This has come up in the comments to one of Dennis’ scoring chance posts and I’ve actually had someone email and ask me what I thought about it, so I thought I’d throw up the chart now.
What you’re looking at is each team’s ratio of ES SF/SA for 2003-2008, based on the game state at the time. As you’ll see, there’s some pretty solid evidence that teams sit back when they’re leading. I’ll do a lengthier post when I have more time but enough people have asked about it that I wanted to get it up. Of note: I am not at all convinced that it’s a good strategy.