mc79hockey.com

This is just a quickie followup to the debate that’s developed in the comments to the previous post.  Bob Stauffer and others have continuously asserted that Lupul is having a good season.  While he’s obviously putting up numbers, I don’t think that, in and of itself, that’s sufficient to suggest that Lowe made a mistake in trading him.  The real question to be asked is whether or not the fact that he’s putting up numbers is evidence of a change in his result level that’s likely to continue - if it’s simply a result of luck, you’d be foolish to use that as evidence against the move, because only a fool thinks that he can predict when the cards will start to run his way.  It strikes me that in order for Lupul’s defenders to have a legitimate case that the loss of Lupul was any sort of a loss to the Oilers, they need to come up with a compelling case that we aren’t seeing a forty game fluke.  In my view, his forty games come with huge flashing red lights suggesting that it’s been a fluke.
465 players have played at least 20 games with an average of more than 10 5v5 minutes per game.  Of those players, Lupul ranks 459th in shots for - shots against, with -9.5/60.  I concocted a bit of a junk stat, shooting percentage when a player is on the ice (Currently Lupul sits at 13.6%)  - his opposition’s shooting percentage when he’s on the ice (8.4% when Lupul is on the ice) and Lupul rates 30th of the 465 players who I’ve identified.  His good year, at ES anyway, relies entirely on the percentages being in his favour.  It’s obvious that this didn’t happen in Edmonton last year.  Inferentially, I doubt that it took place in Anaheim in 2005-06 or I would have expected his +/- to be much higher as I don’t think that Lupul was getting outshot the way that he is this year - the Ducks were a much stronger possession team, spending more time in the other end of the rink.

The difference in this season from Lupul’s prior seasons is also reflected in his shooting percentage.  I don’t have an ES/PP breakdown handy, unfortunately, but it’s interesting to me that his shooting percentage was 9.5% his first year in Anaheim, 9.5% his second, 9.3% in Edmonton and currently sits at 14.3% in Philadelphia.  His big scoring year was built entirely on shot volume - that disappeared in Edmonton last year and hasn’t really reappeared in Philly - again, I don’t have the breakdown handy but eyeballing it, I’d guess his rates are a lot closer to his 2006-07 Edmonton rates than his 2005-06 Anaheim rates when he was one of the most prolific shooters in the NHL.

At the end of the day, the scoreboard is what matters and the guy is putting up big numbers for the time being.  With that said, unless someone can provide a plausible explanation as to why the main effect of his increased confidence seems to be a spike in teamwide and personal shooting percentage, I think it’s awfully tough to, with any seriousness, advance the argument that the evidence of his first forty games in Philadelphia suggests that the Oilers made a mistake in dealing him.

Longtime Oiler fave Joffrey Lupul explained his difficulties playing for Craig MacTavish to NHL.com:

“He was the type of coach that had a couple guys he was really comfortable with and he played them 23, 24 minutes a game,” Lupul said. “The other guys had to scrap it out for the bottom 12 minutes. I never really got into that comfort zone with him. He never really trusted me as far as John Stevens does, as far as penalty killing and four-on-four play and last minutes of periods. It gives you a lot of confidence when you come in and a coach shows that much confidence in you.”

There are really two complaints here: first, that MacT runs a top heavy bench and second that young Lups wasn’t getting the opportunities to build his confidence by killing penalties, playing four on four and playing in the last minute of the period. I have to admit that I was a bit stunned by the comment about the top heavy bench - I’ve always thought that liking a deep bench was something of a MacT trademark, never more noticeable than the Oilers run in 2005-06 when they, you know, beat Lupul’s Ducks in five. The numbers, I think, bear this out.

Read the rest of this entry »

After a restful few days off, it’s back to work for me today. Boxing Day is a fantastic Canadian tradition though, eh? I managed to get some pictures on the walls of my apartment, just 21 months after moving in. I went out and wandered through the sales in Toronto (”Banana Republic: Where Men Shop Together”). I got a portrait done that I’m going to mail to my parents (see left). I posted a poll on Hockey’s Future. I also kicked the old mc79hockey playoff odds machine into gear.

I was prompted to do this by reading Jim Matheson’s review of the season to date (inexplicably titled “Alive and kicking”) that was published in the Journal the other day. One line in particular jumped out at me and made me think that it might be time to check out what the numbers were saying: “Considering where the Oilers were pegged to finish in the pre-season predictions (almost unanimously an also-ran team), how they started (three wins in their first nine after taking their first two of the season), and how many players they had out with injuries at one time, the Oilers are in fair shape.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Per Staples:

For all those who thought giving Ryan Smyth a five-year contract was brilliant idea, I give you Patrick Elias, falling star of this evening’s opponent, the New Jersey Devils.

There is little doubt that Elias has had a great career, but he certainly hasn’t been much of  sniper this year. In 32 games, Elias has six goals, 11 assists, and is -8, which isn’t likely what the Devils had in mind for a guy with a cap hit of $6 million this year, and for the next five years as well.

It could be that Elias is in a slump, or it could be that his career is simply following the trajectory of so many NHL players. After the age of 30, most players no longer perform at peak scoring levels.

Devils 5v5 shooting percentage with Elias on the ice this year?  5.9% (For some perspective, consider that the best goalies will allow a 6.5% shooting percentage over the course of a season.)

Devils 5v5 save percentage with Elias on the ice this year?  .859.  (For some perspective, Brodeur had a .927 ES save percentage last year).

The Devils are outshooting their opposition 29.7 to 18.1 every 60 minutes of ice time that Elias plays, a fabulous ratio.  Of players who’ve played at least 20 games, Elias has the best Corsi number in the non Red Wing division.  The Devils don’t look to run a power versus power setup and I’m not making a comment either way on  his contract but I don’t tihnk that Elias really makes Staples’ case - his underlying numbers look pretty damned good to me.

I do this every now and then and I usually do it for home games because as a MacT supporter, I’m always wondering how he’ll decide to run his bench and if at night’s end it was the correct approach. And, of course, the teams that usually create the most chances are the teams that usually win the most games.

In any case, the biggest divider between folks who count scoring chances is the method by which we determine a chance. I can’t really detail my specfic sniff test but just be assured that there aren’t different rules for different sides and that’s all that matters.

Read the rest of this entry »

I kind of buried the post, but I wanted to do a follow up on my post arguing that the Oilers current hot streak (and implicitly, their somewhat respectable looking record) is a mirage, I took a look at some of the shootout numbers. Frequent Oilogosphere commenter AsiaOil has been the impetus for a couple of these posts and this one is no different. Here’s the comment that triggered this:

I bet you thought that the shootout string could not last at 5-1 right? Not every situation ends in a 50-50 split in the short to medium term. Have you ever considered that the Oilers are just simply good at the shootout? Hemmer, Gagner, Horcoff and Pisani are solid and Garon has been a wall this year. The percentages certainly favor the Oilers - but by how much? How much is luck? How much is skill? You don’t know and neither do I - that’s my point.

I’m bear baiting because the numbers boys are often just a bit too smug about their powers which are clearly quite limited given the basic statistical tools applied and the nature of the game. A lot of the individual analysis you guys do is great and very interesting - but far too simplistic when applied to complex, dynamic situations such as the future performance of an NHL hockey team over a season.

I’ll start by acknowledging that I think that the complexity of forecasting NHL performance when looking at a reasonably sized chunk of the immediate future is entirely overstated by AsiaOil - if you’re really paying attention and looking at the right areas, I suspect that you can get most of the things in the ballpark, most of the time. There’s always going to be randomness but it doesn’t overwhelm the skill, which can be discerned through the results that guys put up. Of course, certain things - injury and goaltender performance in particular - are a lot harder to predict. Those two factors can swing a team pretty wildly in one direction or another.

Read the rest of this entry »

Andy kind of hinted at this at BoA but I suspect that there’s gonna be a change in the pecking order of the Edmonton media if Katz gets the team. The TEAM 1260 has been breaking a lot of the news related to Katz and have played the story pretty even while a lot of the old guard local media have been decidedly anti-Katz. It’d be only human nature for Katz to have noted who was trashing him without real reason over the course of this whole thing and for those people to find their easy access to information change in the event that he gets the team. Terry Jones’ story deserves special mention in this regard:

First of all, what we’re dealing with this time isn’t a hostile take over attempt against a group of the all-time greatest guys in Edmonton history.

There’s every indication that Katz, if not invited back from within, was certainly encouraged by a few major shareholders to learn from some of his major mistakes the first time around and come at this from an entirely different direction.

And this time Katz wasn’t a flim-flam man.

This wasn’t an offer that said one thing but in reality was something else.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re a fan of the Edmonton Oilers, you have to acknowledge that Cal Nichols has done a good job over the course of his leadership of the Edmonton Investors Group. In evaluating guys like him, I think that the question to ask is whether or not the franchise is stronger today than it was when he took it over. David Staples has a fine summary of Nichols’ contribution to the Oilers and the Edmonton Investors Group posted on The Cult of Hockey. I don’t quite share David’s hagiographic views of the man - I think that he’s a very good businessman, with all that entails, both good and bad - but the Oilers are undoubtedly better off than they were as the 1997-98 season wound down and this deal was finalized.

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the commenters over at Lowetide’s dropped the following in a recent thread:

I’m quietly having one big old snicker after another this season watching this team play better than any of our anointed number guru’s calculated possible. You simply cannot add up 20 individual stat charts and pronounce that this is how a TEAM will play - just too many intangibles like injuries, chemistry and luck.

Now, leaving aside the (minor) quibble that the Oilers currently sit 22nd in the NHL and 12th in the Western Conference, this is an asinine statement. As much as the Oilers have been getting the results lately, the underlying numbers stink. I don’t know that they’re playing better than any of the “number gurus” calculated possible so much as they’re getting better results than the number gurus (this one, anyway) thought likely. Those aren’t quite the same thing. Still though, they’ve gone from 7-12-1 to 15-16-2, a record of 8-4-1 in their past 13 games. Let’s look at the numbers during that stretch:

Read the rest of this entry »

Before we get to the point of trying to salvage the season of Steve Staios, let’s deal with the Oilers next game on Thursday night in Detroit. The Oilers sit just two games under .500 and with Curtis Sanford most likely minding the nets for the Canucks come Saturday night in Edmonton, the Oilers are perhaps one shocking win in Detriot away from evening their record.

Of course, it would help if the Oilers were wearing the uniforms of the Chicago Blackhawks. To wit, the Wings are 13-2 at home and both losses have come to the resurgant Hawks. Every other team has been out of luck when playing in Joe Louis Arena so why should things be any different for the Oilers come Thursday night? Well, how about the fact the Oilers are 5-1-1 in their last seven road games and have scored 16 real goals in their last four games away at Rexall? Yes, that doesn’t take into account the fact they also give up a tonne but we’ll get to that later.

Read the rest of this entry »