• Rebounds

    by  • December 28, 2005 • Uncategorized • 1 Comment

    Added some information on rebounds faced by goalies at even strength in the 2005-06 and 2003-04 stats areas. ES Save percentage, although it’s at least somewhat consistent, does jump around a fair bit. One of the things I look at when I’m wondering if a particular goaltender’s save percentage is for real is his save percentage on rebounds. I define a rebound as a shot being taken no more than three seconds after another shot.

    I suspect that save percentage on rebounds can jump around wildly without much change in the goalie’s performance. When you see how many goals are scored off rebounds and ask yourself whether the goalie had a chance, a lot of it seems to be out of his control. Sometimes he’s lucky and the shooter blows it. Sometimes he’s unlucky and the guy buries it. There are two years worth of numbers there, so it’s easy to look at a couple of different names and how they did in different seasons. It’s particularly interesting to look at guys like Kiprusoff and Raycroft, both of who seemingly came out of nowhere. While Raycroft had a spectacular .851 SV% on ES rebounds in 03-04, Kipper plugged along at .731. Both guys have fallen this year (.609 and .591 respectively), but because Kiprusoff was far less dependent on it, it’s hurt him a lot less.

    The Rangers look like they might be this year’s version of the 03-04 Boston Bruins, who saw Raycroft put up an .851 on rebounds and Potvin put up an .862. The Rangers duo of Weekes and Lundqvist have allowed just 4 goals on 34 ES rebounds for an .882 rebound save percentage. That’s six goals better than an average pairing would have produced. Add to that 7 points earned from OTL and SOW, and the Rangers are probably not nearly as good as their record indicates. It wouldn’t surprise me if they were the team in the East who are currently in the playoffs that ends up falling out.

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