• Irrational Exuberance

    by  • October 24, 2009 • Uncategorized • 10 Comments

    From Lowetide’s HFesque 6-2-1 revelry thread:

    The team must have a great locker-room right now given a) the wins and b) how well they’re compensating for each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Some stats might be unsustainable, but honestly, those can be compensated for as well.

    Me? I look at the last 9 games and rather than seeing unsustainable numbers or a weak schedule I see proof that it’s at least possible for the team to play and/or win at this level. They might fail miserably, or they might take the div/cup, but at this point they’ve at least shown that they *can* hit that top end, and frankly, that’s all I care about.

    The Oilers have been outshot 300-226 to date. I’ve had my head buried in other matters, but about all you can take from the results to date is that any team can get results in a short period. You can get a quick and dirty feel for this by just adding up a team’s save percentage and shooting percentage for a given span of games. The Bruins led the league in shooting percentage and save percentage last year; they added up to 103.4%. The Oilers are currently at 107.3%. I haven’t seen enough games to really have any opinions about what’s going on but you don’t make the playoffs like this. The shooting rates will presumably get closer over time; 300-226 is horrific, but it’ll take a lot to make up for the percentages falling back to earth. Gabe Desjardins has a fine post along the same lines here.

    The record’s all fine and well and the Oilers are close enough that the bounces are probably going to be the difference between making and missing the playoffs, so this may well prove to be an important stretch, but anyone advancing an argument that this has anything to do with the coaching change is effectively arguing that the coaching change is driving the shooting percentage to a ridiculous level. It just does not work this way. At this stage of the year, the points matter but as far as telling us something about the team, the shots ratio is probably the most relevant indicator and it’s not good.


    10 Responses to Irrational Exuberance

    1. October 24, 2009 at

      Whether the Shooting Percentage sustainable or not (and it is not) the points are in the bank and the guys have had a chance to taste success. These are good things, compared to the alternatives.

      The puck has no memory chip that causes an equal-amplitude variance below the sustainable line to offset the happy variance above the sustainable line.

      So let’s expect average from here forward in terms of statistical performance, and slightly above average for a while in terms of self-confidence, and enjoy the ride.

      • Pele
        May 31, 2013 at

        Sigh. Gas is just overcooked oil, so yah, seieng as the Arabian Peninsula is just one giant ancient seabed blessed with oil captured in super porous and permeable rock, there’s 100% probability of finding gas. In fact oil and gas are found together and Arabia flares its gas since it has little use for it. Unless the gas reservoir is enormous enough to build a plant to liquify it, it’s not worth it to find gas in a distant place like SA because gases are not easily transported.It certainly is worthwhile to look for gas in Mexico because there is a huge market next door that could use economically produced natural gas. And why not look for natural gas in ‘stranded’ markets if finding a cheap source means the establishment of a successful chemical industry? The point is that tight gas in shale formations is not economic and will not be economic with the technology that is being used. But, see, the Saudis are exceptionally savvy when it comes to the commodity that accounts for almost 100% of their output. So, if there’s a reason to go poking around for gas, you better believe they’ll be doing it. I agree. The Saudis see no problem with capital destruction in the shale sector. By reducing the likelihood of finding an acceptable alternative it strengthens their position.You’ve got a lot of malarkey in your comment about reservoir pressures and depletion rates too.Really? If you look at the typical shale formation well you will see massive depletion rates. That is a fact that cannot be offset by a few good wells in the core areas of the best formations. Don’t drag anyone else into this “we” thing. If you think it’s such an awesome idea, then go for it. Stop yammering about what “we” need to do, raise the capital and do it. I am investing my money in viable production from unconventional sources. My point is that destroying capital on uneconomic shale winds up reducing wealth.

    2. R O
      October 24, 2009 at

      Where are you in Croatia, MC? I went to Dubrovnik last year and it was awesome.

    3. October 24, 2009 at

      Didn’t we start 6-2 a couple of years ago.

      How did that turn out?

      - Mustafa Hirji

    4. October 24, 2009 at

      They started 1983 7-2-1. That turned out ok. What was your point?

    5. October 24, 2009 at

      What was your point?

      That neither good start proves a thing. You just aided the argument.

    6. RiversQ
      October 25, 2009 at

      Funny, I just looked at this the other day too. 107.3% is a lot.

      I dunno, I’m not buying this team yet either but they have kept things reasonably close by the chances so it’s not all magic. At the same time they haven’t smoked anyone yet either and that includes the NSH game.

    7. October 25, 2009 at

      Shots are one thing, chances are another. They’ve been reasonably close.

      Last night’s second period was pretty standard stuff for the Oilers early last season, badly outplayed, sometimes taking a beating, sometimes getting lucky.

      I’ve seen most of the games this year, for once, and except for Chicago after about ten minutes and the second yesterday not too much sticks in my mind as an example of this club just being severely outmatched.

      They have a ways to go but considering the injuries/flu bug as well I think they have made progress.

    8. October 25, 2009 at

      >What was your point?

      >That neither good start proves a thing. You just aided the argument

      That actually is my point. Commenting that the record this year looks like some other year’s record at the same time is meaningless.

    9. October 25, 2009 at

      The Oilers’ scoring chance ratio is currently 0.84 (169 For, 201 Against).

      That’s better than their shot ratio, but not by a lot.

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