mc79hockey.com

Pat McLean’s been on an absolute tear lately, writing some great stuff to read. It’s been like reading Bill Simmons, only if Bill Simmons wasn’t a 39 year old frat boy. (I actually went and looked up Simmons’ age, if only because it’s hard for me to believe that Simmons is only a year or two younger). If you’re not a regular reader, check it out.

* * *

A while back, Vic Ferrari commented on something he called a PDO number. A PDO number is a team’s ES S% plus their ESSV%. The idea, and I know that this will make some people uptight, is that there’s a lack of sustainability in that number - if it’s high, it’s going to come down; if it’s low, it’s going to go back up. We’re just past the quarter pole in the NHL, so I thought I’d check out how that idea holds up over the years for which we have information (2003-04 onwards). Here are the twenty best and worst PDO numbers from the first quarter since the 2003-04 season, along with the team results for the remaining three quarters:

Read the rest of this entry »

…a high ranking source within the organization said Thursday that the Oilers will make a trade to try to shake up their lineup before firing their head coach, whose team has struggled out of the gate at 9-10-2 and sits in last place in the Northwest Division.

A veteran Oilers player, who requested anonymity added: “Maybe a trade, then the coach. After this long, a change might be good.”

-Mark Spector, Sportsnet

If there’s one thing I’ve come to realize in the last five or six years of following the Oilers too closely, it’s that coaching is a pretty rotten profession to get into. The baying for MacT’s head has fluctuated over the years but it’s never disappeared. The rationale just shifts as time goes on. This, however, is the first time I can ever remember seeing a player in Edmonton suggest firing the coach, even if he didn’t have the character to do so with his name attached.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I promised that when I got around to logging this game I’d also list the players on ice for the Wings when the scoring chances transpired. I picked this game to get a little more in-depth because it’s a team that has two legitimate scoring lines and it was a home game for the Oilers which meant MacTavish had a say on just who was going up against Datssa and who was taking on Zetterzen. For the sake of making this exercise just a little bit shorter, along with furthering the idea that forwards drive the bus, I’ll just list the forwards that were on ice for the Wings for each chance and I”ll just list them for the chances recorded at evens.

Note: I’ll also take the liberty of abbreviating the names of the Wings players. Folks who turn out to read these posts, Hello Pat!:) know the numbers of the Oilers players and they should know which Wings I’m talking about as well.

Read the rest of this entry »

How has there not yet been a song written about Pronger? I suppose the enormous success of his first season in Anaheim makes it a little trickier, not to mention the fact that Edmonton has basically been a wasteland since, but still…this is fantastic.

1st period:

18:05 cbj two chances 12-89-27

Goal PP edm 14:22 10-27-83-44-77

13:48 cbj 12-89-27-44-77

11:46 cbj 51-28-18-37-71

9:56 edm 13-26-85-44-77

7:50 cbj 10-83-18-24-43

Goal edm 6:46 13-26-85-44-77

5:18 cbj - 10-89-18-24-43

2:48 PP cbj 13-27-44-77

2:01 PP cbj two chances 51-85-24-43

1:02 cbj 10-27-83-37-71

Summary: 10-3 Cbj; 7-2 EV; 3-1 ST

Read the rest of this entry »

1st period:
19:11 Det 89-34-18-44-71

17:06 Det 51-78-46-44-71

14:37 Det 2 man adv 10-43-77

Goal 13:49 PP Det 10-24-37

12:16 Det 10-18-43-44-77

11:12 EDm 12-86-25-37-77

5:18 PP Edm - 2 chances - 12-13-89-37-77

4:28 Det 12-13-34-44-77

3:25 PP Det 34-85-37-77

3:16 PP Det 34-85-37-77

2:47 PP det 10-51-24-43

1:35 det 89-83-18-44-71

:01 PP edm 89-83-26-44-71

Summary: 10-4 Det; 5-1 EV: 5-3 ST

2nd period:

18:42 PP Edm 12-13-78-37-71

18:29 PP edm    ”          ”
Goal 17:00 det 51-34-46-24-43

12:58 det 13-26-85-24-43

10:51 PP Det 13-34-43-77

10:14 ”          ”            ”

10:00 edm 13-78-18-44-71

9:43 edm    “               ”
9:32 edm    “               ”

5:43 Goal Det 13-26-85-44-71

3:19 PP det 34-85-37-77

2:29 PP det 10-51-24-43
Summary: 8-5 det; 3-3 EV; 5-2 ST

3rd period:

19:14 det 89-83-18-37-77

17:13 det 10-12-34-44-71

14:39 edm ”       ”     37-71

13:04 det 10-12-83-37-77

10:29 edm ”        ”          ”
9:56 Goal det 12-78-89-37-77

5:26 PP det 13-85-24-37

5:07 PP det 51-78-44-77

:37 det 12-13-78-14-43

Summary: 7-2 det; 5-2 EV; 2-0 ST

Overall: 25-11 det; 14-6 EV; 11-5 ST

Individual: EV, PP, SH

89 - -4

18 - 3/4

83 - 2/3, -1

12 - 2/5; 4

10- 2/3;     ; -6

34 - -4;      ; -4

85 - 1/2;    ; -4

13 - 4/4; 4; -3

26 - 1/2; 1;

78 - 3/3; 2; -1

51 - -2;    ; -5

46 - -2

QDC: forward edition

Let’s begin to sharpen the knives for Mr. Cole, shall we? Mssrs. Gagner and Pisani put up Strudwicks, this is where you contribute nothing offensively, and Cogliano drove the bus chances wise with some assistment from Pouliot

44 - 3/7; 1 ; -1

71 - 4/5; 3

37 - 3/3; 4; -1

77 - 2/5; 2; -8

24 - -3;    ; -4

43 - -5;    ; -5

QDC: blueline edition

Jason Strudwick looks overexposed as an everyday player and who thought he’d make one pine for Ladislav Smid? Souray had a bad game in metrics other than “stupid number of times you’d pick a PK as a time to cheapshot Tomas Holmstrom” and Gilbert wasn’t exactly the most efficent of penatly killers.

Finally, there aren’t many games where people come out positive when playing a team with two potentially damaging EV scoring lines like the Wings but this game marked the last time in awhile MacT would have Pisani at his disposal to use in matching situations. Let’s see how this plays out.

1st:

18:57 Col 89-83-18-37-77

17:12 Col 13-26-85-24-43

13:16 Goal PP Edm 10-12-78-44-77

12:30 Edm 13-26-85-24-43

12:12 Col 89-83-18-44-71

11:18 Edm 78-46-28-24-43

9:46 Edm 26-23-85-37-77

8:42 Goal Col 10-12-34-44-71

4:45 Col 13-26-85-44-71

4:04 Edm 28-78-46-37-77

2:11 Edm 12-13-34-44-71

2:06 Edm 12-13-34-37-71

1:10 Col 10-12-34-37-71

Summary: 8-6 edm; 7-6 EV; 1-0 ST

Read the rest of this entry »

Oilerland is buffeted by unrest. The coach hates the players. The players probably aren’t too fond of the coach. The fans hate everyone. Ugly, ugly times.

A few favourite whipping boys are getting some extra heat at the moment, including one of my own favourite Oilers, Shawn Horcoff. Here’s an exchange from Lowetide’s game thread last night:

mc79hockey: The EV shooting percentage with Horc on the ice at the moment stinks. Nothing’s going in. They’ve taken 124 shots with Horcoff on the ice and just 6.1% of them have gone in. Horc is piling up the shots - 37 ES shots

Traktor: Horc is getting what he deserves. His contract was a by-product of hard work but now he he just stands around in the offensive zone with his stick 6 feet in the air waiting for 1 timers thinking he’s Heatley. He needs to start crashing the net and getting dirty

mc79hockey: why is he getting so many shots on goal then? I mean, if you’re right, shouldn’t his shots be down?

fake craig mactavish: You really need to look at the quality of shots or that doesn’t mean a great deal. Firing a shot into the the goalies chest protector doesn’t work all that often and that’s what he’s doing.

MacT is starting to call them “muffins”.

As we’re all aware, Horcoff is 1 for 37 at ES this year. Ugly 2.7% ES shooting percentage. Out come all of those who know, deep in their souls, that he’s just not a number one centre. Me, I’m impressed that he’s getting so many shots; he’s coming off shoulder surgery and his ES shooting rate is a career high.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s some good debate at Lowetide’s over MacT’s evisceration of Dustin Penner on a flight to Detroit today. The debate that’s broken out there deals with whether or not MacT is using Penner properly.

Specifically, Penner’s PP TOI is way down this year. He’s no longer playing with Horcoff or Hemsky at ES and, to my recollection, MacT generally shies away from mixing and matching his ES and PP lines, to the extent that he can. Historically, he’s had one line at least that he likes to run out for the PP and maybe the second group is a bit more of a mish mash but he likes to have a line ready to go when the PP is over too.

Read the rest of this entry »

David Cameron, a writer at the fine U.S.S. Mariner, is in some sort of a vote to win a $10K scholarship available to bloggers. On the other side is some guy who has some sort of a connection to Daily Kos which, if I’m understanding this correctly, is some sort of communist political blog that is devouring the internets. Dave contributes to Baseball Prospectus and, notably, wrote a post about Felix Hernandez’ pitch selection (too many fastballs in the first inning) that Hernandez cited as helping him fix his first innings. This sort of thing should be encouraged, lest our favourite teams end up sitting $4.25MM forwards in the press box where they have a fine view of some other guy scoring a goal, screening the goalie on the tying goal with ten seconds left and just generally playing a fine game. Hypothetically.

Obviously, while the proprietors and commenters of sports blogs are a relatively sane and balanced lot, those writing and commenting on political blogs are (generally) dangerously unbalanced. Dave’s problem is particularly acute as, now that the election is over, most of them have absolutely nothing to do while they’re waiting for money to rain from the sky on January 20th. As a result, they’re able to flood the voting. I encourage you to go vote for Dave.

* * *

Hockey content: Here’s a pretty cool story about the Blue Line, an old ‘zine about the Chicago Blackhawks. I remember one of these somehow making its way to my school in the mid-90’s. Funny stuff. Worth reading for the cartoon and Palin picture alone.