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May 13th, 2010

This Week in Factchecking

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

“Here is an example of the type of successes that I’ve had,” [new Thrashers GM Rick] Dudley said. “Dan Boyle was a smallish defenseman. Mike Keenan was the coach of Florida and he wouldn’t play him much. I talked to Chuck Fletcher, the interim GM there, and he was very honest. He said our coach won’t play him. I said what do you want for him. He said I don’t know. I said I’ll get back to you. I watched him play seven straight games. He played about three minutes a game. In those three minutes for seven straight games I had to make an evaluation as to whether this guy could help us. I came to the conclusion he could. I had to fight like hell with my bosses in Tampa, but we made the trade for a fifth-round draft pick.

Well, you look at the player now, and I could not have done that on someone else’s say so. That comfort level wouldn’t have been there for a smaller D-man. The natural assumption is that he can’t play for the Florida Panthers so why would you be so excited about this player. The truth is he was in a circumstance. I’m not discrediting the coach. Mike liked big defensemen. He did not like small defensemen. Danny was a smaller defenseman. But I saw enough for our team that I felt comfortable that he could play for us. Those are things you have to do. I don’t know how you do it elsewise. There are GMs that do it [differently] and they are successful. But I don’t know how you rely on someone else’s opinion to build a hockey team. I just don’t.”

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February 5th, 2010

An unfortunate trade

The state of Georgia has had some trouble over the years in settling on a state flag. With yesterday’s trade of Ilya Kovalchuk, this seems like it would be appropriate. I don’t know that the return is that bad given what the Thrashers had to sell - 25 games of Kovalchuk at a cost of about $2MM - but I’m more than a little surprised that they would do this when the marginal value of standings points is so high for them right now.

There’s a great site called Sports Club Stats that breaks down a team’s probabilities of a playoff appearance. Their odds are based on a club’s play to date and won’t reflect the fact that the Thrashers have just abandoned Kovalchuk. They’ve got the Thrashers at a 37.2% chance of a playoff appearance at the moment.

In calculating their odds, they simulate the remaining season. They determine the probability of a team finishing with a given number of points and, assuming the team achieves that number of points, the probability of a playoff position. I’ve put the meat of their information relating to the Atlanta Thrashers into a graph to illustrate the point I’m driving at here.
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