• Scoring chances — defencemen at even strength

    by  • January 25, 2009 • Uncategorized • 2 Comments

    [Part 1 of 4] 

       Dennis has been doing a terrific job counting up scoring chances (SC) throughout the season, and figuring out which Oilers were on the ice when they occurred. He has scored 42 of the 46 games to this point, missing just Nov 29 @STL, Dec 17 @VAN, Dec 26 @VAN, and Jan 9 vs. S.J.

       Scott has been keeping running totals of SC throughout the season. My contribution to the project is to parse those totals by ice time to try to establish a rate that SC occur, for and against, for each player and by each situation. The grunt work is deducting the TOI for the missed games from the season-to-date totals compiled at NHL.com. The fun part is working with the results.

       Since this post is something of a test drive for me (and thanks for the access, Tyler) let’s start by reviewing something already covered in the comments section of Dennis’s CBJ post, namely the results for defencemen at even strength. Here are the totals year-to-date, listed in order of EV TOI:

    Player EV TOI SCF/EV SCA/EV SCF/60 SCA/60 Net/60
    71 754.8 245 203 19.5 16.1 +3.3
    77 671.9 200 217 17.9 19.4 -1.5
    44 656.6 194 205 17.7 18.7 -1.0
    37 627.9 205 183 19.6 17.5 +2.1
    24 578.8 123 166 12.8 17.2 -4.5
    5 388.3 88 110 13.6 17.0 -3.4
    43 259 49 77 11.4 17.8 -6.5
    49 10.1 0 4 0 23.8 -23.8
    Team  3947.4 1104 1165 16.8 17.7 -0.9

       I have bolded the team leaders in various categories, and italicized the laggards (significant ice time guys only). Overall, Lubo Visnovsky has been doing the job, leading the club EV TOI, gross SC, and least SCA/60. His partner since Nov 18, Denis Grebeshkov, slightly outstrips him in SCF/60, but Lubo has the best differential. The “second pairing” of Tom Gilbert and Sheldon Souray have a slightly negative net differential, in keeping with their record of having faced the toughest competition. There is a big drop-off to the 5-6-7 grouping of Steve Staios, Ladi Smid, and Jason Strudwick, who have played with and against the weakest players and have been significantly outchanced in the process.

       The second list breaks down the group’s performance since our first summary back in early December. (See the comments section of the Dec 6 @S.J post). Since then the same 6 defenders have played every game in the same three pairings: 

    Player EV TOI SCF/EV SCA/EV SCF/60 SCA/60 Net/60
    71 289.4 115 93 23.8 19.3 +4.6
    37 275.2 109 91 23.8 19.8 +3.9
    77              266.5          91             97            20.5            21.8            -1.4   
    44           266.4     89          101        20.0        22.7        -2.7   
    24 252.9 59 79 14.0 18.7 -4.7
    5 247.3 60 76 14.6 18.4 -3.9
    Team 1597.7 523 537 19.6 20.2 -0.5

      The ice time has been pretty evenly divided at evens at 13-15 minutes per player over this 19-game segment. Visnovsky still leads the way, and his partner Grebs has moved up to second minutes. That pairing has continued to set the standard in chances generated and net positive differential. In the 19 games under review Grebeshkov posted a +8 GF/GA rating, Visnovsky +6. 

       The Gilbert-Souray pair is well back, generating 3-4 fewer chances per 60 and allowing 2-3 more (against tougher comp). In this period Gilbert posted an even rating, Souray -4.

       The pairing of Staios and Smid has been more stable than anything involving Strudwick, and have actually allowed the fewest SCA overall and per 60, however have generated much less than they have allowed. Nonetheless, in the games under review Smid posted a +3 ranking, Staios +1, so they have kept their heads above water where it matters most.  

     

    2 Responses to Scoring chances — defencemen at even strength

    1. January 25, 2009 at

      Great stuff Bruce.

      There has been talk of moving a Dman and even though Grebs is getting a raise I’m loathe to move any of them at this point.

      I guess that Lubo is driving that pair though so maybe a pump and dump is in order.

      The fact that the bottom pair is struggling (Matheson said they were a shutdown pair the other day – yeesh) points to this club needing a couple more guys up front to move the puck the other way, the uselessness of MacIntyre and, maybe, their own failings.

    2. Pingback: WHY THE EDMONTON OILERS MISS JARRET STOLL | Edmonton Journal

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