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Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20874

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20868

The state of Georgia has had some trouble over the years in settling on a state flag. With yesterday’s trade of Ilya Kovalchuk, this seems like it would be appropriate. I don’t know that the return is that bad given what the Thrashers had to sell - 25 games of Kovalchuk at a cost of about $2MM - but I’m more than a little surprised that they would do this when the marginal value of standings points is so high for them right now.

There’s a great site called Sports Club Stats that breaks down a team’s probabilities of a playoff appearance. Their odds are based on a club’s play to date and won’t reflect the fact that the Thrashers have just abandoned Kovalchuk. They’ve got the Thrashers at a 37.2% chance of a playoff appearance at the moment.

In calculating their odds, they simulate the remaining season. They determine the probability of a team finishing with a given number of points and, assuming the team achieves that number of points, the probability of a playoff position. I’ve put the meat of their information relating to the Atlanta Thrashers into a graph to illustrate the point I’m driving at here.
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Jonathan Willis interviewed NDP sports critic Glenn Thibeault for a story on his blog at The Score. I’m just going to pull one quote but go read the whole thing - it will take your faith in government to a new low.

We want all aspects, and included in that is law enforcement. If you and I were playing tennis, and I didn’t like a shot that you put by me, and I jumped the net and struck you with my racket, I would be charged with assault, no questions asked. But when someone laces on some skates and they do a two-hander, like [Marty] McSorley did to [Donald] Brashear a few years back, or even the elbow that just happened recently, that comes up with a game or two suspension.

Next time you’re at work, just remember: part of your taxes go towards paying this fellow a salary. And expenses. And a pension. All so that he can campaign against a world in which Marty McSorley gets suspended for a game or two for his two hander to the head of Donald Brashear and doesn’t face criminal charges.

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20839

Mike Smith has a new blog post up at THN and it’s a beauty:

The same Leaf fans will likely have to watch their former prospect, Tuukka Rask, emerge as a top goalie for Boston. Trading Rask for Andrew Raycroft may well be talked about for years.

The Winnipeg Jets made such a trade once while I worked there. The late Mike Doran was running scouting for the Jets at the time. Patrick Roy had been through the previous draft. We targeted Roy to be our third round pick in the 1984 entry draft. During the season, Jets GM John Ferguson traded our third round pick to Montreal for Robert Picard. Montreal GM Serge Savard took Roy with our pick. The rest is history.

I don’t know if the rules with respect to age were once different but Patrick Roy was born on October 5, 1965. Under today’s rules (Alexander Ovechkin and John Tavares had the same issue), he wouldn’t have been eligible to be drafted until 1984. The year in which the Habs picked him.

Also - Picard was traded to Winnipeg on November 4, 1983. If Smith’s story mens anything, the Jets had apparently already developed their draft list to the point that they were targetting specific players for specific draft picks. In November.

Smith goes on to point out that the teams at the top of the standings have goalies who are really good (as evidenced by their win totals). He was once a highly paid hockey executive.

From Darren Dreger:

NHL sources say the Edmonton Oilers are pushing hard to move out bodies, but Oilers gm, Steve Tambellini hasn’t reached a point of desparation where he’s willing to sweeten the pot to make a deal.

For example, the Maple Leafs would likely move either Exelby or Stempniak for Oilers captain Ethan Moreau, if Edmonton throws in a draft pick to soothe the pain of swallowing Moreau’s contract which includes another year at $1.75 million and a $2 million cap hit.

I’m on the record as thinking that it’s not impossible for the Oilers to make the playoffs next year, if they can clear away some of the flotsam and jetsam that makes up the roster and add about six useful forwards and a backup goaltender. I’ve also thought it would be just about impossible to clear some of the crap off the roster. If Tambellini ends up spending draft picks to get rid of Lowe’s mess - well, he better be pretty certain that he can add the right pieces in the summer. Borrowing from the future to chase a Stanley Cup during the late years of Jarome Iginla’s dominant period is one thing. Doing it so that you have the cap room to offer $8MM to this year’s Chris Neil is another thing entirely.

You might want to hit the pause button after about the 1:45 mark.

I can’t find it anywhere but I said after the playoffs that the worst thing would be if Cam Ward just sort of went back to not being particularly good - basically steals a Stanley Cup from his hometown and is decidedly meh thereafter. You be the judge.

This clip is close to the end of my list of good memories featuring Ethan Moreau. It’s been a long four years. That little look and shared smirk with Staios…good stuff. When I finally succeed in blacking everything after June 5, 2006 from my memory, I’m glad that I’ll still have this.

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Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20826