• Scoring chances for/against: Mar 17: Stl at Edm

    by  • March 17, 2009 • Uncategorized • 9 Comments

    Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 21048

    Team Period Time Note Oilers Opponent  
    EDM 1 16:38 27 5 18 27 35 43 51 21 43 50 57 74 77 5v5
    EDM 1 15:30 19 10 19 35 37 77 83 5 7 18 20 46 50 5v5
    STL 1 14:53 12 21 35 44 77 89 10 22 29 42 50 77 5v5
    STL 1 10:44 5 13 34 35 43 85 21 28 43 50 57 74 5v5
    EDM 1 10:28 13 13 34 35 37 77 85 21 28 43 50 57 74 5v5
    EDM 1 9:57 34 13 34 35 37 77 85 21 28 43 50 57 74 5v5
    EDM 1 9:31 PP Goal 44 27 35 37 44 83 89 5 13 18 46 50 5v4
    EDM 1 8:42 19 5 19 35 43 51 83 10 22 29 42 50 77 5v5
    STL 1 8:23 5 10 19 35 43 83 5 7 15 26 46 50 5v5
    STL 1 8:13 5 10 19 35 43 83 5 7 15 26 46 50 5v5
    EDM 1 8:04 10 10 19 35 37 77 83 5 7 15 26 46 50 5v5
    EDM 1 7:26 27 18 24 27 35 44 51 10 22 29 42 50 77 5v5
    STL 1 7:06 18 24 27 35 44 51 10 22 29 42 50 77 5v5
    STL 1 6:04 13 24 34 35 44 85 10 22 28 42 43 50 5v5
    STL 1 5:27 5 12 21 35 43 89 21 29 50 57 74 77 5v5
    STL 1 2:43 24 27 34 35 44 51 10 22 42 43 50 77 5v5
    STL 1 0:41 10 34 35 37 77 85 5 10 22 28 42 50 5v5
    STL 2 18:23 PP 10 19 24 35 44 10 22 28 42 50 74 4v5
    STL 2 18:04 PP 10 19 24 35 44 10 22 28 42 50 74 4v5
    STL 2 17:57 PP Goal 10 19 24 35 44 10 22 28 42 50 74 4v5
    EDM 2 14:41 21 5 12 21 35 43 89 21 29 50 57 74 77 5v5
    EDM 2 14:31 51 5 18 27 35 43 51 13 15 18 29 50 77 5v5
    EDM 2 12:44 PP 89 27 35 37 44 83 89 5 13 18 46 50 5v4
    EDM 2 11:37 PP 19 10 12 19 35 44 77 10 26 43 50 77 5v4
    STL 2 10:13 5 24 27 35 51 85 5 15 42 46 50 57 5v5
    STL 2 6:07 18 27 35 43 44 51 5 13 15 26 46 50 5v5
    EDM 2 5:24 34 5 13 34 35 43 85 7 18 20 28 43 50 5v5
    EDM 2 4:11 10 10 19 24 35 44 83 10 22 29 42 50 77 5v5
    STL 2 3:28 10 18 35 37 77 10 22 28 42 50 74 4v5
    STL 3 18:47 12 21 35 37 77 89 7 18 20 29 50 77 5v5
    STL 3 17:27 5 18 27 35 43 51 10 22 28 29 42 50 5v5
    STL 3 16:48 19 24 27 35 44 51 10 18 20 29 50 77 5v5
    EDM 3 16:12 19 10 19 35 37 77 83 5 18 20 46 50 57 5v5
    EDM 3 11:04 83 19 35 37 77 83 5 7 20 43 50 4v4
    EDM 3 11:03 83 19 35 37 77 83 5 7 20 43 50 4v4
    EDM 3 10:45 34 10 34 35 44 77 5 10 20 43 50 4v4
    EDM 3 7:04 83 10 19 35 37 77 83 5 7 18 20 46 50 5v5
    EDM 3 5:00 SH 44 10 35 44 77 85 10 22 28 42 50 74 4v5
    STL 3 4:38 PP 10 35 44 51 77 7 10 22 28 50 74 4v5
    STL 3 2:44 5 18 27 35 43 51 7 15 29 50 74 77 5v5
    EDM 3 0:55 13 13 24 34 35 44 85 18 20 26 29 50 77 5v5
    STL 4 4:39 19 35 37 77 83 5 18 20 46 50 4v4
    STL 4 2:52 10 13 35 37 77 29 42 50 74 77 4v4
    EDM 4 1:04 13 10 13 24 35 44 28 29 42 50 74 4v4
    # Player EV PP SH
    5 L. SMID 15:44 5 7 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    10 S. HORCOFF 17:03 7 4 2:04 1 0 3:18 1 5
    12 R. NILSSON 12:06 1 3 2:17 1 0 0:00 0 0
    13 A. COGLIANO 11:59 5 3 0:17 0 0 0:00 0 0
    18 E. MOREAU 11:02 3 4 0:00 0 0 1:21 0 1
    19 P. O’SULLIVAN 19:07 8 4 2:17 1 0 0:36 0 3
    21 A. KOTALIK 10:16 1 3 2:03 0 0 0:00 0 0
    24 S. STAIOS 20:41 4 5 0:20 0 0 3:29 0 3
    27 D. PENNER 10:43 3 7 3:00 2 0 0:00 0 0
    34 F. PISANI 12:26 5 4 0:17 0 0 2:04 0 0
    35 D. ROLOSON 53:48 18 17 5:21 3 0 5:35 1 5
    37 D. GREBESHKOV 18:10 8 4 2:54 2 0 2:33 0 1
    43 J. STRUDWICK 13:23 5 7 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
    44 S. SOURAY 20:21 5 6 3:34 3 0 3:02 1 4
    51 K. BRODZIAK 13:06 4 7 0:00 0 0 2:48 0 1
    77 T. GILBERT 20:00 9 5 1:51 1 0 2:06 1 2
    83 A. HEMSKY 18:03 8 3 2:47 2 0 0:00 0 0
    85 L. REDDOX 9:01 4 4 0:17 0 0 1:03 1 0
    89 S. GAGNER 11:24 1 3 2:47 2 0 0:00 0 0
    Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
    1 8 9 7 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2 6 6 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
    3 7 5 6 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
    4 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Totals 22 22 18 17 3 0 0 0 1 5 0 0

    9 Responses to Scoring chances for/against: Mar 17: Stl at Edm

    1. mc79hockey
      March 17, 2009 at

      83-10 are coming. You can just feel it, they’re getting their mojo back. If they can form a trio with 19, I like where they’re sitting.

    2. March 18, 2009 at

      Ty: they’ve honestly shaken me to the point where I have to see it to believe it. I mean, yes, I’ve seen them roll off some nice out-chancing stretches this season but 10′s been muffing so many birdies lately, I’m just apt to say, “fuck it, not gonna happen for him.”

      Anyway, when it comes to 10, I’ve seen it before. Very early in the ’07 season, he had the game-tying goal on his stick in Cgy and shot it on net only to hit the ass of a crease-sitting Lupul.

      And the luck was downhill from there.

      He needs to go back to that stick factory in Mexico and bathe in a vat of chicken blood.

      But, let’s say you’re right for a second;), 19 certainly looked like he might be a fit.

    3. March 18, 2009 at

      I was very happy with O’Sullivan’s game tonight. Very proactive. Hemsky still looks frustrated but skating well. He’s bound to break out, surely to goodness.

      Grebs with an excellent game tonight which is reflected here. Staios with an excellent game (at evens) which isn’t.

      The newly constructed fourth line, not so much.

    4. namflashback
      March 18, 2009 at

      I’m wondering if Horcoff had to switch back to stiffer sticks given all the F/O work he is taking.

    5. March 18, 2009 at

      The ice time doled out at EV is approaching Trent Yawney territory for the bottom three lines, although I was surprisingly encourage by that fact this evening.

      I was pleased to see Penner back on the PP. Hopefully he stays there so that we can use his body for screens. If your one play is going to be a shot from the point, you may as well create traffic in front of the net.

      The first line looked dangerous tonight which is a great sign going forward and we’re now up to four straight games of (barely) outchancing the opposition at EV! That’s the first time in a long time we’ve been able to say that. Too bad they couldn’t build up more points over that stretch but hopefully the good play continues.

    6. Vic Ferrari
      March 18, 2009 at

      Thanks for all this scoring chance stuff, Dennis. Just terrific.

      On the first line, I’m really impressed with O’Sullivan, I had no idea that he was this good of a hockey player. Penner was the best option before, which is akin to being the prettiest Sutter brother. But 19 looks for all the world like a bonafide difference maker at evens.

      Horcoff’s icetime is bordering on abusive at this point though, jebus. You guys have gotten me paying attention to faceoffs, beyond the zone, and it’s beyond reasonable at this point. They have him taking all the right side own zone draws against good players too. Using his forehand to try and win it to the boards, at least usually, went to his backhand against Stastny on the right home dot late in the game the other night though.

      And dude turns the play around a lot. I haven’t checked numbers in ages myself, but check the faceoffs.php and xfaceoffs.php and playershots.php stuff for this one, Dennnis. Off the hook for Horcoff.

      Having just run a few simple numbers so far (total scoring chances (+ and -) while a player was on the ice) that meshes with icetime extremely well. A correlation of .99 iirc, just as a convenient measure.

      And over just one game it meshes only moderately well with any territiorial advantage measure (corsi, fenwick, hits-by-zone, take/give-away by zone, puck over glass, etc.) … but over a bunch of games it meshes really well. Which makes sense.

      I don’t know if you’ve ever played snooker, but what you leave on the table is really important. And that’s obvious in that game. In hockey, it’s not as easy to see, and the guys getting the counting stats by their names … they owe a debt to the guys who played the shift before them. We all know that, of course, it’s the ‘how much’ that’s big here. And this will give us a reasonable measure of that.

      The thing that’s impressive is the similar level of quality of scoring chances as well. Looks like you were wise to ignore my advice on this count. We’ll hit that in a mathy way in the summer though, in a ‘no reasonable Oiler fan left behind’ kind of way. I’ll start with one roll of the dice at Yahtzee … build it from there. And if any of Lain, yourself, Tyler, Andy or Pat drop … I’ll bail on the project. Fair, no?

    7. March 18, 2009 at

      Vic: You don’t think I should eventually attach a different value to certain scoring chances? I’ve been sorta going back and forth on this and I’m looking for the math guys input.

      As for last night, I understand what the numbers guys say about the difference in 6th dmen but I get the willies when the 5/43 tandem is on the ice.

      More and more I think we should’ve used the 2nd rounder to shore up the blue.

    8. March 19, 2009 at

      Dennis: Or the PK, or the backup goaltending (and yes, I still think the Garon trade was a good move when it occured).

      Just my opinion, but I wouldn’t give a different value to different scoring chances. It’s a subjective (albeit rational – I have no issues with the number) study as it is, but when you start assigning points to different chances rather than a simple +/- I think you’re getting to an area where it’s too subjective.

    9. March 19, 2009 at

      Plus, of course, it’s probably much, much more work.

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