• Ben Scrivens, Puck Magnet (Multiple Meanings)

    by  • March 29, 2014 • Hockey • 13 Comments

    Since 1987-88, there have been 268 NHL games in which one team got 50+ shots. There have been 29,172 regular season games in that time, so we double that to account for there being two teams in each game. That’s 58,344 games. This happens about once every 217 games.

    Since Ben Scrivens was traded to the Oilers, he’s played in 16 games. He’s started fifteen times. He has seen 50+ shots in three of those games. Once every 5.33 games in which he’s played, he’s seen 50+ shots. The Oilers have been about 41 times more likely to give up 50+ shots in a Scrivens start than the NHL average since 1987-88.


    Email Tyler Dellow at tyler@mc79hockey.com


    13 Responses to Ben Scrivens, Puck Magnet (Multiple Meanings)

    1. Artv
      March 29, 2014 at

      Do you even have the slightest clue what “sample size” means?
      And you expect to peddle your analytics nonsense to actual NHL executives?

      • highgloveside
        March 29, 2014 at

        In case you did not notice, Tyler was strictly stating the facts on how many shots Scrivens has been facing and how actually rare that happens in the NHL. He did not make any conclusions, say this makes Scrivens the best goalie ever or even conclude that Scrivens should be prepared for this trend to continue. It is simply a very interesting fact that over the last 15 games Scrivens has faced over 50 shots 41 times more than the NHL average.

        If you are simply going to take shots at the posts without adding and quality contibution, you should stick to those other sites where attacking others is the theme.

      • Marcus
        March 29, 2014 at

        Yeah – this comment doesn’t strike me as very smart. He established the historical sample size and then made the point that the Oilers have been very very bad in the last few months.

    2. blainer
      March 29, 2014 at


      If you are not a believer in Tylers analytics what are you doing visiting this site. Tyler is well respected for doing a lot of hard work and research. I personally find his analytics very helpful and with any luck his blogs may help open some eyes in oilers management. God knows they can use as much help as they can get. Keep up the good work Tyler

    3. Jim Woollett
      March 29, 2014 at

      Sample size? That is funny, seeing that as a response here. 58,344 discrete observations in the population isn’t enough for you? Tough crowd!

      It is difficult to comprehend how exceptionally poor the Oiler’s record of performance has been in comparison to the average. Where I work, students get a letter from the Dean and an invitation to speak to career counselling before they get so far down the line. Luckily for the team, Scrivens seems dauntless so far.

      • Bruce McCurdy
        March 29, 2014 at

        Interesting to note those were all home games, as the Oil continue to get their show run in Rexall. Sharks, Kings, Ducks, anybody else see a pattern?

        • Trentent
          March 29, 2014 at

          Score effects for San Jose/Ducks? Maybe when they sit back they REALLY sit back. Eakins defensive system?

    4. godot10
      March 29, 2014 at

      Eakins has stolen Randy Carlyle’s mojo! -).

    5. Dan
      March 30, 2014 at

      Analytics have their place and there is interest but still how do teams use the information to get better what is the answer to that? Thanks Tyler for all your work great stuff.

    6. Bank Shot
      March 30, 2014 at

      It’s too bad he isn’t getting paid per save. He’d be doing the back stroke in a vault full of gold by now.

    7. StatsGoon
      March 31, 2014 at

      Is 268 actually the proper number to use? I suspect many of those games with 50+ shots involved goalie changes (as the starting goalie likely let in several goals). So if you are looking for the proportion of games where a single goalie faced 50+ shots, it is likely substantially less than once every 217 games, making it even more rare what is happening to Scrivens.

      • Tim James
        March 31, 2014 at

        Actually, you’d be surprised to find that rarely in blowouts (in which goalies get changed) does the winning team take a lot of shots. More often than not (I can’t offer raw statistics but have been watching the game for 40+ years and have an excellent memory), the team racking up all the shots actually loses the games (twice in the three Scrivens games referenced above, Edmonton won). Just an example, the LA Kings: team record for shots in a game, 59 vs. a terrible San Jose team in 1993; the Kings lose, 7-2. Most shots against: 69 vs. Minnesota in 1981; Kings won 3-2. I am not sure what that does to the numbers, but I thought I would point it out.

    8. Scrivy
      April 1, 2014 at

      We’re lucky to have you analyzing the Oilers. At least someone with brains is analyzing the Oilers progress. The Oilers GM would do well to moneypuck you right into the role played by that fatter fellow in the movie Moneyball.

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