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As is alluded to in the header on my site, I am on vacation in Costa Rica at the moment. The keyboards here are absolutely baffling, so I am going to be avoiding the use of contractions. I cannot have my brother be the only family member writing a travel blog for the consumption of friends and family, so I thought I would toss up a post here whenever I get the chance. This is different fare than is usually found here (albeit less frequently of late), so if it is not your thing, it is not your thing.

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I’ve long thought that if I was an NHL player of any skill, there’s no way in hell that I’d hire an agent and put him on commission. I’ve just never thought that the value was there. I was looking at Gillis v. Eagleson the other day and a passage jumped out at me:

The athletes had a choice of what services to purchase. If they chose only Eagleson’s negotiating services they were charged a small percentage of the yearly value of their contract. If they wanted financial management provided by Rae-Con they paid a larger percentage. Gillis chose both negotiation and financial management services. Gillis was charged either 6% for negotiation and 4% for financial management or 5% for each. There is uncertainty on that point but nothing turns on that.

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David Staples is doing Dan Tencer’s show right now. It’s been a pretty condescending 15 minutes so far. Staples is on for the whole hour - so far they’ve talked about how the blogs don’t have anything to offer but stats because people aren’t insiders. Now they’re talking libel and slander. I’d speculate that they’re both lawyers (otherwise, by David’s own standard, they couldn’t possibly have something useful to say about law) but Tencer is apparently unaware that government restraint on free speech is pretty limited.

On the same topic, Will Leitch of Deadspin almost got into a fist fight with Buzz Bissinger last night. For some reason, Braylon Edwards, of my brother-in-law’s Cleveland Browns was also on the panel. Enjoy:

I believe the gold standard for this kind of voodoo is Pierre Lebrun’s 12-3 mark from last season so considering I only went 6-2 in the opening round, I gotta run the rest of this table to take home that invisible crown.

Note: I know that Ty went 3-1 in his EC predictions but he didn’t post his WC calls so I’m going to disqualify him from this competition;)
Anyway, here we go and I’m going to try and do this without taking into account A: teams I need to win to help me win my playoff pool and B: teams that I absolutely cannot stand, ie Montreal.

East

Philly/Mtl : I was ultra unimpressed and shocked by how close the Bruins came to knocking off the Habs and it makes me wonder if this team team’s just too bloody young to be ready for prime time, ie the ‘07 Pens. I think that’s indeed the case but I still don’t believe that the Flyers are good enough to take them out. Maybe Philly can put a major dent in their chances if they really focus on the physical play but I’ll say the Habs PP wakes up and they win it in six.

NYR/Pit: I think this one’s going seven and the Pens pull it out because they’ve been lights-out at home for ~ 30 games now. Lundqvist is a potential x-factor with his 10 regular season shutouts and if the Rags third line had someone to play with Drury other than Dawes and Callahan, I might have to give them the edge. Overall, though, it’s hard to go against the Pens. Hossa and Crosby might not have clicked just yet but Hossa had tonnes of chances in the first round and considering we’re not talking about Matthew Lombardi here, those should eventually start to go in.
West

Det/Col: Osgood’s in net and the Wings have a bunch of forwards playing their way back into playing shape during the playoffs so I’m tempted to take the Avs. But Det has a very formidable second D pairing of Kronwall/Stuart so that should negate some of the Avs three-lined scoring attack. Plus, Avs forwards and everyone else got outplayed by a Wild backline that was without one of their top two guys so you’d almost need Theodore to repeat his R1 efforts for them to pull the upset. Wings in five.

Dal/SJ: I find it hard to believe that the Stars score these many goals, it’s hard to believe in Turco and I find it hard to believe that a D that young — though Zubov looks to be on the fast-track — can hold off a Sharks team that loves to work down low.  I’m really torn on this one and I’ll take the Sharks in seven just because of the home-ice advantage.

Let’s just get this out of the way: the East stinks. My guess is that only Montreal and Pittsburgh could have made the playoffs in the West. The Eastern Conference playoffs are, really, nothing more than an amusing diversion to produce an opponent for the anti-climactic Stanley Cup Finals while the real champion is being decided out west. Andy Dolphin has four Eastern teams in his top 15 ranked by Improved RPI. Jeff Sagarin has the same by his standard rating. I know that the thinking is that this stuff evens out in time, but if you’re a guy whose done a competent job running his hockey team (on the ice at least), say in Nashville, you must be looking longingly at the Eastern Conference.

With that said, on to the predictions:

MTL v. BOS: I’m not particularly wild about the Habs. I’m even less impressed by the Bruins. While I think that the Bruins actually match up alright at ES, at least in terms of possession. I figure that the Canadiens put them away on special teams. It’s been awhile since I’ve looked at the ES stats; Boston was really riding the save percentage for the longest time; it seemed like every time I looked they were around .950 at ES; they ended up at .930 5 v 5. I would guess that they fell off big time, which would make sense, given the pedigree of their goalies. MTL in 5.

PIT v. OTT: You can pretty much figure out what’s wrong with Ottawa just by looking at their +/-. It basically goes Pizza Line, Defencemen, Other Forwards. This isn’t just on the other forwards being something less than they were in the past; the goaltending hasn’t been there this year. Martin Gerber has been averageish and Ray Emery has sucked.

With that said, I’m not sure that it makes sense that everyone is lining up behind the Penguins, who are still a flawed team. The Pens were 17 goals better than the Pens this year. They got 31 games of .890 goaltending from Ray Emery; Pittsburgh, by way of contrast, got some of the best goaltending in the NHL from both of their guys; both Marc-Andre Fleury and Ty Conklin finished in the top five. Two points on this - first, they aren’t going to be playing both of them in the playoffs at the same time, which limits the advantage and second, on of them is Ty Conklin. The whole difference between these two teams can be found in the ES goaltending that the Pens got. I like Pittsburgh in this series, particularly given that they didn’t have Marian Hossa all year while the Sens did have Daniel Alfredsson and Mike Fisher but I think it’s going to be a long one and it wouldn’t surprise me if I’m wrong. PIT in 7.

WSH v. PHI: As I suggested, adding a goalie was a good idea for the Caps. A really good idea, as Cristobal Huet went 11-2-0 with a .936 save percentage down the stretch in Washington. If you’re looking for a team that resembles the Edmonton Oilers of 2006, it’s Washington. Sort of - the Oilers were a better PK team, but the outshooting at ES with bad goaltending all year is eerily familar. This is going to be an interesting series from the perspective of those of us who’ve been debating the value of outshooting in various threads lately. Washington should bury Philly at ES. I think that they’ll handle the Flyers pretty easily. WSH in 5.

NYR v. NJD: Another one for the outshooting fans and people who think that shooting percentage is driven a lot by luck. Both teams were good at outshooting at ES, although the Rangers were better. I think that the Rangers big edge is the PP and the fact that they’ve got more guys who can finish. I’ve been burned with this pick before but we’ve got all our blind spots and mine is respecting the Devils. Rangers in 6.

I’ll finish this tomorrow; San Jose (for sure) will be a pick. Colorado/Minnesota is a tougher call.

Curtis Stock has some news that ought to be of interest to Oilers fans.

It hasn’t been announced yet but Calgary Flames forward Daymond Langkow has signed a four-year $20 million, no-trade contract.

That all but guarantees that Kristian Huselius is on his way out unless he really steps it up in the playoffs.

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It seems somehow fitting that the Oilers season, which has been kept alive by an improbable amount of shootout points and an improbable run, ends on a couple of improbable goals for the Flames. It’s a disappointing finish to the season but the future is bright for the Oilers.

There’s going to be plenty of time to talk about the bright future for the Oilers but I think that it’s important to understand why the future is so bright. It’s bright because of Sam Gagner, Tom Gilbert, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, Denis Grebeshkov and Kyle Brodziak; five guys who the Oilers can pay relative peanuts to next year. Before I get into what I see as the implications of that, I want to point out something I said a few years ago:

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Stan Weir would have fit in just fine with this Oilers team that, as was (apparently) predicted by many, still have a shot to make the playoffs on the strength of their fifteen SO wins.

Also: I have yet to see mice on the ice in Rexall. The Leafs got another nineteen years out of the Gardens after this.

Unless I’m wrong - and I’m putting my figuring out here for people to poke holes in - the Oilers now control their own destiny. If they win their remaining games in regulation, it doesn’t matter what else happens - even if Nashville wins out and every other NW game is a three pointer, the Oilers are in. No scoreboard watching necessary.

Amazing stuff.

Update: Thanks to noted Stanley Cup losing beard shaver sacamano who points out that I’m wrong - I’d forgotten that they need to pass two of these teams.  (In my head, I’ve already counted Nashville out, as they’re now behind the Oilers.)  Props also to the guy who points out that I’ve got one game finishing in a tie.  So, a little early for this…maybe, if things go well, Wednesday night.

I don’t recall the last time that I did this, but with this being the biggest game since June of 2006, I think that it’s pretty much obligatory.

First Period

18:00 - Kid line out for a faceoff in their own end. Looks like MacT will be matching lines tonight; the Canucks had tossed Cowan/Linden/Rypien out on the ice.

16:49 - Sedins against GlenX and the Stortziaks. I know that MacT has talked about how he’s willing to play them against anyone but I’m still not buying it; a couple of chances and the puck spent the whole shift in the Oilers end before Pitkanen iced it.
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