Last year I outlined how I break things at 5v5 into pieces following faceoffs depending on location and whether they were won or lost. For defensive zone faceoff losses, it’s 37 seconds – that’s how long it takes for the effect of a defensive zone faceoff loss to wash out of the data. I ran the numbers tonight for this year’s Oilers.
League average for this stat is around 25% or so. Overall, the Oilers were at about 23.9% and they improved as the year went on – they were 24.3% in the second half of the year. This area isn’t really a big problem for them; all things told, they do ok after they lose defensive zone faceoffs, crazy as it might sound. The individual numbers are fun though:
Saying that Luke Gazdic isn’t a very good hockey player is, to a large degree, not so much picking low hanging fruit as it is lying on the ground with your mouth open while someone else plucks low hanging fruit and places it in your mouth. At the same time: holy lord. His Corsi% in these situations is 14 points worse than the next guy. I have no words to describe it. In fairness to him, some of the gap may be due to him changing the instant that the puck comes out – that would get you off the ice before any SAF happened – but the rate at which the Oilers bleed shot attempts when he’s out there for a DZ faceoff loss is still astronomical.
I have no idea how people in Edmonton are saying things like “He doesn’t hurt you” or describing him as a better player than Georges Laraque. To me, he just completely and utterly fails the eye test and then you look at the numbers and they’re even worse. When the opposition gets the puck in the Oilers end, they just move around him at will. He is not remotely close to the largest problem that they have but he’s probably the easiest to fix.
Update: Unsurprisingly, this is a new record for someone with that many draws.Email Tyler Dellow at firstname.lastname@example.org