Neither Colby Cosh nor a commenter going by the name Bank Shot were too impressed with my argument that Devan Dubnyk’s probably going to be ok.
Cosh (I’m aggregating some tweets here):
Still think message of McHockey’s table is “A majority of goalies who are THIS bad even briefly are on their way out”
If the signal were totally meaningless, your filter would have yielded a *random* mix of goalies, including some excellent ones
(Dubnyk) just… did something that’s overwhelmingly characteristic of the sick, aged, and doomed?
B) What do you make of the fact that this has only happened to 5 goalies under the age of 30. And 4 of those goalies are not starters? Does this say something about the company Dubnyk is in?
Why hasn’t it happened to guys like Price, Fleury, or Ward who have played perhaps double the games of most of these goalies in the same time frame?
The criteria I used for this, comparing goalies to their career norms once they had faced 3,000 shots is kind of problematic, in that it means that my focus on goalies who saw a save percentage at least 80 points below the norm was kind of impacted due to the low save percentages of the immediate post-lockout II period. For a guy like Fleury, who got lit up for a while post-lockout, his career save percentage is lower than someone like Dubnyk’s. This makes it harder for Fleury to have a bad stretch that met my standards, because the save percentage is higher now but he built his career save percentage, in part, in a lower save percentage era.
One of the things I drew some comfort with in respect of Dubnyk as the season began was how good his numbers have been relative to goalies who’ve played 100 games over the past three years. Here’s a piece of that table:
What if we asked ourselves what the worst four game stretches during the past three seasons from the goalies between .910 and .920 on that list look like? Do they look like what Dubnyk’s struggled through (111 SA, 92 GA, .829 SV%)?
You can draw your own conclusions but I’ve yet to see anyone produce a sensible argument that Dubnyk’s start tells us anything. The point that Cosh and Bank Shot raised was fair but these sorts of things happen, even to good goalies.Email Tyler Dellow at firstname.lastname@example.org