• Scoring chances for/against: April 7th: LA at Edm

    by  • April 7, 2009 • Uncategorized • 13 Comments

    Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 21193

    Team Period Time Note Oilers Opponent  
    EDM 1 19:31 19 12 19 35 37 77 89 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    LAK 1 19:05 Goal 12 19 35 37 77 89 3 11 17 24 32 44 5v5
    LAK 1 18:19 10 21 24 35 44 83 3 6 11 14 24 32 5v5
    LAK 1 16:16 12 19 35 37 77 89 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    LAK 1 16:14 Goal 12 19 35 37 77 89 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    EDM 1 16:01 21 10 21 24 35 44 83 8 11 14 24 32 44 5v5
    LAK 1 15:15 10 18 24 34 35 44 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    EDM 1 11:49 89 12 19 35 37 77 89 2 17 21 23 26 32 5v5
    EDM 1 10:50 PP 83 10 35 37 44 83 89 6 8 17 26 32 5v4
    EDM 1 9:01 46 27 35 44 46 51 77 6 17 21 22 26 32 5v5
    EDM 1 3:06 18 10 18 34 35 44 77 2 5 13 21 32 41 5v5
    LAK 2 14:38 12 19 35 37 77 89 2 17 22 23 32 44 5v5
    EDM 2 13:52 51 24 27 35 46 49 51 3 5 6 13 32 41 5v5
    EDM 2 13:31 83 10 21 35 43 49 83 3 5 6 13 32 41 5v5
    EDM 2 11:44 27 27 35 37 46 51 77 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    LAK 2 10:19 10 18 24 34 35 44 3 6 14 22 24 32 5v5
    EDM 2 9:15 12 12 19 35 37 77 89 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    EDM 2 9:11 19 12 19 35 37 77 89 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    EDM 2 9:09 89 12 19 35 37 77 89 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    LAK 2 8:44 10 21 24 35 44 83 3 6 11 14 24 32 5v5
    EDM 2 5:27 10 10 19 35 43 49 83 8 11 15 32 44 54 5v5
    EDM 2 3:31 Goal 34 13 18 34 35 37 77 2 17 21 23 26 32 5v5
    EDM 2 1:53 19 12 19 35 43 49 89 5 8 13 15 32 44 5v5
    LAK 2 0:48 10 21 24 35 44 83 3 11 14 21 24 32 5v5
    LAK 2 0:47 10 21 24 35 44 83 3 11 14 21 24 32 5v5
    LAK 3 19:47 12 19 35 37 77 89 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    EDM 3 15:35 51 24 27 35 44 46 51 3 11 17 21 23 32 5v5
    EDM 3 15:05 24 10 21 24 35 44 83 2 11 14 21 24 32 5v5
    LAK 3 14:41 13 18 34 35 37 77 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    LAK 3 14:18 13 18 34 35 37 77 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    EDM 3 7:29 13 13 18 24 34 35 37 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    EDM 3 7:06 18 13 18 34 35 37 77 8 17 23 26 32 44 5v5
    EDM 3 6:36 21 10 21 35 37 77 83 3 5 6 15 22 32 5v5
    EDM 3 1:02 37 10 21 37 44 77 83 8 11 14 24 32 44 5v5
    # Player EV PP SH
    10 S. HORCOFF 17:44 7 6 2:53 1 0 0:00 0 0
    12 R. NILSSON 13:47 6 5 2:33 0 0 0:00 0 0
    13 A. COGLIANO 9:40 3 2 2:58 0 0 0:00 0 0
    18 E. MOREAU 12:52 4 4 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    19 P. O’SULLIVAN 15:57 7 5 2:33 0 0 0:00 0 0
    21 A. KOTALIK 18:22 5 4 2:23 0 0 0:00 0 0
    24 S. STAIOS 20:00 5 6 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    27 D. PENNER 7:28 4 0 0:09 0 0 0:00 0 0
    34 F. PISANI 13:27 4 4 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    35 D. ROLOSON 53:13 19 13 6:00 1 0 0:00 0 0
    37 D. GREBESHKOV 22:17 11 7 3:28 1 0 0:00 0 0
    43 J. STRUDWICK 11:54 3 0 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    44 S. SOURAY 21:24 6 6 3:19 1 0 0:00 0 0
    46 Z. STORTINI 8:18 4 0 0:31 0 0 0:00 0 0
    49 T. PECKHAM 11:22 4 0 0:10 0 0 0:00 0 0
    51 K. BRODZIAK 10:18 4 0 0:09 0 0 0:00 0 0
    77 T. GILBERT 21:47 12 7 2:40 0 0 0:00 0 0
    83 A. HEMSKY 17:53 6 4 2:56 1 0 0:00 0 0
    89 S. GAGNER 16:17 6 5 3:18 1 0 0:00 0 0
    Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
    1 6 5 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2 9 5 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    3 6 3 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Totals 21 13 20 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    13 Responses to Scoring chances for/against: April 7th: LA at Edm

    1. April 7, 2009 at

      It’s interesting to note that with the club being a +7 on the night in scoring chances for/against, the biggest separation came from the 27-51-46 line which went a collective 12/0 in terms of SCF/A.

      A couple of notes to finish:

      - for as much as Roli carried the club, there were a helluva lot of questionable goals finding their way into the Oilers net in the last few weeks of the season. Roli was otherworldly in the win at Ana but outside of that you had at least two games where he put the Oilers in an early jackpot – at Phx and tonight vs LA – plus an awful goal vs Minny and a couple of poor ones vs the Ducks. Was the guy tired? I imagine so. Still, it falls on the Oilers for not having a backup netminder that MacT trusted and because this wasn’t the case, Roli was played into the ground and because he was played into the ground, you won’t hear tell of all the soft goals that I mentioned above.

      - I’m heading home sometime this weekend to spend some time with my elderly mother – she lives with one of my older sisters but she loves the chance to spend some time in the old family home and she does that when I’m there with her for company – and I’m probably gonna head home on Friday. We don’t have a dish or an internet connection at my old place so that means I won’t see that game and Sat night’s game is in question as well because it won’t mean anything and I might just go out and catch up with some friends.

      In the meantime, I think I’ve provided enough of a sample wise, ~ 77 games thus far, that the numbers guys can take what they wish from all the work. So, if this is the last game I log for the year, I’d like to thank all who read and/or commented and if this is the ’09 end, I’ll see you fellows back here for the ’10 season.

    2. Will
      April 7, 2009 at

      Thanks for all the work Dennis. I look forward to seeing some of the analyses that come out of these numbers.

    3. coach pb
      April 8, 2009 at

      Dennis, I know a few people have done the SC stuff before and tracked closely to you – put a post up and ask for a volunteer.

    4. April 8, 2009 at

      Thanks Dennis. I’ve done this before and it’s a battle. You did yeoman’s work here this year. I’m going to try and pair it up with the game state stuff over the summer.

      There’s been kind of a running theme of the Oilers having bad starts the past few years. I sort of wonder if it’s that they do a lot better when they get down a goal or two and the other team starts sitting back.

      FYI – if you do ever decide you want a complete set, my GameCentre subscription has all of the games archived.

    5. April 8, 2009 at

      Coach: I’m sure Scott will come in and post season totals when he gets a chance.

    6. April 8, 2009 at

      Yeah Dennis, I’ll wait until the season is done in case you do either of the last two games, but then when it’s all over I’ll throw the season totals up.

    7. Vic Ferrari
      April 8, 2009 at

      Great work all year, Dennis.

      Correlation of SCF/SCA to Corsi+/Corsi- was huge last time I checked. This for all players with over 25 games in Oiler colours.

      I haven`t done the math, and it`s not easy, but I should be able to model a best fit curve to estimate the quality of scoring chances as well. Intuitively, looking at the numbers in aggregate, I think we`ll see that you were right to ignore my advice and do this in binary fashion, that the quality of scoring chances is a tight distribution.

      SCF/SCA also had a strong correlation with GF/GA last I checked. .7 iirc. In most parallel universes that was lower, but I suppose that with it working out this way you maybe got chided at a bit less than the parallel universe Dennis`. :D

      The other thing is that scoring chances beget scoring chances. I don`t know how well ZoneShift will mesh with Nielsen`s “who was on the ice X minutes/seconds before the scoring chance”.

      And with the scoring chances meshing with the shots metrics even more than expected, I think we should be able to generate better and more repeatable opp and player quality numbers using the shots metrics.

      And the Oilers bottom D pair has taken a bath, I suspect, because the Oilers forward depth was weak this year. And though I suspect that the Oilers will go big game hunting this summer, they really should be making decisions on a few of the youngsters, and looking for this summer`s Rene Bourque, Raffi Torres, Marty Reasoner, Curtis Glencross, etc types.

      And the Oilers don`t ice the puck enough, probably because 89 and 13 are afraid of own zone draws. And it`s hurt their numbers and those of the guys coming over the boards for the next shift. A lot.

    8. David Staples
      April 8, 2009 at

      Dennis, if there’s two quick shots from the slots in rapid succession, do you count that as two scoring chances, or one?

      Say a good shot from the high slot, screened by Gagner, then a rebound and a quick shot by Gagner.

      That’s one scoring sequence, but do you count it as one or two scoring chances?

    9. Vic Ferrari
      April 8, 2009 at

      The other thing that is terrific about what you have done, Dennis, is provide a hard record of events and dissenters.

      People have questioned your methodology, but it was extremely rare that the Oilers were outchanced 25-15 at evens (or vice versa) and people disagreed that the flow of play contradicted that.

      It`s important because, for example, if we`d had these scoring chances for the tail end of last season, then the accidental revisionists from the eastern hemisphere of the Oiler blogworld wouldn`t have a leg to stand on. They wouldn`t have chimed in on the day because you were right in measure, and they would just have appeared foolish. So they could just go back to their own patch and let Staples empower them, and leave us to ours. As it should be.

    10. Dennis
      April 8, 2009 at

      Staples: I would count that as two scoring chances. Pucks directed within a sensible distance of the net are deemed chances by my metric; which, honestly, lends a lot of credit towards Corsi.

      Vic: Yes, going forward this stuff will carry more weight as the years increase. For instance, if my numbers have any merit whatsoever, there’s no way 18 could post similar plus/minus numbers while posting a similar chance differential.

      I don’t think it’s possible.

      Also, 89 could have a big year and it wouldn’t surprise me and 78 could be a valuable top niner and we could say that we sorta saw it coming and it would’ve came quicker with a different coach.

    11. Vic Ferrari
      April 8, 2009 at

      The other way to look at it Dennis, is using the detached parallel universe guys. Some guys, in the right measure, will get better results than they deserve, and others vice versa.

      I mean some bugger is bound to get lucky two years in a row, again in the right measure. As long as it is the right number of guys, and there is no repeatability in the “òutperforming scoring chances” phenomenon (and there won`t be, because the world is round) then it`s sorted.

    12. April 8, 2009 at

      Dennis: You deserve all the credit in the world for seeing this through the entire season. That’s one hell of a project, bud. Thanks for sharing.

    13. Pingback: Oilers fan on the verge of a nervous breakdown | Edmonton Journal

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