• More Hall/MPS

    by  • September 28, 2010 • Uncategorized • 93 Comments

    Update below.

    This is getting trashed all over the internet, which makes me think it’s more likely that it’s right. Oilers fans would do well, I think, to start having a relationship with their hockey stars that’s somewhat more sophisticated than that of a 14 year old boy who is at his girlfriend’s beck and call until she breaks up with him, at which point he tells people that she’s a slut. Our collective relationship with Taylor Hall and MPS is a business transaction, not a romance. The Oilers will funnel our money to them and, assuming things go well, they’ll provide us with Happy Hockey Moments. They will accept certain things that they might not like, provided that they’re happy with what they’re getting from the relationship as a whole.

    A point that I should have made in the previous post but failed to: five of the past six Stanley Cup Champions have done so with significant contributions from players on entry level contracts. Chicago had Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. Pittsburgh had Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal. Anaheim had Ryan Getzlaf and Cory Perry. Carolina had Eric Staal and Cam Ward. Detroit, the lone exclusion, had one of the best defencemen of all time as well as Henrik Zetterberg making about $2.5MM, which isn’t much more than an ELC.

    It’s worth noting that, as soon as those teams had to start paying fair market value for those players, they took a significant standings hit, surpassed by teams that were sucking at the teat of CBA controlled contracts. We’ve all seen what happened in Chicago over the past summer as the Blackhawks had to deal with finding an extra $15MM to pay Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith for next year. Pittsburgh had to find an extra $11MM to pay Jordan Staal and Evgeni Malkin after they won the Cup. Detroit, by 2009-10, was spending $10MM more on Zetterberg, Cleary, Fillipula and Franzen than they did in 2007-08. Anaheim was spending an extra $9MM on Getzlaf and Perry by 2008-09. Carolina is currently spending about $12.75MM more now than they did in 2005-06 on Cam Ward and Eric Staal.

    Winning the Stanley Cup isn’t rocket science: you do it by spending your money better than everyone else and getting lucky. Really good young players provide you with outrageous value, which you can then turn into something else. My worry, when I listen to Steve Tambellini drone on his lobotomized monotone, is that he and the rest of the Oilers braintrust still thinks that this is the 1990′s, when you could do what Ottawa did and gather a bunch of players together, suffer through the growing pains and then reap the benefit of a team that runs roughshod over the league (as the Sens did) for the next seven or eight years. The NHL no longer works that way. Teams that try to do it that way will find that a window they never even knew was open has already closed. Giving away a very real and concrete advantage in 2013-14 because of fears of vague and uncertain consequences strikes me as foolish.

    Update: Just looking at the HF discussion of this, most of which is a trainwreck of nonsense, I see the following point made by Injektilo:

    …the idea that staying in junior (for Hall) harms his development seems to be undetermined. I can’t think of anyone who was expected to kick ass, was forced to stay down in the minors a while longer, and then suffered when they came to the NHL. Like I said though, there’s the whole 2003 draft class to consider, guys who were forced to spend an extra year of development during the lockout. Didn’t seem to harm them.

    That is, I think, an excellent point. While it’s debateable as to whether any of the players who were forced to spend their age 19 season in junior were in Hall’s class, with the exception of Staal and Horton, some very good players played an extra two years of junior after they were drafted and have gone on to have fine careers. Is Taylor Hall now that much better than guys like Carter, Richards, Phaneuf, Brown and Perry were when they were a year past their draft age?

    About

    93 Responses to More Hall/MPS

    1. PunjabiOil
      September 28, 2010 at

      I think you’re being far, far simplistic. Teams like Chicago, Anaheim, Carolina, and Pittsburgh won cups beyond reasons relating to the entry level contracts.

      1. Chicago – Sharp, Hossa, and other depth forwards (Dustin B., Veersteeg, etc.) played large roles. Keep in mind Campbell and Huet accounted for over 13M in cap space, yet were redundant assets on the Chicago team. The impact of Taylor Hall’s cap hit going from 3.75M to 7.75M in 3 years wouldn’t necessarily hurt the Oilers as long as they manage money efficiently.

      2. Anaheim – Burke made some good trades and signings here. Pronger, Neidermayer, Selanne, MacDonald, Pahlsson, Penner, etc. Coming off the lockout, with uncertainty surrounding their future, with a rising salary cap, guys like Selanne and Pronger were underpaid – this has just as much to do with the ELC on Getzlaf and Perry.

      3. Malkin and Crosby. Arguably the top 2 centres in the game. As far as I know, they will still be contenders for the Stanley Cup over the next 4 years – length remaining on their contracts.

      4. Carolina Hurricanes – Ray Whitney value contract was significant. Other factors include plain dumb luck – Buffalo loses 3-4 defenceman for game 7, and lose the series. Matt Greene is a bundle of suck, contributing to Roloson’s injury.

      Taylor Hall turns 19 in November. He’s proven and dominated into the NHL – while staying in the OHL may not hurt his development, is there a legitimate reason to send him back to junior other than extending the ELC one year?

      The Oilers have relatively took it easy on their young talent lately. Eberle was fantastic last year around, but the Oilers sent him back to Regina as he had not dominated that league. He was doing well in the AHL last year, possibly warranting a call up – but was not called up. Renney has suggested Petry dominate at the AHL level before moving up to the bigs.

      The Hall’s and MPS’s are rare prospects. You cannot simply compare them to Detroit or NJ’s model.

      I’ll also post the same message as I did in the other thread – since the content hasn’t really changed

      Don’t do that. It’s obnoxious.

    2. Quain
      September 28, 2010 at

      I don’t get the point of that response. Tyler’s thesis is that players on ELC free up money for other players. Your response is that the Cup teams had a lot of other good players aside from those guys on the ELCs… there’s a connection there.

    3. Buddha Pest
      September 28, 2010 at

      “Winning the Stanley Cup isn’t rocket science”

      If this statement were true, then teams like the Sharks, Capitals, and the Sens (circa 1999 to 2004) would have at least one Cup win in recent years.

      The beauty of the NHL (and most other professional sports leagues) is that it does take more than a big wallet and luck to win a championship. Just ask teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and the New Orleans Saints what it takes.

      You need the right mix of players, career years from a lot of those players, depth at positions, great coaching, and yes, luck. And, just as importantly, or more importantly, you need a great braintrust that puts the right mix of players and coaches together.

      I will agree with you that “a window they never even knew was open has already closed” and if the Oilers believe that the only path to a championship is to let the kids play and stockpile a couple more young guns over the next couple of years, their window of opportunity (2011-2012, 2012-2013, or 2013-2014) may close before they knew it was open.

      Are the Oilers doing the right thing if Hall, MPS, and Eberle play here all year? Who knows? I don’t think anyone can say that Chicago made a mistake with Kane or that TB made a mistake with Stamkos, or that LA made a mistake with Doughty.

      On the other hand, if the Isles never win a cup with Tavares or if the Avs never win a cup with Duchene, will the pundits say that it was a mistake bringing those guys in right away?

      The real test for Tambo et al. is to figure out what the Oilers are right now and try to build a team like the Hawks or see it all slip away like the Sens (circa 1999-2004).

    4. R O
      September 28, 2010 at

      He’s proven and dominated into the NHL

      Why do you keep saying this?

    5. R O
      September 28, 2010 at

      career years from a lot of those players

      Luck

      depth at positions

      Spending your money better

      right mix of players

      Either another term for “depth”, or psychobabble.

      great coaching

      “Show me a good system and I’ll show you a good goaltender”. Who said that again?

    6. R O
      September 28, 2010 at

      This is getting trashed all over the internet, which makes me think it’s more likely that it’s right

      I have this rule of thumb, in Calgary, that if two of the Eric Francis, Eric Duhatschek and Rob Kerr think that an idea is sound, then in fact the opposite idea is closer to the truth.

      Must work for the Oil as well.

    7. September 28, 2010 at

      She is a slut, though.

    8. Tyler Dellow
      September 28, 2010 at

      If this statement were true, then teams like the Sharks, Capitals, and the Sens (circa 1999 to 2004) would have at least one Cup win in recent years.

      That’s a fair point. I might amend it to “Putting yourself in a position to win the Stanley Cup if the hockey gods favour you isn’t rocket science.”

    9. Julian
      September 28, 2010 at

      I think you already mentioned that by saying “…and getting lucky”.

      Luck obviuosly plays a huge role, I don’t know how anyone can deny that. You make your team as good as possible, and the better your team is, the less luck you need. Doesn’t mean you still don’t need some of it though.

    10. September 28, 2010 at

      She is a slut, though.

      Topic over.

      I was actually going to post earlier tonight on the previous thread about how Earl Sleek has been talking for 3 years now about how the ELC’s that Getzlaf and Perry (don’t forget McDonald. Kunitz, and Penner too!) were a massive boon to that Anaheim team – 5 top-6 forwards that were huge bargains that year. That kind of value allows you to acquire shorter term projects to shore up your forward or defensive depth for the duration of the ELC’s – basically you’re loading for bear for a year or two when you’re going to have all the stars (contracts) align. You can’t buy yourself a Cup, but you can damn sure buy a pretty good chance. And if you’re smart, you can even do it without mismanaging your way into salary cap Armageddon like Chicago did.

    11. Vince
      September 28, 2010 at

      its’ MPS i’m talking about…if you sign an elc a year before you can re-enter the draft you’ve probably already asked the question “if I play well enough at camp to make the team there a spot for me?” …a question that deserves an honest answer….with what you’re proposing the honest answer would have been “well we’d rather have you sign your second contract in 4 years rather than 3; however we’re dumping half our roster this summer so your spot is going to taken by a tweener on 1yr two way deal…..sign here please”

      As for Hall I’m no CBA expert but I think it’ common knowledge that players don’t re-enter the draft after one year etc…as to whether he belongs on the Oilers this year is a matter of opinion, I’m of the belief that if an 18yr old has nothing left prove in junior but the big club wants him to get more seasoning he should have a friggin’ place to play…

    12. Julian
      September 28, 2010 at

      I don’t think anyone can say that Chicago made a mistake with Kane

      Like I said in the previous thread, Kane’s ELC expired this year, so his cap hit jumps from 3.7M to 6.5M. Cap space the Hawks could have used this summer.

      Sure they won the Cup, but was Pat Kane’s 18 year old season in the NHL really the key to their victory?

    13. September 28, 2010 at

      PJO, but it’s not just Hall’s contract. It’s Magnus Pajjarvi (did I get that correct modulo accents?) and Jordan Eberle as well. If they all get some bumps, you’re talking in 3 years not a 4MM bump, but maybe a 10MM bump. Also, I like Gilbert and all, but I don’t think he can carry a 1-2 pairing; the Oilers are badly missing a top-flight defenceman, especially in 3 years. Maybe one of the current crop of kids steps up – great, somebody else to pay – or they need to be good and lucky enough to load up like Anaheim did, adding Pronger to Niedermayer. They’re also short a goalie unless one of the current three kids steps up. Lowe help Tambellini if it’s Olivier Roy – there’s another ELC.

      Like Tyler said – it’s possible the Oilers will have a window close that they never knew was open.

    14. Tom
      September 28, 2010 at

      Agree or disagree, I think it’s great that this is a discussion that’s finally taking place.

    15. godot10
      September 28, 2010 at

      If one delays Hall or Paajarvi for non-hockey and merely cap management issues, you almost guarentee losing Hemsky and Penner.

      Remember they both have to be extended next summer.

      You need the overlap this year to convince them of the potential of the team in Edmonton, and to get them to accept a modest discount to be part of that potential.

      You are focusing on the trees, instead of the forest. Look at it in the context of the enitire roster.

      If the Oilers are forced to trade Hemsky and Penner next summer (so as to not lose them as UFA the year after), and to maximize their trade value), what is “gained” cap management wise delaying Hall and Paajarvi if Hemsky and Penner are gone?

      Hemsky and Penner also command the attention of the opposition, which makes it easier for Hall and Paajarvi to break into the NHL.

    16. Julian
      September 28, 2010 at

      If one delays Hall or Paajarvi for non-hockey and merely cap management issues, you almost guarentee losing Hemsky and Penner.

      Remember they both have to be extended next summer.

      You need the overlap this year to convince them of the potential of the team in Edmonton, and to get them to accept a modest discount to be part of that potential.

      Almost guarantee? Seriously?

      I never understand how fans can seem to know the inner workings of not only the entire team but even the thought process of players they’ve never met, and have only experienced through a fairly tightly controlled media lens.

      How can you possibly claim to know how Penner and Hemsky would react to that? Isn’t it entirely possible that they are rational beings who realize that the Oilers WILL have MPS and Hall on the roster in three years time which is when they’ll actually be concerned about where they’re playing?

      Isn’t it possible that their primary concerns at that time will be more along the lines of, say, how much they’ll get paid? Or how much they like living in Edmonton? Or how close they are to thinking the Oilers are competitive? I mean, rather than “hey, how was is that the Oilers treated Hall and MPS last year? Oh yeah… man, fuck these guys, I’m outta here”.

      I mean, which concerns are likely to be primary in their minds?

    17. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      godot10, they may need to be extended next summer but what happens in 3 years when those 2 are extended and you have potentially 4 good young forwards who need new contracts?

      What about Gagner as well?

      This team needs to decide when it will be ready to compete. If it isn’t now, then make decisions based on that.

      The point isn’t just send them down to save their contracts for a year. The point is to send them down because we don’t need their contracts this year.

      If this was 2005-2006 and the Oilers had just traded for Peca and Pronger they’d probably be better off keeping these kids. At that point they could use their contracts.

      Right now though, the Oilers gain almost nothing out of it.

    18. JeffJ
      September 28, 2010 at

      Just to pile on, despite the fact that PJO’s reply has already been thoroughly refuted by other comments:

      The better your team, the better your shot at winning the cup. The better your contracts, the better your team. The most obvious way to get good contracts is to have good players on their ELCs. Those are low risk, high reward contracts.

      Of course, there are are other ways to get bang for your buck but they’re often high-risk or not accessible for everyone:
      - Hometown discounts, like the Sedins. To do this you have to have good homegrown players to start with.
      - Reclamation or other special projects. High risk. I.e. Avery, Poti, maybe Simon Gagne. Bryan Berard. See Bertuzzi for the downside.
      - Gambling on players of uncertain value. High risk. Brunnstrom, Gustavsson, many goalies might fall into this category.
      - Drafting players who might be worth more than the individual player ceiling like Crosby or Ovechkin. Dumb luck.
      - Contract shenanigans. See Lou Lamoriello.

    19. September 28, 2010 at

      Im pretty surprised this is so controversial.

      The Oilers are going to suck this year. With Hall and MPS or without them. Might as well defer their value seasons for when they’ll be better players. Aside form marketing and appeasing to a discontent fanbase, there isn’t much to gain.

    20. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      I don’t get the point of that response. Tyler’s thesis is that players on ELC free up money for other players. Your response is that the Cup teams had a lot of other good players aside from those guys on the ELCs… there’s a connection there.

      It’s far too simplistic though.

      First of all, it’s a small sample size. Second, it’s inherent teams have young players on their ELC – to what extent that played a role in the Stanley cup wins is highly debatelable.

      You look at a team like Philadelphia – who made the cup finals – how many impactful ELC’s did they have (besides Giroux?)

      Sure the Chicago’s and Pittsburgh’s won a cup with ELC’s. On the same token, both are expected to contend for the cup in the upcoming years. As are teams like Vancouver, San Jose, and Washington. Just how many impactful ELC’s will they have in the upcoming years?

      The Edmonton Oilers don’t have a good reputation. To send down elite prospects when they’ve (so far) demonstrated they’re ready to play in the NHL is shortsighted. You treat your players well, it may come beneficial in th extension. See Sedin twins, Kesler, Burrows. If you ignore the human element, and view an employee as an input, such loyalty may not be prevalent the next time the employee has the upper hand (i.e. leverage).

      No sir.

      The correct approach would be to manage your resources well. Acquire cheap reliable veterans that are always available in July over failed projects like JF Jacques. Avoid overpaying depth players (Moreau, Staios, Pisani, Torres) when alternatives can perform the roles at half the price. Make astute trades with redunant assets. Create a motivated working environment that treats employees well.

    21. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      Detroit, by 2009-10, was spending $10MM more on Zetterberg, Cleary, Fillipula and Franzen than they did in 2007-08.

      This ignores the salary cap went up over the years.

      Further, they still did reaosonably well last year despite the magnitude of injuries.

      In addition, a decline in performance cannot be solely attributed to contract value – through passage of time, it can be argued their key players were past their prime.

    22. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      We’ve all seen what happened in Chicago over the past summer as the Blackhawks had to deal with finding an extra $15MM to pay Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith for next year.

      Much of it can be attributed to the poor contracts given to Campbell and Huet.

    23. R O
      September 28, 2010 at

      To send down elite prospects when they’ve (so far) demonstrated they’re ready to play in the NHL is shortsighted.

      For the last fucking time, you are making this shit up.

    24. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      Did you miss the pre-season so far?

      Of course it means nothing in the long run, but at this point they have earned a 9 game try-out at the least.

    25. R O
      September 28, 2010 at

      Oh right, the preseason! A handful of games against replacement-level teams is all the evidence anyone needs to declare readiness to play in… nay, readiness to dominate the NHL.

    26. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      Oh right, the preseason! A handful of games against replacement-level teams is all the evidence anyone needs to declare readiness to play in… nay, readiness to dominate the NHL

      That was a typo in the earlier post – I meant that Hall has dominated at the CHL level.

      He really doesn’t have much to prove there.

    27. Tyler Dellow
      September 28, 2010 at

      First of all, it’s a small sample size.

      Uh, no it isn’t. I looked at the entire population of Stanley Cup winners since the lockout.

      Second, it’s inherent teams have young players on their ELC – to what extent that played a role in the Stanley cup wins is highly debatelable.

      OK. Make the argument that Toews (Conn Smythe), Kane (Stanley Cup winning goal), Malkin (Conn Smythe), J. Staal, Zetterberg (leading playoff scorer), Getzlaf (5th in playoff scoring), Perry (7th), E. Staal (led playoffs in scoring) and Ward (Conn Smythe) played a limited role in their Stanley Cup wins. This should be good.

      You look at a team like Philadelphia – who made the cup finals – how many impactful ELC’s did they have (besides Giroux?)

      Philly was lucky to come out of a weak East in which the two far superior teams fell before the Flyers played them. They were a bounce away from not even being in the playoffs.

      Sure the Chicago’s and Pittsburgh’s won a cup with ELC’s. On the same token, both are expected to contend for the cup in the upcoming years. As are teams like Vancouver, San Jose, and Washington. Just how many impactful ELC’s will they have in the upcoming years?

      Vancouver is getting value in other ways. We’ll see who actually wins the Cup this year – they’re my bet along with Washington. In any event, you can’t start counting your Cup wins before they occur. To date, nobody’s won a Cup without some massive underpays by way of ELC’s or ELC type contracts. The Oilers have a chance to get themselves into that situation. Why not take it?

    28. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      One question – if the goal is to maximize the value of ELC, why stop at one year?

      Why not send Hall to Windsor for one more year – he acquires 4 years of junior experience, allowing him to play the subsequent year in the AHL?

      That way, he’ll be nearly 21 when he starts his NHL career in 2012-2013 – with the Oilers controlling his rights for 7 more seasons. Would this not be ideal, since it’s unlikely the Oilers will win the cup in the next 2 years?

      After all, as you said it, it’s a ”business transaction”

    29. Tyler Dellow
      September 28, 2010 at

      As I said in my post:

      As MPS has already spent one year outside of the NHL since being drafted and because Hall is a late birthday in the same year – he’s only seven months younger – it realistically only makes sense to hold them back one more year. If Hall was held back another year, his entry level contract wouldn’t slide, although the Oilers would still be entitled to seven years from him.

    30. godot10
      September 28, 2010 at

      “they may need to be extended next summer but what happens in 3 years when those 2 are extended and you have potentially 4 good young forwards who need new contracts?”

      You get the guarenteed overlap year this year while Hemsky and Penner attract the attention of the opposition, allowing Hall and Paajarvi to ease into the NHL,.

      And seeing everyone on the same roster for a season Hemsky, Penner, Hall, and Paajarvi, you can make a better decision on what to do with Hemsky and Penner next summer in terms of duration and amount.

      I agree in general with Tyler’s argument, but there are extenuating circumstances in the case of Hall and Paajarvi.

    31. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      Uh, no it isn’t. I looked at the entire population of Stanley Cup winners since the lockout.

      It’s still a small sample size, that over the long run (i.e. 30 years), may result in different conclusions.

      In any event, only 1 team wins the SC – which requires a lot of GD luck. Nashville was this close to taking a 3-2 series lead in round 1. It should hardly be considered the only measure of success. Which of course, you have ignored my point re: Washington, San Jose, Vancouver, etc. etc.

      OK. Make the argument that Toews (Conn Smythe), Kane (Stanley Cup winning goal), Malkin (Conn Smythe), J. Staal, Zetterberg (leading playoff scorer), Getzlaf (5th in playoff scoring), Perry (7th), E. Staal (led playoffs in scoring) and Ward (Conn Smythe) played a limited role in their Stanley Cup wins. This should be good.

      You missed my point. While having value ELC’s helped, it’s debateable on a macro basis that these contributed as significantly to cup wins as did other factors (trades, other value signings, injuries, etc).


      Philly was lucky to come out of a weak East in which the two far superior teams fell before the Flyers played them. They were a bounce away from not even being in the playoffs
      .

      And Chicago was a bounce away from losing in the first round to Nashville.

      Vancouver is getting value in other ways. We’ll see who actually wins the Cup this year – they’re my bet along with Washington. In any event, you can’t start counting your Cup wins before they occur. To date, nobody’s won a Cup without some massive underpays by way of ELC’s or ELC type contracts.

      Why can’t the Oilers get value in other ways – one of them being demonstrating loyalty to top performers, which could be rewarded with cap hits.

      Why can’t the Oilers make veteran value signings in July?

      And again – winning the Stanley Cup is hardly the only meausure for success. It’s akin to HFBoards commentators arguing in defence of Lowe’s absurd moves post 2006 -”BUT…BUT..Kevin Lowe took this team to the Stanley Cup Finals”

      Come on Tyler, you’re smarter than that.


      The Oilers have a chance to get themselves into that situation. Why not take it
      ?

      Because it’s debateable whether the benefits will exceed the long run costs.

    32. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      If Hall was held back another year, his entry level contract wouldn’t slide, although the Oilers would still be entitled to seven years from him.

      That still allows them to control Hall from 20-27 – which would by your metric, be ideal. This would optimize the benefits as the Oilers control Hall’s rights from 20-27 as opposed to 19-26.

      Given the Oilers are long-shots to win the cup in 2 years, I’m surprised you’re not banging this drum.

    33. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      It’s still a small sample size, that over the long run (i.e. 30 years), may result in different conclusions.

      The problem is that it is a different environment. Cap vs Non-cap completely changes things.

    34. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      You get the guarenteed overlap year this year while Hemsky and Penner attract the attention of the opposition, allowing Hall and Paajarvi to ease into the NHL,.

      In other words, pumping their tires and potentially increasing their counting numbers for when their ELC’s expire.

      And seeing everyone on the same roster for a season Hemsky, Penner, Hall, and Paajarvi, you can make a better decision on what to do with Hemsky and Penner next summer in terms of duration and amount.

      What is the plan for the summer then? If the kids do well and track well, how does that impact what you offer Penner and Hemsky? Do you lowball them in hopes they jump at it? Do you give them market value?

      What if the kids struggle? Does that force you to try and sign Hemmer and Penner to bigger deals because you are unsure of the kids? What happens the following year if the kids break out?

      I agree in general with Tyler’s argument, but there are extenuating circumstances in the case of Hall and Paajarvi.

      The Oilers aren’t in a position to compete this year or next year, so why burn this year? By the time you need these guys to be under value contracts they’ll be ready for raises (if things go well).

    35. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      The problem is that it is a different environment. Cap vs Non-cap completely changes things.

      Agreed. And since we’re only 5 years removed from the lock-out, it’s premature to begin making conclusions. Especially since it took a while for management across the league to get accustomed to the cap, and for the market to correct itself.

      Especially since teams like Detroit Philadephia, Ottawa, Edmonton – all teams whom made the SCF without having value ELC’s.

      And again, the Chicago’s, Washington’s, SJ’s, Pittsburgh’s and Vancouver’s of the NHL are being considered as Stanley Cup contenders for the next few years – all of whom no longer have value ELC’s at this point. This would imply evidence there is considerably other important factors in developing a Cup winning teams beyond extending an elite prospects ELC by a single year.

    36. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Much of it can be attributed to the poor contracts given to Campbell and Huet.

      How can Chicago having to find an additional $15 mil to pay Kane, Toews and Keith be attributed to the contracts given to Campbell & Huet?

      Even without those signings (Huet especially, considering he’s off the books this year), they’d still need to come up with $15 mil more than they did last year to sign these guys.

      Even without the Campbell contract they’d need to find a replacement D for him and still would have had to cut costs throughout the lineup.

      Chicago won the cup which is the ultimate goal. The thing is, with better management (including both their UFA signings and when to put their kids in the NHL), they could be looking at multiple cups.

      I don’t even think they can be looked at as the favourite heading into this year. They’ve lost a tonne of the depth that was so crucial for them last year.

    37. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      How can Chicago having to find an additional $15 mil to pay Kane, Toews and Keith be attributed to the contracts given to Campbell & Huet?

      Chicago won the cup which is the ultimate goal. The thing is, with better management (including both their UFA signings and when to put their kids in the NHL), they could be looking at multiple cups.
      .

      Part of the reason Chicago won the cup was because of key signings – Keith locked up at a bargain rate. Sharp acquired for peanuts. Hossa signed for a low cap hit – suppose Kane is kept in junior for another year – perhaps due to learning experiences in the NHL, Chciago is not looking as attractive as they did. Not to mention cap circumenvention took place – another factor that helped them reduce the cap hit, contributing to team’s success.

      That being said, Chicago kept it’s core intact and still has a reasonable shot at the cup again. It’s all speculation whether they could have won more cups, or in fact won a cup at all, had they kept Kane in London for another year

    38. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Especially since teams like Detroit Philadephia, Ottawa, Edmonton – all teams whom made the SCF without having value ELC’s.

      The Oilers leading scorer in 05-06 was on an ELC.

      The Senators had Meszaros and Eaves on ELC’s.

      And again, the Chicago’s, Washington’s, SJ’s, Pittsburgh’s and Vancouver’s of the NHL are being considered as Stanley Cup contenders for the next few years – all of whom no longer have value ELC’s at this point. This would imply evidence there is considerably other important factors in developing a Cup winning teams beyond extending an elite prospects ELC by a single year.

      Of course there are other factors but this is one of them. Getting good young talent on cheap deals is extremely important part of it. If you can’t get those good deals you aren’t going to win a cup.

    39. godot10
      September 28, 2010 at

      “What is the plan for the summer then? If the kids do well and track well, how does that impact what you offer Penner and Hemsky? Do you lowball them in hopes they jump at it? Do you give them market value?
      What if the kids struggle? Does that force you to try and sign Hemmer and Penner to bigger deals because you are unsure of the kids? What happens the following year if the kids break out?”

      dawgbone, You have the tail wagging the dog. Hockey and player development shourd drivie decisioning making. Cap management should is important but subordinate.

      The key to cap management is not overpaying mid and lower tier players. If one has too many top tier players to pay, that is a problem I want to have.

      What should drive the current decision is what is best for Hall and Paajarvi as hockey players. Cap management is subsidiary to that. Tyler and you are counting chickens before they have hatched. One has to develop Hall and Paajarvi into elite players first,.

      With Hall, I don’t think there is anything left for him to prove in junior. It would hurt his development not to give him a new challenge. Renney has to protect him like MacT protected Gagner.

      I think Paajarvi is likely the most ready of the big 3, and after 9 games, the Oilers will have to decide whether the NHL or AHL is best, but I think he will make it impossible for the Oilers to send him down.

    40. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Chicago kept it’s core intact, except for their leading goalscorer in the playoffs, their starting goaltender and Kris Versteeg.

      They replaced them with Turco and Pisani. The team has a good core, but lost a lot of it’s depth. These are the same problems Pittsburgh and Anaheim went through. The more you pay your core the less you can afford the guys to fill out your roster.

    41. BRIdub
      September 28, 2010 at

      “Especially since teams like Detroit Philadephia, Ottawa, Edmonton – all teams whom made the SCF without having value ELC’s.”

      Fist of all, he’s already pointed out Lidstrom was playing for less than market value and Zetterberg was only getting paid 2.5M.

      In the year the Oilers went to SCF they had Hemsky, Stoll, Torres on ELC’s and Horcoff making peanuts. I’m sure I’m missing another.

      And again in the year Ottawa was in SCF they had Fisher, Vermette, Meszaros on ELC’s and Volchenkov and Phillips on value contracts, oh, and that Spezza guy was only 25 as well. Wonder what he would’ve been getting paid that year if they had put him on their team when he was 18?

    42. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      The Oilers leading scorer in 05-06 was on an ELC.

      The Senators had Meszaros and Eaves on ELC’s.

      Hemsky wans’t on an entry level contract. Lowe gambled in the summer of 2005 by giving all of Hemsky, Stoll, Horcoff, and Smyth short term deals – it ended up costing him.

      Key is to lock up good young talent even if overpaying initially.

      As for Ottawa, Meszaros and Eaves, while help, were relatively insignicant in Ottawa’s cup run. If you’re going to bring up names like them, I’m sure most teams whom go to the cup in subsequent years can declare they had a value ELC on their roster.

      Of course there are other factors but this is one of them. Getting good young talent on cheap deals is extremely important part of it. If you can’t get those good deals you aren’t going to win a cup.

      It certainly helps, but it’s also just one of the ways to build a championship squad. If Washington or Vancouver wins the cup next year, which ELC could they attribute it to?

      IMO, the proposal to send Hall to the minors is short-sighted. And if we’re really going go that route, send him to Windsor this year, and Oklahoma in 2011-2012.

    43. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      dawgbone, You have the tail wagging the dog. Hockey and player development shourd drivie decisioning making. Cap management should is important but subordinate.

      No, winning a Stanley Cup should drive decision making, which includes cap management. Personally, I don’t give a shit if Taylor Hall breaks all of Gretzky’s records if he doesn’t win a cup in Edmonton.

      The key to cap management is not overpaying mid and lower tier players. If one has too many top tier players to pay, that is a problem I want to have.

      The key to cap management is overpaying as few players as possible, whether they are top tier or lower tier. You can’t win in the NHL when you pay too much money to the top of your roster (see Calgary).

      What should drive the current decision is what is best for Hall and Paajarvi as hockey players. Cap management is subsidiary to that. Tyler and you are counting chickens before they have hatched. One has to develop Hall and Paajarvi into elite players first,.

      What should drive decision making is what is best for the team as a whole, and again, cap management is a part of that. It does no good for the Oilers to turn these guys into stars in 2 years if they can’t keep them all in 3 years. Their goal should be to win Stanely Cups, not develop players. Developing players is merely part of the process.

      With Hall, I don’t think there is anything left for him to prove in junior.

      Who cares what he needs to prove? There is still plenty to learn.

      It would hurt his development not to give him a new challenge.

      How about spending the year in the OHL learning how to play C at ES/PP/PK? Could that not help in his development?

      How about learning how to protect himself better and not putting himself in bad positions on the ice. Developing more of the cerebral part of his game instead of the bullrush mentatlity he has now?

      Renney has to protect him like MacT protected Gagner.

      What has Gagner provided to the Oilers so far? Almost nothing and it’s 3 years and a few million in paid out money and nearly 10 mil in cap hit. The Oilers have nothing to show for what they’ve put into Gagner so far. Doesn’t mean he hasn’t gotten better, doesn’t mean he won’t in the near future, but I don’t think the development he got in the NHL is worth the price they paid over the development he would have gotten in the OHL.

      I think Paajarvi is likely the most ready of the big 3, and after 9 games, the Oilers will have to decide whether the NHL or AHL is best, but I think he will make it impossible for the Oilers to send him down.

      From what I’ve seen, Hall is probably the least ready. MPS had a strong game and so has Eberle. The probelm is both were against AHL level competition and you’d expect these players to shine.

      I don’t doubt all 3 could play in the NHL in some capacity. That being said I don’t see much value in it either short term or long term.

    44. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      Fist of all, he’s already pointed out Lidstrom was playing for less than market value and Zetterberg was only getting paid 2.5M.

      In the year the Oilers went to SCF they had Hemsky, Stoll, Torres on ELC’s and Horcoff making peanuts. I’m sure I’m missing another

      Maybe Lidstrom doesn’t sign a value contract if management viewed him as an input, and ignored the human element.

      As for Zetterberg: Hemsky and Stoll weren’t on their ELC’s in 2005. Both were on one year deals. Same with Horcoff. Lowe has had opportunity to sign young guys long term – but chose not to. Even in 2006, Horcoff should have been signed to a longer term. He instead gave longer term contracts at premium prices to aging vets like Moreau, Staios, and Pisani.

      Elite talent in the league is scarce. Hall and MPS may finally be those players the Oilers have lacked since 1990. Why risk a relationship over a single year?

    45. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Hemsky wans’t on an entry level contract. Lowe gambled in the summer of 2005 by giving all of Hemsky, Stoll, Horcoff, and Smyth short term deals – it ended up costing him.

      My mistake, forgot the rollover year for Hemsky because of the lockout. He was just paid like he was on an ELC.

      Key is to lock up good young talent even if overpaying initially.

      As for Ottawa, Meszaros and Eaves, while help, were relatively insignicant in Ottawa’s cup run. If you’re going to bring up names like them, I’m sure most teams whom go to the cup in subsequent years can declare they had a value ELC on their roster.

      Meszaros played ever game for Ottawa that year averaging over 20 minutes per night.

      It certainly helps, but it’s also just one of the ways to build a championship squad. If Washington or Vancouver wins the cup next year, which ELC could they attribute it to?

      Washington still has Varlamov on an ELC.

      And we can what if until the cows come home about certain teams winning the cup, the point is every cup winner has had impact players essentially making peanuts on their team. IF Vancouver happens to win the cup they’d be the first to buck that trend. Part of getting these great deals is the ability to have better depth on your team. Vancouver’s got a great top set of forwards but their 3rd and 4th lines are dog meat, as is their bottom 3 defence. They have massive holes in their lineup which are masked by the fact that they play in a crappy division.

      IMO, the proposal to send Hall to the minors is short-sighted. And if we’re really going go that route, send him to Windsor this year, and Oklahoma in 2011-2012.

      I’m all for that.

    46. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Elite talent in the league is scarce. Hall and MPS may finally be those players the Oilers have lacked since 1990. Why risk a relationship over a single year?

      If all goes well, by the time it comes for them to make a decision this team will be competetive and they’ll have put that single year behind them.

      The flip side is this.

      Say the kids do okay the first couple of years production wise but the team doesn’t go anywhere. Then they do have breakout years and the team is forced to pay for them. No team success but plenty individual accolades for the kids. The Oilers are stuck in a position where they have to pay these players more money without really getting anything from them in terms of team success.

      There are hypotheticals all over the place that can be used. Plenty of what ifs that can be tossed out. In the end, if the Oilers are not ready to compete this year, what value does Hall bring to the organization this year? What value does MPS?

    47. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      Washington still has Varlamov on an ELC.

      They also have over 5M in cap space – so that weakens that argument.

      And again, it’s too soon from the lockout (especially since it took a while to get accustomed to it and the market to correct itself, compounded with cap circumvention techniques) to begin making conclusions. It’s also very narrow to consider SC champions the only measure of success – especially with the amount of luck required to win the SC.

      Good teams across the league have value contracts, not just those in their ELC. Good teams make smart trades, and generally avoid overpaying for depth/role players. Good teams pounce on value signings in July.

      What I’m saying is, whether Taylor Hall plays in the NHL this year or next, it will likely play a small role in the Edmonton Oilers winning the SC.

    48. PJO
      September 28, 2010 at

      In the end, if the Oilers are not ready to compete this year, what value does Hall bring to the organization this year? What value does MPS?

      At-bats in the NHL. It only took Chicago 3 years to win the cup after selecting Kane 1st overall in 2007.

      Maybe Kane doesn’t perform as well as he did this past playoffs, if it’s his 2nd year instead of his third.

      Hall and MPS improve the Edmonton Oilers this year. Maybe a season showing signs of progression can help aid in signing Hemsky and Penner to extensions.

      Accelerating development may be beneficial, especially if you see there being a limited window of opportunity.

      Hall and MPS aren’t dumb – trying this tactic could result a rocky start to what could otherwise be a long standing relationship. If they feel they’re being purposely being held back, it could result in unfortunate consequences.

      Now if they’re not legitimately ready, that’s another thing. So far, they appear ready.

    49. Gerald
      September 28, 2010 at

      … a relationship with their hockey stars that’s somewhat more sophisticated than that of a 14 year old boy who is at his girlfriend’s beck and call until she breaks up with him, at which point he tells people that she’s a slut. Our collective relationship with Taylor Hall and MPS is a business transaction, not a romance.

      Does that then mean that Hall and MPS are prostitutes?

      Just sayin’.

      Good observations here, Tyler (which is to say that they agree with my own views on the matter). The connection between getting significant “value for money” from some players and being able to have more good players with those notional savings is undeniable.

      Very moneyballish, and I say that in a good way.

    50. P-Ow
      September 28, 2010 at

      Hall and MPS aren’t dumb – trying this tactic could result a rocky start to what could otherwise be a long standing relationship. If they feel they’re being purposely being held back, it could result in unfortunate consequences.

      If they aren’t dumb, then why can’t it be explained to them that they are being held back so that the team is in a better position to win in 3 years? If they aren’t dumb, they should be able to understand this reasoning, correct?

    51. godot10
      September 28, 2010 at

      Hockey players are not numbers, stats, and salary. They are human beings. Your guys are forgetting that you are managing real live human beings, and not managing numbers, stats, and salaries.

      This does not mean that numbers, stats, and salaries aren’t important, but one is managing people, not data-producing robots. Managing the numbers is subordinate to managing the human beings.

    52. mclea
      September 28, 2010 at

      Having a conversation with respect to whether or not an extra year in juniors “stunts” the development of players strikes me as being a waste of time since the requisite comparison (the performance of the player had they not been sent to juniors) is entirely unverifiable.

      Maybe all these players who were kept in juniors but are still good would have been even better had they started in the pros. It’s impossible to know since we don’t have any reliable data to create a predictive model for future NHL performance based on results in juniors.

    53. Tyler Dellow
      September 28, 2010 at

      I completely agree with mclea.

      godot10 – I’ve pointed out a bunch of examples of guys, in hockey and otherwise, who got over what they had to know was CBA related time below the best league in the world. It happens all the time in baseball and, probably in hockey as well. It all ends up as water under the bridge.

    54. September 28, 2010 at

      Fact

      Out of the Past 7 Forwards selected First overall in the Draft, Kovalchuk,Nash,Ovechkin,Crosby,Kane,Stamkos and Tavares have all started the season in the NHL. The first 6 are all superstars and Tavares is probably on his way to becoming one.

      “We should do what Detroit did and play there prospects in the Minors.”

      Lidstrom,Dasyuk and Zetterberg the main nucleus of there team for the past 10 years NEVER played in the minors totatlly negating that point

      “Chicago is in contract trouble and we don’t want to end up in their boat”

      They won the Stanley Cup. Is that not the goal of any NHL club? Do you honestly think they would give up the cup and possible play and stall Kane and Toews entry into the NHL? It never crossed there mind one bit and it woudlnt cross there mind

      No wonder Bloggers get a bad rep. They don’t know what the hell they are writing

    55. September 28, 2010 at

      I completely agree with mclea.

      haha, how many times has that been uttered here?

      No wonder Bloggers get a bad rep. They don’t know what the hell they are writing

      Pfft. Pipe down while the grown-ups are speaking.

    56. September 28, 2010 at

      Like I said do some basic research the info is all out there

      Look at the past 10 years of number 1 draft picks

      Look at the pedigree of top teams players

      Then write a competent article and maybe people won’t destroy it

    57. Tyler Dellow
      September 28, 2010 at

      Thanks Joe. Out of curiosity, how old are you? Are you a well educated fellow?

    58. Hawerchuk
      September 28, 2010 at

      “You guys are forgetting that you are managing real live human beings, and not managing numbers, stats, and salaries.”

      Brian Rafalski’s anger is palpable every time he touches the puck. Mike Knuble curses the town of Glens Falls on a daily basis. Patrick Sharp wept every time he suited up for the Philadelphia Phantoms, knowing that the Flyers had skated on the very same rink.

      The guys who worry about how much coin they’re getting are the ones who feel their careers slipping through their fingers and know that they might be selling cars or working a $25k/year scouting job next season. A 23-26 year-old NHL player no doubt sees himself as invincible and isn’t concerned about exactly what year the payoff comes. If it were some other way, there would have been a revolt by the younger players in the NHLPA to completely re-structure the contract system.

    59. The Other John
      September 28, 2010 at

      I sure wish JoeHallenback and Tyler were debating cap management for the Oilers because maybe we would not, consistently, have so many overpays sitting on our roster and be unmoveable

    60. The Other John
      September 28, 2010 at

      Or was someone going to suggest Khabby, Horcoff and Souray’s contract is moveable. Yeah, if you pair one of them up with Hall or MPS

    61. Passive Voice
      September 28, 2010 at

      I don’t think anyone can say that Chicago made a mistake with Kane or that TB made a mistake with Stamkos, or that LA made a mistake with Doughty.

      I’m willing to bet that, privately, Stevie Y is gonna be awful grumpy this time next year when he’s forking over 3-4 million more to Stamkos for 2011-2012 as payment for last year’s cameo on Barry Melrose Place.

      Doughty appears to be an honest-to-goodness freak of nature, capable of handling his biz as an 18-yo Dman, and even with him, the question is: to what end? To what end did LAK blow a year on his ELC? They finished poor enough to have another top-five pick.

    62. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Lidstrom,Dasyuk and Zetterberg the main nucleus of there team for the past 10 years NEVER played in the minors totatlly negating that point

      None of them were in the NHL at 18 either.

    63. godot10
      September 28, 2010 at

      “I’ve pointed out a bunch of examples of guys, in hockey and otherwise, who got over what they had to know was CBA related time below the best league in the world. It happens all the time in baseball and, probably in hockey as well. It all ends up as water under the bridge.”

      None of them led their team to back-to-back Memorial Cups, winning 2 MVP’s, and with 3 full years in the CHL. This is a player ready for a new challenge emotionally and psychologically. He is your most important asset at the moment.

      Cap management doesn’t really apply to Taylor Hall. You manage the cap elsewhere. All that matters is his development as a player.

      Sometimes doing the right thing requires breaking the rules, or realizing when the normal rules don’t apply.

    64. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Is there any evidence out there that suggests playing an extra year in the OHL will have a negative impact on Taylor Hall?

      If anything, I think what happened with Rick Nash is a pretty big warning sign on what happens when you fuck up an ELC.

      They paid a shit load of money for a cherry picker who was getting his ass kicked all over the ice. It wasn’t until about the 3rd year he was in the league that he was finally able to turn it around and become a useful NHL player. By that time he was ready to cash in on a big deal that paid only for RFA years.

      That’s ultimately the problem with this. With rare exceptions these guys aren’t difference makers as 18 year old rookies… so what is the reason you have them on the team?

    65. September 28, 2010 at

      There’s another issue that affects the calculation, too. If we let Hall’s ELC slide, he’ll finish the ELC as a better player. That might put him in a better situation to negotiate a higher salary as an RFA than he would have if he was negotiating after 3 years of worse results do entirely to being younger.

      In a way, this is sort of why and how we got a good deal with Hemsky. We all knew he was great, but there results in his early career were uneven, solely because he was so young. (I know, I know, if we don’t slide the ELC we have to negotiate with the player while knowing less about how good the player will be. Of course, we could use that indeterminacy in our favor, as we didn’t do in the Gagner case.)

      I’m not saying that this implies that Tyler’s strategy of trying to slide ELC’s back isn’t a good one, especially for teams that are building. It is a good strategy and we should follow it for MPS especially. But there are costs and benefits here to sliding ELC’s.

      Certainly, I think you can justify Hall as an exception to the rule. (Again, Paajarvi less so.) And as I argued in the last thread, you can’t let agents and players know that you are going to follow the sliding-ELC strategy univesally, because if they know that’s what we are going to do, it will give college guys and Europeans more of an incentive to not sign here.

      And Hall is a really special case because he’s a first overall. Guys like Heatley and Pronger and Lindros are -apparently- allowed to tell their team they’re going to be traded. Telling Hall we’re going to make him play 2 of the productive years of his finite hockey career earning nothing, means you’re telling Hall that he’s not going to get 7.5MM or so (if he hits the bonuses) that he would earn in a city that would play him. I think this is part of why other smarter GM’s don’t send their first overalls down.

      You can say, it will all be water under the bridge for Hall (Spezza and Ryan are still with the clubs that drafted them) but there’s a chance it won’t be. You’re effectively taking 7.5MM from Hall’s pocket. It’s a gamble to think he won’t respond in a way that effects the team much worse than having to pay him a higher salary earlier in his career. (And again, there are some plausible situations where not sliding the ELC could work in our favor. That is to say, I do admit that sliding the ELC is more likely to effect the long term caphit of the Oilers possitively, but this isn’t certain by any means.)

    66. kinger
      September 28, 2010 at

      I can’t imagine a scenario where either Hemsky or Penner remain Oilers beyond the 2011-2012 season.

      Put yourselves in their shoes. You’ve watched your incompetent management team oversee farce after farce (Pronger, Nylander, Heatley and Souray), while the you wallow in the basement of the conference. You’re now on your third coach since the magic of ’06, and management is focusing on putting a bunch of young players on the ice (players that you know you won’t be winning with, because you’ve now spent long enough in the league to know how things work).

      Maybe this is just as crazy as the argument that keeping Hall and Paajarvi on the team for 10-11 will keep 27 and 83 around, but I think it holds a lot more water.

    67. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Kris, the counter to your point is that if Hall plays in the NHL at 18, he signs again at 21.

      IF he enters the NHL at 20, he signs again at 23.

      If he has a really strong 20 year old year in the first case, he’s going to be costly from there on out.

      In the latter case, he’s going to have a good year at 20 and be under contract for the next 2 years.

      Look at Gagner. He signed at 18 and played. At 21 he signs a new deal for 2 years.

      If last year was his rookie year, he’d still have 2 years left on his deal, taking him to the same place he’s at with his old deal.

      In either case, a great next couple of seasons is going to net him a similar payday. The main difference is you only have 2 RFA years in the former, while you have 4 in the latter.

      If we agree that the player will be better at 23 than he is now, it makes far more sense to start him later on.

    68. Bank Shot
      September 28, 2010 at

      Vancouver is getting value in other ways. We’ll see who actually wins the Cup this year – they’re my bet along with Washington. In any event, you can’t start counting your Cup wins before they occur. To date, nobody’s won a Cup without some massive underpays by way of ELC’s or ELC type contracts. The Oilers have a chance to get themselves into that situation. Why not take it?

      Since the lockout, the only teams that have won the cup have also happened to have some of the best players in the league.

      Carolina is the exception obviously, but their win happened in a year where Brian Gionta scored 90 points. I think we can all agree that Carolina was one of, if not the worst team to win the cup in modern NHL history and the entire season should be taken with a grain of salt.

      Chicago had a vezina winning defenseman making $1.5 million.

      Pittsbrugh had arguably the best center in the game.

      Anaheim had 2 of the top defensemen, and a hall of fame winger.

      Detroit had three of the best players in the game.

      Who do the Oilers have to lead them to Stanley Cup glory? It isn’t going to be one of Penner, Horcoff, or Gilbert. They just aren’t that caliber of player. The Oilers aren’t going to be cup contenders unless they acquire such players, or a guy like Hall or MPS develops into one.

      Are the Oilers chances of acquiring a true star increased by leaving MPS, or Hall off the team this season?

      I don’t see how that would be the case. They are arguably more able to acquire such a star if MPS/Hall create a situation in which players think the Oilers are building something special. Roleplayers will be more likely to sign as well.

      Winning with strong rookies on ELC’s is a great way for a team to get ahead. I’m not sure how it is a great strategy in this case. I don’t see how the Oilers compete for a cup on the backs of Hall/MPS ELC’s regardless of whether they sit out this season unless some miracle happens next offseason. Like Thornton signs in Edmonton. I’m not holding my breath.

    69. Bank Shot
      September 28, 2010 at

      An idea like this reminds me of using offer sheets.

      They seem to have great potential if used in the perfect situation, but that situation never seems to come about and there hasn’t been an offer sheet to date that can be considered a clear win for the team making the offer.

    70. September 28, 2010 at

      “An idea like this reminds me of using offer sheets.”

      But backwards. Teams are scared to death to send a 2nd round pick out on an offer sheet, but they aren’t afraid to blow ELC years.

      It’s bizarre.

    71. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Bank Shot, the only thing that’s going to convince players that the Oilers are building something special is if they win.

      Chicago had to overpay Campbell and Huet and weren’t able to add a value UFA like Hossa until after they made a playoff run.

      Same thing will happen in Edmonton, but Hall and co. are not ready to do that this year, so even in this instance it’s a wasted year.

      Unless you believe the Oilers are a playoff team with these kids in the lineup (and not without them), it makes no sense to burn these years on their deals.

    72. Bank Shot
      September 28, 2010 at

      Realistically, the Oilers have basically zero chance of winning the CUP in the next four seasons. The MPS and Hall ELC’s are going to be burnt up by the time they are ready to make a run anyway.

      So what’s the point in delaying their entry into the NHL besides ideology?

    73. September 28, 2010 at

      “Bank Shot, the only thing that’s going to convince players that the Oilers are building something special is if they win.”

      Want to convince the team you’re trying to win? Sign a fucking center that can win faceoffs, kill penalties and match (without drowning) top lines!

      What’s that? Could’ve shown the commitment to winning each of the last four seasons and haven’t? Oh, right. Playing romper room is showing a commitment to winning. Actually making moves that get wins? Shut up math guys.

    74. Bank Shot
      September 28, 2010 at

      Coach PB,

      I don’t know what you are going on about. I was in favour of pursuing defencemen that could play in the top for this offseason, and veteran bottom six guys.

      Delaying Hall and MPS’s entry into the NHL is not a surefire recipe for more wins.

    75. dawgbone
      September 28, 2010 at

      Do you believe the Oilers have no shot at winning the cup in the next 4 years?

      Chicago made a pretty quick turnaround as did Anaheim & Pittsburgh.

      If these kids are as good as advertised and the Oilers can keep Penner, Gagner & Hemsky I think they have a pretty good forward group. Between now and 3 years from now is lots of time to fill holes on the blueline and in net.

      Rebuilds don’t need to take 5+ years. In fact if it does take that long you are screwing something up.

    76. Passive Voice
      September 28, 2010 at

      I think CorpseFX makes some compelling points:

    77. Passive Voice
      September 28, 2010 at

      gah, damn html.

      this is what happens when Numbers Weirdos get obsessive about Min/Maxing everything down to abstract calculations to generate reality.

      “im so smart, im dumb, and heres the vacuum of numbers that apply to the situation i want to prove it. but havent calculated every other variable related to the situation. fart.”

      go watch baseball, guys.

    78. September 28, 2010 at

      Bank Shot – I know. The lack of the center made me snap and I turned into…one of them :)

    79. OilW30
      September 29, 2010 at

      This is like trying to tell a bunch of impulse buyers that they should wait for the next sale. If you’re married, then you know it’s hard enough to convince one, let alone thousands.

    80. Woodguy
      September 29, 2010 at

      Kinger said :

      “I can’t imagine a scenario where either Hemsky or Penner remain Oilers beyond the 2011-2012 season.”

      Tychkowski has a piece in this morning’s Edmonton Sun called “Hemsky Rejuvenated”

      Link: http://www.edmontonsun.com/sports/myoilers/2010/09/28/15511316.html

      Some highlight quotes:

      “And we have lots of skill, lots of good young guys coming up, so it’s just fun to be part of it.”

      “Magnus can do it at a fast, fast pace,” said Hemsky. “He’s a really skilled guy who can do a lot with his speed and he’s really smart. He’s got a good release and can shoot the puck. And he’s good in the cycle down low, he doesn’t stand around. It’s really good for me.”

      This bodes well for Hemsky getting in more of a re-signing frame of mind.

      At least a little better than lugging around JFJ all game.

    81. kinger
      September 29, 2010 at

      @Woodguy

      What’s he going to say? That the team is shit and is going to be shit again.

      These guys say the same thing every TC: team looks great, new energy, have to forget about last year.

    82. kinger
      September 29, 2010 at

      @Woodguy

      What’s he going to say? That the team is shit and is going to be shit again?

      These guys say the same thing every TC: team looks great, new energy, have to forget about last year.

    83. Woodguy
      September 29, 2010 at

      So we should trust what you think he should be thinking rather than what he actually says?

      He also says that hockey is fun again in the article. Don’t remember him saying that before.

      I also don’t remember him referring to his teammates as being “good for me” before either.

      Sure some of its boiler plate stuff, but historically Hemsky doesn’t say much, and he hasn’t talked like this before.

    84. Vic Ferrari
      September 29, 2010 at

      You read HFboards? Wow, you really are a masochist, Tyler.

      It’s a moot point anyways, the kids will stay up. Especially Hall and the Swede. The Oilers are selling hope and the promise of brighter days ahead. Really that’s all they have to sell, and they are doing it well. How many last place teams generate so much excitement and quietly increase ticket prices in a down economy?

      On top of that, most fans aren’t even expecting the Oilers to make the playoffs (though I suspect that, secretly, many are). As long as the kids shine they’ll be happy.

      That’s where it could get hairy. If there is anything we have learned from having guys like Keenan as sports analysts, it’s that owners usually have a lot of input on the GM side, and that GMs usually have a lot of input on the coaching side. And unless you’re Ted Nolan, you do as told.

      The Oilers are going to want to see the kids put in a position to succeed. So by definition some other player or combination of players, depending on the game, are going to be put in a position to fail. Last time this happened, Lowe/Tambellini sold off all the guys in the latter group and handsomely rewarded the guys in the former group, and we know how that has gone.

      Is it cynical to expect history to repeat itself here? Perhaps, but that’s where the smart money is.

    85. BRIdub
      September 29, 2010 at

      Somebody above made a good point about the financial aspect for the players. I don’t think they would be emotionally angry about being held back, as stated they would surely understand the logic once it was explained to them but in essence by delaying their entry into the NHL you are taking millions of dollars out of their pocket.

      A player’s career has a definite end date, very few can play until they are forty so the only way for a longer/more lucrative career is to start earlier for them. Delaying Hall by a year or two is very much like taking 7.5M dollars from him.

      However, I think a way around this aspect, although I admittedly have no idea if it is CBA compliant or would work with an ELC could be this:
      A smart GM would have known last year when negotiating these ELC’s that he was planning to keep MPS in the minors this season. Would it be possible for him to offer a 2 way contract that pays say 1 million in the AHL and 2 million in the NHL? That would surely help the player get over the financial loss of an NHL year and is basically just asking your owner to pay 1 million dollars now for 4 million dollars of cap space in 4 years time. Does this make sense/is it CBA compliant?

    86. dawgbone
      September 29, 2010 at

      BRIdub, entry level deals are restricted in terms of the max salary being paid to a player on the AHL portion of the deal so it wouldn’t work.

      As an aside, I don’t have an issue with the Oilers playing Hall & MPS the 9 games this year to give them a bit more money.

    87. Quain
      September 29, 2010 at

      Maybe that can convince Hall to suck it up with promise of giving him the lifetime employment position of ‘Vice President of Remebering the Teens’ after he retires. Sure, you lose a year of prime earning potential, but you gain a few decades of being a complete fuck-up without reprocussions.

    88. Daniel
      September 29, 2010 at

      Player development should be priority #1. As long as playing in the NHL will be better for their respective game’s, if it means the youngsters cost a little more to re-sign in the future the Oilers will still benefit by re-signing a more developed player. Making these guys the best they can be will benefit the team in the future. Therefore, the Oilers should do what is best for each youngster’s development as a player.

      With Hall having dominated at the junior level, there’s no reason to believe returning to junior will help his game dramatically. He already won the Memorial Cup, was named MVP, got drafted #1. His confidence probably won’t get any higher. It might not hurt his game, but he likely wouldn’t improve and learn as much as he would playing in the NHL. Thus, there is very little developmental upside to another OHL season. Perhaps the Oilers disagree, but I doubt it. Therefore, for developmental purposes he should play in the NHL (so long as he earns his spot on the roster).

      The same principles apply to Eberle, Paajarvi, and every Oilers prospect, really. I believe these 3 guys will benefit more from an NHL season than from playing in the OHL/AHL/SEL. In turn, the Oilers benefit by getting better players in the future.

      Once you decide what is best for each player’s development, you get the added bonus that this season is as good as any to break into the NHL. Oilers fans expect the team to suck this year, so there is very little pressure to win. Breaking in together will establish friendship, a friendly competition, etc. I also think Oilers fans have fairly reasonable expectations for these rookies, so there isn’t a ton of individual pressure to put up X amount of points/goals.

    89. dawgbone
      September 29, 2010 at

      The number 1 priority should be to win the Stanley cup and assemble the best team possible.

      Is there any actual evidence that suggests spending the 18 year old season in the CHL is harmful to the development of players?

      Just look at the Gagner situation. He clearly wasn’t ready to be an NHL player at 18, and we went and burned a year of his contract. So instead of being on year 2 of his ELC (with 5 RFA years left after this one), he’s on year 1 of his second contract (with 3 RFA years left).

      Have the Oilers gained anything from playing Gagner in the NHL at 18?

    90. slipper
      September 30, 2010 at

      Playing Hall and MPS this season will immediately increase the pleasure derived from watching hockey games. The difference between that and something like the Khabibulin deal is that, with the Bulin deal, it does little for me now, and it promises to do even less for me later.

      The problem with trying to take a more sophisticated approach to being a professional sports fan is that if you’re going to approach it from that sort of intellectual perspective then ultimately you’re going to arrive at the conclusion that the whole process is utter waste of time, and that your time and efforts would be better spent elsewhere. Unfortunately for me, I’m a man of little to no aspirations. So instead of 80% of my mental faculties being directed toward sexual conquest, I’d be running at a full 100% capacity, which also increases the odds of inadvertantly procreating. That really wouldn’t be of any service to anybody, except maybe those who build double wide trailers and sell reduced price lots right on the edges of indian reserves.

      So when I’m when living adjacent of Hobbema, in a shitty modular on a quarter acre lot, ducking stray .22 calibre rounds on my daily excursion to Fas Gas to buy diapers for the little heathen and 2 packs of grape flavoured primetimes, this whole ELC should they/shouldn’t they debate will all seem a little trivial in retrospect.

    91. mike
      September 30, 2010 at

      “This is getting trashed all over the internet, which makes me think it’s more likely that it’s right.”

      The reverse of the argument from authority? Of course there are some who would ice all 3 if they were not ready to deliver/profit from top 12 play. But really you staked out the other extreme where a guy who can deliver/profit from top 9 is competing against the 3 year old version of himself. If he’s ready your simple proposition is lose-lose:

      “It’s a simple enough proposition: you only get three years with these guys on entry level contracts and you might as well use them when the player in question is a stronger player”

      Zetterberg was skin and bones and Holland made the right call. Eberle is a moot case since he’s ready and doesn’t slide. Magnus and Hall get their 9 games. If I had to call it right now Magnus is ready and Hall could use a year at centre in the O.

      Be fair and hard nosed about development and you get contract benefits. Sign him to compete with the 3 year old version of himself and in a league with mobility you’re cutting off your nose to spite yourself.

    92. mike
      September 30, 2010 at

      (3 years oldER version of himself) LOL

    93. dawgbone
      September 30, 2010 at

      Zetterberg was tiny when he was drafted. He wasn’t after his huge year in the SEL.

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