The state of Georgia has had some trouble over the years in settling on a state flag. With yesterday’s trade of Ilya Kovalchuk, this seems like it would be appropriate. I don’t know that the return is that bad given what the Thrashers had to sell - 25 games of Kovalchuk at a cost of about $2MM - but I’m more than a little surprised that they would do this when the marginal value of standings points is so high for them right now.
There’s a great site called Sports Club Stats that breaks down a team’s probabilities of a playoff appearance. Their odds are based on a club’s play to date and won’t reflect the fact that the Thrashers have just abandoned Kovalchuk. They’ve got the Thrashers at a 37.2% chance of a playoff appearance at the moment.
In calculating their odds, they simulate the remaining season. They determine the probability of a team finishing with a given number of points and, assuming the team achieves that number of points, the probability of a playoff position. I’ve put the meat of their information relating to the Atlanta Thrashers into a graph to illustrate the point I’m driving at here.
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