allowed have wound up in the back of the net. So the situation vis-a-vis Vis is not near as rosy as the above suggests. MacT responded to this in the second segment:

   Visnovsky was used sparingly on the PK, and saved for EV and PP where he excels. Staios, who seemed to spend the first two months in full chase mode on the PK, showed great improvement in this segment, reducing his personal chances allowed rate by about 25% (from 50.5 to 37.7) and his net results by 35% (from -49.2 to -31.6). Presumably the change of partner from Strudwick to Souray had an impact here. Meanwhile, Denis Grebeshkov responded to a greater workload by posting outstanding numbers across the board, including at the good end of the ice. This is reflected in BtN results, where on the season Grebs has the best minus/60 of the six, at -6.06. Mostly generated against the opposition’s second unit, but noteworthy nonetheless. Those who may want to credit Grebeshkov’s partner for driving his EV results take note that Visnovsky has nothing to do with Grebs’ success on the PK. His rate of scoring chances generated is pretty darn decent, slightly lower than Smid which presumably is a fluke of small-number statistics.           

[Part 1 of 4] 

   Dennis has been doing a terrific job counting up scoring chances (SC) throughout the season, and figuring out which Oilers were on the ice when they occurred. He has scored 42 of the 46 games to this point, missing just Nov 29 @STL, Dec 17 @VAN, Dec 26 @VAN, and Jan 9 vs. S.J.

   Scott has been keeping running totals of SC throughout the season. My contribution to the project is to parse those totals by ice time to try to establish a rate that SC occur, for and against, for each player and by each situation. The grunt work is deducting the TOI for the missed games from the season-to-date totals compiled at NHL.com. The fun part is working with the results.

   Since this post is something of a test drive for me (and thanks for the access, Tyler) let’s start by reviewing something already covered in the comments section of Dennis’s CBJ post, namely the results for defencemen at even strength. Here are the totals year-to-date, listed in order of EV TOI:

   I have bolded the team leaders in various categories, and italicized the laggards (significant ice time guys only). Overall, Lubo Visnovsky has been doing the job, leading the club EV TOI, gross SC, and least SCA/60. His partner since Nov 18, Denis Grebeshkov, slightly outstrips him in SCF/60, but Lubo has the best differential. The “second pairing” of Tom Gilbert and Sheldon Souray have a slightly negative net differential, in keeping with their record of having faced the toughest competition. There is a big drop-off to the 5-6-7 grouping of Steve Staios, Ladi Smid, and Jason Strudwick, who have played with and against the weakest players and have been significantly outchanced in the process.

   The second list breaks down the group’s performance since our first summary back in early December. (See the comments section of the Dec 6 @S.J post). Since then the same 6 defenders have played every game in the same three pairings: 

  The ice time has been pretty evenly divided at evens at 13-15 minutes per player over this 19-game segment. Visnovsky still leads the way, and his partner Grebs has moved up to second minutes. That pairing has continued to set the standard in chances generated and net positive differential. In the 19 games under review Grebeshkov posted a +8 GF/GA rating, Visnovsky +6. 

   The Gilbert-Souray pair is well back, generating 3-4 fewer chances per 60 and allowing 2-3 more (against tougher comp). In this period Gilbert posted an even rating, Souray -4.

   The pairing of Staios and Smid has been more stable than anything involving Strudwick, and have actually allowed the fewest SCA overall and per 60, however have generated much less than they have allowed. Nonetheless, in the games under review Smid posted a +3 ranking, Staios +1, so they have kept their heads above water where it matters most.  

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20689

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20675