• Scoring Chances: G34 Predators at Oilers, Dec 17th

    by  • December 18, 2009 • Uncategorized • 14 Comments

    Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20509

    Team Period Time Note EDM Opponent  
    EDM 1 16:55 Goal 12 PP 10 12 27 37 38 71 2 8 9 29 35 5v4
    NSH 1 15:11 5 27 38 67 71 89 2 8 11 25 29 35 5v5
    EDM 1 15:00 67 5 27 38 67 71 89 2 8 11 25 29 35 5v5
    EDM 1 14:59 Goal 71 5 27 38 67 71 89 2 8 11 25 29 35 5v5
    NSH 1 14:42 19 22 38 44 46 77 6 9 20 27 39 71 5v5
    NSH 1 11:05 5 10 12 32 38 71 2 8 10 19 26 39 5v5
    NSH 1 10:21 5 10 12 32 38 71 6 11 20 25 29 39 5v5
    EDM 1 9:27 32 10 12 32 38 44 77 6 10 19 20 26 39 5v5
    EDM 1 8:38 89 24 27 37 38 67 89 2 8 19 25 29 39 5v5
    NSH 1 7:49 5 19 22 38 46 71 2 3 8 13 28 39 5v5
    NSH 1 7:47 Goal 5 19 22 38 46 71 3 13 28 32 39 51 5v5
    EDM 1 4:34 67 27 38 44 67 71 89 11 27 32 39 51 71 5v5
    NSH 1 3:51 Goal 19 22 38 44 46 77 6 11 20 25 29 39 5v5
    NSH 1 3:01 Goal 24 27 37 38 67 89 2 8 9 27 39 71 5v5
    NSH 1 2:18 5 19 22 38 46 71 6 10 11 20 25 39 5v5
    NSH 2 19:45 10 12 32 38 44 77 6 10 19 20 26 39 5v5
    NSH 2 16:03 Post 10 12 19 38 44 77 10 19 26 32 39 51 5v5
    EDM 2 14:35 PP 12 10 12 27 37 38 71 2 8 11 29 39 5v4
    EDM 2 14:34 PP 37 10 12 27 37 38 71 2 8 11 29 39 5v4
    NSH 2 11:42 Goal 10 12 19 24 37 38 6 19 20 27 39 71 5v5
    EDM 2 10:59 19 5 10 12 19 38 71 6 9 20 27 39 71 5v5
    NSH 2 8:53 PP 19 24 27 37 38 11 26 28 39 51 71 4v5
    EDM 2 5:50 Goal 12 PP 10 12 27 38 44 71 2 8 25 29 39 5v4
    EDM 2 3:36 67 27 38 44 67 77 89 6 9 20 27 39 71 5v5
    NSH 2 0:03 Goal PP 16 18 38 44 77 6 10 19 20 27 39 4v5
    NSH 3 17:30 10 12 19 24 37 38 3 6 13 20 28 39 5v5
    EDM 3 15:43 SH 19 5 19 27 38 71 11 26 28 39 51 71 4v5
    NSH 3 15:14 PP 5 19 27 38 71 11 26 28 39 51 71 4v5
    EDM 3 14:21 32 16 32 38 44 46 77 2 8 9 25 29 39 5v5
    NSH 3 12:54 5 12 16 27 38 71 6 11 20 27 39 71 5v5
    EDM 3 12:42 27 5 12 16 27 38 71 6 11 20 27 39 71 5v5
    NSH 3 12:34 5 12 16 27 38 71 6 11 20 27 39 71 5v5
    EDM 3 11:00 PP 12 10 12 27 37 38 71 11 20 25 39 51 5v4
    EDM 3 10:48 PP 19 12 16 19 38 71 77 2 11 13 20 39 5v4
    EDM 3 5:17 27 12 13 27 38 44 77 3 8 9 39 51 71 5v5
    EDM 3 4:31 46 13 18 24 37 38 46 6 13 20 26 28 39 5v5
    EDM 3 3:10 16 5 16 19 38 67 71 6 11 20 25 29 39 5v5
    NSH 3 1:45 13 18 37 38 46 77 2 8 19 26 27 39 5v5
    NSH 3 0:44 Goal 10 16 27 38 44 71 6 11 20 25 29 39 5v5
    EDM 3 0:26 46 5 13 18 38 46 71 9 13 27 32 39 51 5v5
    # Player EV PP SH
    5 L. SMID 17:35 6 8 0:03 0 0 1:01 1 1
    10 S. HORCOFF 15:20 2 7 4:40 5 0 1:03 0 0
    12 R. NILSSON 15:06 4 8 5:01 6 0 0:00 0 0
    13 A. COGLIANO 12:04 3 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    16 R. POTULNY 13:27 3 3 1:41 1 0 2:24 0 1
    18 E. MOREAU 9:46 2 1 0:00 0 0 2:48 0 1
    19 P. O’SULLIVAN 14:06 2 8 0:24 1 0 1:29 1 2
    22 J. JACQUES 6:30 0 5 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    24 S. STAIOS 14:47 2 3 0:00 0 0 0:24 0 1
    27 D. PENNER 13:47 7 5 4:56 5 0 1:48 1 2
    32 R. STONE 10:36 2 3 0:00 0 0 0:12 0 0
    37 D. GREBESHKOV 14:08 2 4 4:43 4 0 0:24 0 1
    38 J. DESLAURIERS 47:45 13 17 6:37 6 0 4:52 1 3
    44 S. SOURAY 16:30 5 5 1:55 1 0 3:27 0 1
    46 Z. STORTINI 9:52 3 6 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    67 G. BRULE 13:37 6 2 1:22 0 0 0:00 0 0
    71 L. VISNOVSKY 17:08 7 9 5:00 6 0 1:01 1 1
    77 T. GILBERT 16:22 4 5 1:36 1 0 3:27 0 1
    89 S. GAGNER 10:51 5 2 1:44 0 0 0:00 0 0
    Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
    1 6 9 5 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2 5 5 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
    3 9 6 6 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
    4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Totals 20 20 13 17 6 0 0 0 1 3 0 0

    14 Responses to Scoring Chances: G34 Predators at Oilers, Dec 17th

    1. December 18, 2009 at

      Imagine how much uglier it would have looked without that 5-2 stretch in the last 10 minutes.

    2. December 18, 2009 at

      Lines and defense tandems:

      10-32-12
      27-89-67
      18-16-13
      22-46-19

      5-71-
      44-77
      24-37

      JDD-DD

      At the 5:01 mark the Oilers were up 2-0 and had registered three of the games first four chances; two of the first three at EV.

      The Preds would go on to register 11 of the game’s next 16 EV chances and the Oilers only closed the gap thanks to logging six of the game’s last 11 EV chances but that meant little considering the deficit at the time was two goals and if we’re learned anything from this exercise it’s that teams play to the score.

      D: All three tandems were caught on the ice for a EVGA and the most surprising number is that 37 only wound up 2/4; of course he was on for two GA but he looked terrible by the eye and even worse than his first game back on Tues night against the Kings.

      44 made a terrible pinch on the second Preds goal and made another couple of brutal plays but he’s a high paid vet who’s attractive so I doubt you’ll hear Quinn berate him in the PC. Hey, I’m not saying Quinn’s into dudes but 44 seems above criticism and I’m just searching for reasons why:)
      71 made a couple of iffy plays and he’s on a bit of a downslide right now.

      Forwards: The fourth line got dinged for two EV goals in the first period and that shouldn’t happen in an entire home game let alone in a period. That line should never play together again and the Oilers should call up a spare forward from the A and try and spark the last trio over the boards.

      10 continues to drown plus/minus wise so we can’t count on offense from that unit. The 89 line outchanced again and that seems like a given and the only other positive was that the 16 line seemed to right the ship a little.

      The less said about the netminding the better and I don’t think anyone expected Deslauries to be able to carry the mail so his play shouldn’t come as any revelation.

      One last note and it concerns Quinn’s tirade after Tuesday night’s loss to the Kings. I guess he did it for effect and as a parting shot across the bow that after the five game winning streak the expectations had changed. Well, I thought he looked the fool because the club played well on Tues night and lost because of bad luck and lesser netminding.

      Now, Quinn really looks the fool in the face of tonight’s performance because here was a game that begged for a rant:)

    3. Will
      December 18, 2009 at

      Funny… what felt different about the past six games for me (compared to the last 2 years or so) was that it didn’t feel like we were sneaking away with games in a shootout that we had no business winning. While we weren’t always in the black for EVSC, most games were pretty close, and the one game we lost we were well in the black. Like many others, I was kind of puzzled at OTC going off on a rage about the LA game when I thought we’d played pretty well but didn’t get the bounces.

      Looking at the goalie numbers, though, am I fooling myself? JDD’s SV%:

      vs. Det .964
      vs. Dal .943
      vs. Fla .943
      vs. Tam .941
      vs. StL .900
      vs. LAK .885

      Was our win streak because JDD got hot? I’m having trouble reconciling this since he seems to either let in 1 or 2 crap goals every game or give up some huge rebounds that lead to goals (not to mention his puck handling makes me nauseous). I dunno, maybe he made the “big Grant Fuhr” saves when it counted.

      I didn’t watch the game tonight but how much of the loss was on the goalie vs. the skaters in front of him? Regardless, the trend is looking pretty clear: JDD’s SV% is coming back to Earth. I’m wondering if the play of the skaters has improved enough to win games with just average goaltending, or whether the warts are going to be exposed now that our goalie has cooled off.

    4. December 18, 2009 at

      Will: how many teams Can win without those big saves? The Oilers of ’06 were solid from the goalie out but it was a nightmare before Roli showed up and caught fire.

      I can remember all the big saves JDD made in the first four games of that streak – he made two or three at Stl as well but he also let in two shitty goals – but I think most clubs are gonna have to get that kind of performance in order for them to win. Fuck, even Osgood had to be good the last time the Wings won the Cup:)

    5. Will
      December 18, 2009 at

      Dennis: agreed, THIS was the game that needed the rant :-)

      12 + 32 + 46 beating up on other 4th lines looked good. Wonder if we’ll ever see that again or whether 12 has scored his way out of the bottom lines. Thing is, is he good enough to outscore other teams’ better lines at EV? I’m not convinced.

    6. dawgbone
      December 18, 2009 at

      Will, I’m almost willing to bet Row Bear had some sort of injury that’s hampered him over the last year (be it a knee tweak or something).

      He’s got his wheels back, something he didn’t have for a long time. He’s still too reluctant to shoot (see the 2 on 1 with Horcoff), but he’s doing a lot of good things.

      There was one play last night where the was a loose puck along the boards in the Oilers end. Nilsson came down hard from the point (beating his man), got the puck, escaped another check and skated it all the way back behind his net. Many guys in that situation just try and force the backhand on the boards to try and get it out, Nilsson made a hard play and got the puck to safety.

      He hasn’t played this well since the 2nd half of 07-08, where he was probably the 3rd best forward on the team.

    7. Quain
      December 18, 2009 at

      Yeah, in wins a goalie will always look hot just because he didn’t let in the losing goal. The problem is JDD doesn’t look hot often enough.

      JDD’s Rolling ESSV%:

      0.958
      0.959
      0.932
      0.898
      0.886
      0.912
      0.916
      0.915
      0.907
      0.913
      0.917
      0.919
      0.920
      0.920
      0.917
      0.910

      Obviously it’s a small sample size, but he just ran off a gorgeous stretch of wins… and he still barely got up to acceptable in terms of ESSV%. Right now he’s sitting 50th out of 67 in terms of ESSV%, he’s the ninth worst among goalies with 10+ GS. The scary part of all this? His PKSV% ranks 9th best among guys with 10+ GS (12th overall); is anyone comfortable declaring that his (or the PK’s) true talent level?

      I’m convinced that we have a below average goaltender manning the pipes. It’s to the point that not only do we need to figure out how to not get outshot/chanced, we need to actually outshoot and outchance to have an EVEN chance of winning, because our goaltending is going to be letting them in at a below average rate.

      Would anyone even lay money on this team playing the next 49 as a net 0.0 in terms of shooting differential? I wouldn’t. We’re screwed.

    8. Dennis
      December 18, 2009 at

      DB: I would argue that there is something to save with 12 but he has to keep scoring because every now of them he’s gonna make a chancey play that’s probably in his DNA – perhaps even literally:) – and that might lead to a glorious scoring chance against and then that colours the good.

      The killer for me is that this version of 12 could be the LW on a 10-83 line but we either haven’t seen that tried long enough or when we did Nilsson got the yips.

      But maybe you’re explanation carries a lot of water and he’s been hurting for awhile.

      If he doesn’t make it in the league he’ll be the most skilled player that I ever watched as an Oiler who didn’t.

    9. Quain
      December 18, 2009 at

      Do we know why 10-12-32 was broken up so quickly? They were kicking out the jams last game and it looks like they got barely a period before 10-12-19 came back to life. I don’t recall anything egregious, and the chances looked to be only 1/3 before that (which is expected given that they were, for the most part, hard matching the Arnott line).

      And, on that note, am I wrong in thinking that, given the makeup of this team, that power vs power is the way to go? The Horcoff line doesn’t have the strength to hold off a fully manned Arnott line, wouldn’t you be better off trying to outscore them with the Penner line? Instead the game essentially became a question of could Penner’s line score more against Nashville’s checking line than Arnott’s line did against the Horcoff line.

    10. David S
      December 18, 2009 at

      Man I love your game reviews Dennis!

      I think the thing with the Horcoff line is that while the resurgent Nilsson is going to get his chances, the overall success of the line depends on Horcoff. It seems we can gauge his health (thus ability to contribute) by the number of faceoffs he’s taking. To my eye he wasn’t in the circle very much last night (even the crappy PPV color guys were commenting on it). My guess is that he’s one hit away from the operating room.

      If the Horcoff line isn’t producing early, it looks like Quinn knows what the deal is and makes the adjustments on the fly because he knows Horcoff is going to be an anchor for Nilsson otherwise.

    11. dawgbone
      December 18, 2009 at

      Dennis, the only reason I suggest injury is because he’s got a gear back in his game that has been missing for the better part of a season. He’s hit the neutral zone with some impressive speed quite a few times lately, something that wasn’t noticable over the last year (even in spurts).

      That’s one part of Nilsson’s game that gets under-rated a lot… just how fast he can be (especially with the puck).

      But yeah, he does need to bring the offense a lot, but he can (and has shown) that he can play in all 3 zones. He basically carried the kid line defensively, and when he moves his feet, he wins a lot of puck battles just because he’s there so much sooner than anyone else.

      I was a believer of him in 07-08 (especially when he turned the corner and had a good stretch of about 50 games). Last year was just a bad year right from the get go, and it carried through his first dozen or so games this season. He isn’t completely out of the woods, but his arrows are pointing the right way these last few games (even with the odd high risk play).

    12. Dennis
      December 18, 2009 at

      Someone somewhere recently said that the word sublime’s overused and I certainly agree with that.

      But, 12′s one who guy who really does have sublime skill and he also occasionally shows the willingness to battle so the last seven games have given us a bit of a reason to believe again.

    13. December 18, 2009 at

      Of course with Robert the issue is always sustain and as Ty’s last post title says …

      ;)

      He had a terrific run for about two and a half months in 06 but his career was pretty well on the line and then he got his contract and last year was a mess, maybe he was injured, but even last year there were spurts of five, six, seven games where he looked good and then he dropped off

      And I think he gets less rope because that drives coaches nuts.

      Anyways here’s hoping that he’s found his groove and that he keeps it going.

    14. December 20, 2009 at

      The killer for me is that this version of 12 could be the LW on a 10-83 line but we either haven’t seen that tried long enough or when we did Nilsson got the yips.

      And even then, with two almost-legit lines, the bottom six would be a mess.

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