• Scoring chances for/against: Mar 29th: Min vs Edm

    by  • March 29, 2009 • Uncategorized • 10 Comments

    Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 21132

    Team Period Time Note Oilers Opponent  
    MIN 1 16:21 19 27 35 37 77 89 5 11 20 32 47 51 5v5
    EDM 1 16:09 27 19 27 35 37 77 89 5 11 20 32 47 51 5v5
    MIN 1 15:47 19 27 35 37 77 89 11 22 32 36 41 51 5v5
    MIN 1 12:59 Goal 18 19 24 35 44 51 3 10 15 32 41 51 5v5
    EDM 1 12:26 21 5 10 21 35 43 83 5 19 22 25 32 55 5v5
    EDM 1 12:25 83 5 10 21 35 43 83 5 19 22 25 32 55 5v5
    EDM 1 12:15 21 5 10 21 35 43 83 5 19 22 25 32 55 5v5
    MIN 1 11:22 19 27 35 37 77 89 11 20 32 41 47 51 5v5
    MIN 1 11:08 Goal 19 27 35 37 77 89 11 20 32 36 41 51 5v5
    MIN 1 9:34 10 21 24 35 44 83 5 9 10 15 32 55 5v5
    EDM 1 3:46 89 13 18 24 34 35 44 3 9 12 20 32 41 5v5
    MIN 1 2:58 19 27 35 37 77 89 9 11 20 32 41 47 5v5
    EDM 1 11:50 89 19 27 35 37 77 89 3 11 20 32 47 51 5v5
    EDM 2 19:03 PP 27 27 35 37 44 83 89 5 19 25 32 55 5v4
    EDM 2 17:56 PP 19 10 13 19 21 35 77 3 22 25 32 55 5v4
    MIN 2 15:55 PP 10 18 35 43 77 9 11 20 25 32 41 4v5
    MIN 2 14:28 5 22 35 43 46 51 12 32 36 39 41 51 5v5
    EDM 2 13:35 51 19 24 27 35 37 51 11 12 32 41 47 49 5v5
    MIN 2 12:57 10 19 24 27 35 44 3 9 11 20 32 47 5v5
    MIN 2 11:04 10 21 24 35 44 83 3 5 19 22 25 32 5v5
    EDM 2 8:01 13 13 21 34 35 37 77 11 20 32 36 41 51 5v5
    MIN 2 6:03 19 27 35 37 77 89 19 20 25 32 47 55 5v5
    MIN 2 4:05 13 18 34 35 37 44 9 10 15 32 47 55 5v5
    EDM 2 3:30 44 13 18 34 35 37 44 10 15 25 32 47 55 5v5
    MIN 2 2:12 PP 10 18 24 35 44 3 10 11 32 47 51 4v5
    MIN 2 0:58 PP 10 18 35 37 77 5 10 11 32 41 51 4v5
    MIN 3 19:21 13 18 34 35 37 77 5 10 20 32 51 55 5v5
    MIN 3 19:16 13 18 34 35 37 77 5 11 20 32 47 51 5v5
    EDM 3 18:56 Goal 34 13 18 34 35 37 77 5 11 20 32 47 51 5v5
    MIN 3 15:47 Goal 19 24 27 35 44 89 5 10 11 20 41 51 5v5
    MIN 3 14:37 PK 27 35 37 44 83 89 3 19 25 32 41 5v4
    EDM 3 11:58 10 22 24 34 35 44 51 5 10 11 32 51 55 5v5
    MIN 3 9:08 22 24 35 46 51 77 3 9 10 15 32 55 5v5
    EDM 3 8:43 51 22 24 35 44 46 51 5 12 32 39 47 49 5v5
    EDM 3 7:18 13 13 18 34 35 37 77 5 11 20 32 41 51 5v5
    EDM 3 4:52 Goal 21 10 21 35 37 77 83 5 9 10 15 32 55 5v5
    EDM 3 2:54 24 10 19 21 24 35 44 5 11 20 32 51 55 5v5
    EDM 3 2:52 24 10 19 21 24 35 44 5 11 20 32 51 55 5v5
    EDM 3 2:13 21 10 21 35 44 77 83 5 19 22 25 32 55 5v5
    EDM 3 2:11 10 10 21 35 44 77 83 5 19 22 25 32 55 5v5
    EDM 3 1:24 34 13 18 34 35 37 77 3 11 20 32 41 51 5v5
    EDM 3 1:22 13 13 18 34 35 37 77 3 11 20 32 41 51 5v5
    # Player EV PP SH
    5 L. SMID 6:06 3 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    10 S. HORCOFF 16:12 8 3 2:18 1 0 3:38 0 3
    13 A. COGLIANO 11:17 7 3 2:23 1 0 0:00 0 0
    18 E. MOREAU 11:30 6 4 0:19 0 0 2:28 0 3
    19 P. O’SULLIVAN 11:41 5 9 2:20 1 0 2:15 0 0
    21 A. KOTALIK 17:22 9 2 2:30 1 0 0:05 0 0
    22 J. JACQUES 7:39 2 2 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    24 S. STAIOS 17:11 6 6 0:07 0 0 3:02 0 1
    27 D. PENNER 10:59 3 8 3:19 1 1 0:00 0 0
    34 F. PISANI 13:03 8 3 0:07 0 0 1:52 0 0
    35 D. ROLOSON 47:03 20 16 5:56 2 1 5:56 0 3
    37 D. GREBESHKOV 21:26 10 9 3:29 1 1 1:47 0 1
    43 J. STRUDWICK 11:51 3 1 0:00 0 0 1:18 0 1
    44 S. SOURAY 20:59 8 6 3:56 1 1 2:57 0 1
    46 Z. STORTINI 7:12 1 2 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    51 K. BRODZIAK 7:35 3 3 0:00 0 0 1:31 0 0
    77 T. GILBERT 18:46 10 9 2:00 1 0 2:48 0 2
    83 A. HEMSKY 16:34 6 2 3:29 1 1 0:00 0 0
    89 S. GAGNER 14:18 2 7 3:23 1 1 0:03 0 0
    Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
    1 6 7 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2 5 8 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
    3 11 5 11 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
    4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Totals 22 20 20 16 2 1 0 0 0 3 0 0

    10 Responses to Scoring chances for/against: Mar 29th: Min vs Edm

    1. March 29, 2009 at

      I know there’s already been a discussion here about this but the thing that seems to ring false about tonight’s scoring chance post is that teams that trail Should wind up posting a big win in the third period.

      The Oilers clocked in at 11-4 for the final frame and they posted the game’s last nine chances. So, they won the battle overall at EV and that will be reflected in the individual numbers of some of the players.

      Now, to flip that coin, Roli really had a poor game tonight and if Backstrom lags at all – and we can define “lagging” as letting in at least one suspect goal, the Oilers probably don’t lose until overtime or the shootout;)

      Anyway,Some things, and in no particular order:

      - not sure if anyone logs this stat but 18 has to lead the league in offensive zone penalties.

      - another dumb penalty by 44 and this one lead to Gaborik stepping on the ice to become the 6th attacked and the puck finds it’s way into the net.

      I just watched MacT’s press conference via the official site and he was frustrated and at times brutally honest in his assessment of players. Eventually he came around to the third period and he praised 18 for driving wide and 34 for going to the net and finishing. Now, here’s one of the biggest problems with the current Oilers regime and I’m afraid it runs deeper than just the ones in charge of making hockey decisions.

      For whatever reason, MacT has chosen to ignore all the bad things that Moreau brings onto the fortunes of the club and instead he praises him to no end. This indicates that the Oilers Aren’t a meritocracy and anytime we can feel justified in making such an accusation, there’s a great likelihood there’s more than one blind side that factors into the equation. If you’re a young player who was called out tonight or will be called out tomorrow while Moreau basks in the sun, do you honestly believe in the fairness and/or mental capacity of your coach?

      Furthermore, we are looking at the distinct possibility of three years in a row of missing the playoffs and the owner’s a guy who grew up on the glory Oilers and seems perfectly comfortable letting them continue to steer the ship. Also, to see from his point of view, if the fans continue to fill the house regardless, do you really care if you miss the playoffs? Sure, you miss playoff revenue but you’re still raking it in for 41 gates a season.

      Things look bleak for the ’09 season and the sky doesn’t appear to be any less cloudless in the future if you feel that coaching and management has anything to do with why we Haven’t enjoyed a playoff game in three years.

      Other than that, we’ll always have the 80′s.

    2. slipper
      March 30, 2009 at

      They were pretty much fucked when their best defenseman went down. But that was how long ago now?

      This team has sucked for most of the season and has been surviving on luck, so I guess I’m stretched to wrap my head around all this pent up outrage.

    3. slipper
      March 30, 2009 at

      I’d like to add that I don’t see next season as being nearly as abysmal as the past two. Surely the Oilers are a playoff team next season.

      Unless they sign Raycroft and Budaj to play net.

    4. David Staples
      March 30, 2009 at

      You make a good point about the loss of Visnovsky, slipper, but I’d ask: are you sure the Oilers done everything to maximize their luck this year?

      With more chances comes more luck. With more aggression comes more luck.

      So as the forward lines often don’t make sense, and as Stortini sits out, and as Moreau takes penalties and blows up the penalty kill, as Glencross is let go, and as Garon — who is at least a solid back-up — is traded, and as a utility defencemen isn’t brought in, many of us see these seemingly endless and odd things and we wonder if the Oil’s ability to generate “luck” hasn’t been all that it might be.

      Of course, many good things have happened this year, and if you’re saying it will be better next year when Gagner and Cogliano are even better, then I agree with you. Still, this team was built to win now, with the signing and trading for veteran players like Moreau, Staios, Horcoff, Souray and Visnovsky, so that’s how it’s going to be judged, and rightly so.

    5. namflashback
      March 30, 2009 at

      I guess the other positive for next year (its all we got, now) is that JFJ seems to have figured something out.

      As futile as his points per game played in the NHL seems, its easy to forget that over 50 of those GP came in that awful season of 06-07.

      In last nights game, I think Clusterbuck started to tone down his antics when he realized there were some Oilers who were hitting too.

    6. hunter1909
      March 30, 2009 at

      “If you’re a young player who was called out tonight or will be called out tomorrow while Moreau basks in the sun, do you honestly believe in the fairness and/or mental capacity of your coach?”

      Absolutely not! What you have is the equivalency of my old cub scout pack, who were led by a fat kid with coke bottle glasses, who also happened to be the son of the pack leader.

      “Surely the Oilers are a playoff team next season.”

      Oh yeah? And I suppose this season they are/were still a contender for the division, as advertised?

      My faint hopes of a decent to great potential playoff run died the day Visnovsky went out. Up until then the team had a really really good top four defence, and very little else.

      I stopped watching the actual games around five of them ago. Should they return MacTavish for next season, or get a loser like Renney to dither away(I’m a 100% bandwagon Ranger fan and know what I’m on about here), I’m probably finished with hockey for a very long time.

      PS: How do you make this site, with it’s incrediby detailed analysis? (I’m mathematically illiterate, despite scraping through a first year college calculus course).

    7. March 30, 2009 at

      Slipper: This was more of a reflection of the frustration I felt after having listened to MacT speak glowingly of 18′s effort in last night’s game.

    8. March 30, 2009 at

      “I know there’s already been a discussion here about this but the thing that seems to ring false about tonight’s scoring chance post is that teams that trail Should wind up posting a big win in the third period.”

      Personally, this is something that I’ve been wondering about.

      I think it’s been demonstrated that — at least at Even Strength — shot differential varies as a function of which team happens to be leading or trailing over the course of a game.

      To what extent is this also true of scoring chance differential, in that there exists a bias in favor of the trailing team?

      If so, then surely scoring chance quality is also relevant, as the leading team tends to enjoy a shooting percentage advantage over the trailing team. So if the trailing team does tend to win the scoring chance battle for the period in which they’re behind, then the leading/trailing effect would have to influence Scoring Chance:Goal ratio.

      And if it isn’t the case, and the trailing team’s advantage applies only to shots and not scoring chances, then that would make sense, given the shooting percentage disparity.

      Has anyone looked into this?

    9. Dennis
      March 30, 2009 at

      JL: Well, there’s nearly a whole season’s worth of Oilers date to mull over.

      Just from going through my hard notes, here’s a look at the Oilers last five third periods – and I’ll note whether they were trailing, tied or lead after 40.

      edm at min: 3-0 L:

      Oilers trailed 1-0 after 40 but were then outchanced 2-9 in the 3rd

      det at edm: 3-1 L:

      Oil lead after 40 and were outchanced 11-6 in the third period.

      Edm at phx: 3-2 L:

      Oil trailed 3-0 after and were outchanced 4-6 in the third period

      edm at ana: 4-3 W

      Oil lead 4-2 after 40 and were outchanced 2-15 in the third period.

      min at edm: 3-2 L

      Oil trail 2-0 after 40 but then outchance the Wild 11-5 in the third period.

      So, in three of the last five games – a small sample and I’m just throwing it out there – the trailing team carried the play in the third period.

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