If you haven’t read the first two posts about this, you should do that here and here. If you have, you know that I’m looking at how defencemen did relative to their teams in seasons in which a) they played for one team, b) they played at least 19 minutes a night and c) they played at least 41 games.
I got a ton of requests on Twitter and think I got most of them. Some guys aren’t appropriate because they didn’t play enough or only have a year or two in the bank. Red line above blue line means you do better than your team; blue line over red means you do worse. To the graphs.
I know he was at Team Canada’s camp in Calgary last August; I don’t really see it.
With Boyle leaving San Jose, he strikes me as a guy who might be a great buy for a team with a young defence corps that could hide him a bit at 5v5. His numbers were down this year relative to his team but he had a concussion and, by his account (and in keeping with the finest traditions of pro hockey) came back too soon. He can still play on the PP. His numbers were also very good, it just wasn’t like he was driving the bus.
Nothing to say really. Looks a legit top four guy to me.
There are a couple of Canucks defencemen in here. Those are fine numbers. I’m on record thinking the Canucks are going to bounce back next year. Their defence is part of the reason why – lots of guys with lots of experience who can play.
Still a young guy and I’m sure he’ll put it together soon. Future offensive dynamo, I hear.
I actually found this intriguing enough that it got a second graph. Coburn seems to have kind of come tumbling down the past few years.
When you see this, it’s even weirder. He does better with Timonen than without – no surprise, Timonen can play – but the Flyers have been doing better the past four years, as Coburn’s performance has declined. That’s surprising, absent the competition he plays getting really ramped up. I know the Oilers were looking at him last year; may have been a bullet dodged, absent the quality of opposition he faced having gone way up over the past few years.
I don’t really think Fowler’s joined the elite yet, no matter what USA Hockey thinks.
Another Canuck who looks pretty good to me. Numbers were down this year, but then that happened to a few guys under Tortorella.
New Jersey defencemen terrify me, like all their players, because it seems like they just churn out system players. Could Greene post big numbers elsewhere? Maybe. I wouldn’t want to make that bet though.
Yeah, I don’t really get the Carlson popularity either. His Corsi falls in lockstep with Washington’s.
Erik Johnson’s numbers look a little better than I would have expected. Still pretty disappointing for a first overall pick – you want those guys to move the needle.
I’m going to have to look at some open play numbers for Green, Carlson and Alzner. Washington’s fall back to earth over the past few years has affected all of them, but Green still stands well above the Caps when he’s not on the ice, which isn’t true of the other two.
Letang’s numbers stop in 2011-12 because he doesn’t have enough games after. I can tell you that his numbers in 2013 were very good as well. This year’s set of numbers was poor. Obviously, he had some health challenges this year. If he can get back to where he was, no problem with him as a top pairing defenceman.
Martin’s battled injury as well the past few years. His situation’s a little different – the numbers aren’t really there anymore (after the years on this graph).
I think Niskanen’s pretty intriguing. He had great numbers in 2013 as well and his numbers as a young guy in Dallas weren’t bad either – he got killed by PDO. He may not put up the points for whoever signs him but I bet he still turns out to be a valuable signing.
You can see that, unusually for a no-offence guy, Smid was above water for a few years, albeit on awful teams. If I was a team trying to get something out of him as a 4/5 guy, I’d be sure to have a real puckmover with him. Not optimistic that he’ll age well.
I really do wonder if Staal isn’t an overrated guy too. This year’s spike is, I suspect, attributable to Stralman. They put up a 56.2% Corsi together. Apart, Staal was 48.6%, Stralman at 56.1%.
I kind of feel like Garrison had the year that people think Alex Edler had. This has to be a bit of a worrying thing for the Canucks and something that they’ll need to fix if they’re to become a playoff team again next year.
Update: I thought I’d included Gilbert earlier – turned out I’d made the chart but not included it. Here he email@example.com